Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Detroit Lions (0-0) at Kansas City (0-0)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (17-28-1 overall, 12-21-1 with Lions); Chiefs — Andy Reid (247-138-1 overall, 117-45 with Chiefs).
Last game: Season opener for both teams.
Last meeting: Sept. 29, 2019: Chiefs won, 34-30.
Key matchups
Lions LB Alex Anzalone vs. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: Patrick Mahomes is the NFL’s reigning MVP, and his favorite target is Kelce, the game’s best tight end. Kelce caught 110 passes last season and had topped 1,000 yards receiving every season Mahomes has been in the league, though he suffered a knee injury earlier this week and his availability for Thursday is in question. Anzalone is the Lions’ best every-down coverage linebacker, so he’s bound to match up with Kelce at some point Thursday even though the Lions are playing more zone coverage in the middle of the field. Anzalone said Kelce is especially dangerous on broken or extended plays, where he and Mahomes seem to be reading each other’s minds. “It’s crazy, you just see him, he’s rolling out (one) way and Kelce’s going (the other) way across the field and he’s looking for him,” Anzalone said. “So it’s like, if you’re near him or around him and he starts to scramble, someone has to get on 87. It’s insane.”
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Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie: The Lions may want to run the ball to keep Mahomes and Kansas City’s offense off the field, but they have some advantages in the passing game. All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones is holding out in a contract dispute, and if top Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed can’t go or is limited by his knee injury, Kansas City will be without two of its best defensive players. St. Brown has 196 catches in his first two seasons and is Jared Goff’s go-to target on third downs. He plays primarily out of the slot, which means he’ll match up against McDuffie plenty Thursday. McDuffie shined during Kansas City’s run to the Super Bowl and a big performance Thursday would cement his status as a breakout candidate this fall.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Chiefs run defense
The Lions had 100 or more yards rushing in their first six games last season and 12 of 17 games overall. They want to run the football. As Campbell has said, a good rushing attack creates explosive plays, and the Lions have an edge in the trenches with Jones out and their offensive line healthy.
At running back, the Lions are breaking in their new backfield tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery did not play in preseason games, but he’s a proven commodity who the power and vision to gain tough yards between the tackles. Gibbs is more explosive, a mismatch in the passing game and flew out as a receiver at times. They complement each other similarly to how Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift did last year.
The Chiefs gave up the eighth fewest rushing yards (107.2) in the NFL last season. Jones, the best defensive tackle in the NFL not named Aaron Donald, was a big part of that success and his absence is crushing. But Nick Bolton emerged last season as one of the league’s top linebackers and Kansas City has speed all over the field. Edge: Lions
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Lions pass offense vs. Chiefs pass defense
Jared Goff closed last season with a streak of 324 straight pass attempts without an interception, and Campbell said it’s imperative he take the same approach to ball security this year. “He’s very much a piece of the puzzle here,” Campbell said. “He’s not the end-all, be-all. We don’t need you to be a Hall-of-Fame quarterback out there. We just need you to run the offense, be efficient, make the throws that are there, be accurate when you (throw), because that’s what he does well. Get us into the right play, that’s all you’ve got to do.”
St. Brown leads a veteran receiving corps that lacks a traditional deep threat. He’s a dynamic slot weapon with some of the surest hands in the NFL, and he’s flanked by Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds and Marvin Jones on the outside. None averaged more than 13.1 yards per catch last season. Gibbs and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta figure to be a big part of the passing game and creative offensive coordinator will use both to help stretch the field.
The Chiefs ranked fifth in the NFL in sack percentage last season, recording one on about 9% of their opponents’ dropbacks. Jones was the only player with more than six sacks — he had 15.5 — and the Chiefs also will be without edge rusher Charles Omenihu because of suspension. Kansas City does have two young pass rushers in first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah and George Karlaftis, but their young secondary that starts three 2022 draft picks could be vulnerable to the deep shot. Edge: Lions
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Chiefs run offense vs. Lions run defense
Statistically, the Chiefs were a bottom-half-of-the-NFL rushing offense last year at 115.9 yards per game, but they were effective rushing when they put the ball on the ground, averaging more yards per attempt (4.72) than the Lions (4.54).
Isiah Pacheco won the starting job last season as a seventh-round pick because of his physical rushing style and appears healthy after missing much of the preseason with a shoulder injury. Jerrick McKinnon is Kansas City’s change-of-pace back and Clyde Edwards-Helaire should see time as the No. 3. Like the Lions, the Chiefs have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
The Lions made a change at nose tackle, with Benito Jones beating out Isaiah Buggs for the starting job, but mostly return the same front seven they had last year. Charles Harris is back from injury at outside linebacker, and he’s top-notching as an edge run defender. The Lions need Derrick Barnes to build on his strong preseason if he starts at linebacker in the middle of the defense. Edge: Chiefs
Chiefs pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn called Mahomes “a special player” who is “going to wear a gold jacket at some point,” and it’s not an exaggeration to say he’s the best quarterback in the NFL. A two-time MVP, Mahomes can be magical on the field. He throws receivers open from a variety of arm angles, extends plays in the pocket with his feet and has an uncanny connection with Kelce at tight end.
The Chiefs don’t have any superstars at receiver, but the unit plays up because of who is throwing the ball. Skyy Moore could take a major leap in his second season given his connection with Mahomes, and Kadarius Toney showed big-play ability in his limited time with the Chiefs last season after coming over in a trade with the New York Giants. Toney is expected to play Thursday after missing time in camp with a knee injury, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling had a career-high 42 catches last season in his first year with the Chiefs.
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The Lions overhauled their secondary this offseason and they expect the group to be a strength this fall. Cam Sutton and Jerry Jacobs will start at cornerback, with C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Kerby Joseph at safety and Brian Branch in the slot. There are a lot of playmakers in the back end, but it will be incumbent upon Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill and Josh Paschal to get contained pressure on Mahomes or he will pick the Lions apart. Edge: Chiefs
Special teams
The Lions have fielded one of the NFL’s best special teams units for two years running under Dave Fipp, and given the improved talent on the roster, that’s not likely to change this fall. Three starting-caliber linebackers, Barnes, Jack Campbell and Malcolm Rodriguez, will play key roles on the coverage units and Raymond is one of the best punt returners in the NFL. The Lions do have a question at kicker, where Riley Patterson won the job with a mediocre camp. Field goals beyond 50 yards are a roll of the dice, but Fipp and Campbell love to gamble on fourth down and with trick special teams plays, especially in big games, so that might not be a huge issue Thursday.
The Chiefs finished last in Rick Gosselin’s special teams rankings last season — the Lions were sixth — in large part because they lost five fumbles on returns and dealt with injuries to kicker Harrison Butker. Butker is healthy now, Richie James should stabilize the return positions, and Kansas City still has top-notch talent for its cover units and one of the league’s most respect coordinators in Dave Toub. Punter Tommy Townsend was the best punter in the NFL last year. Edge: Chiefs
Prediction
The Lions have had Sept. 7 circled on their calendar since they found out they drew the defending champs in the NFL’s kickoff game in May. As Anzalone said Monday, “It’s a great stage” and big proving ground “for a lot of us.” The Lions believe they stack up well with the Chiefs. They caught a break with Jones’ holdout, and they haven’t hid from the fact that Thursday is a chance to announce their presence as a legitimate Super Bowl contender to the entire league.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lions pull the upset, but I’m not predicting it. Mahomes is out-of-this-world good, Arrowhead is one of the best homefield advantages in football, and the environment will be electric for the banner-raising ceremony the Chiefs never really had after their last Super Bowl because of COVID-19. Defending champs have won four of their past five openers and Kansas City has won eight straight in Week 1, five by double digits. Pick: Chiefs 31, Lions 27
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Lions can upset defending champs
