Cowboys vs. Commanders: Predictions, odds, fantasy, and how to watch Thanksgiving Day game
An NFC East matchup graces our screens this Thanksgiving as the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) take on the Washington Commanders (4-7) in Arlington.
The Cowboys haven't had immense success on Thanksgiving, going 2-3 in their last five contests. They will be looking to turn their fortune around against a Washington squad that just lost to Tommy DeVito and the lowly New York Giants. There will definitely be plenty of opportunity for the Cowboys offense to feast on a defense that just allowed DeVito to throw for three touchdowns. Here's how to watch.
How to watch Cowboys-Commanders:
When: Thursday, Nov. 23, 4:30 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Cable TV: FOX
Streaming: FOX Sports app; NFL+; YouTube TV; FuboTV
Stream the game: Catch NFL action this Thanksgiving with Fubo
NFL odds: Cowboys vs. Commanders betting lines, odds
The Cowboys are favored to defeat the Commanders, according to the BetMGM NFL odds. Looking to wager? Check out the best mobile sports betting apps offering NFL betting promos in 2023.
All odds as of Tuesday afternoon:
Spread: Cowboys (-11)
Moneyline: Cowboys (-600); Commanders (+425)
Over/under: 48.5
Fantasy News:
Cowboys running back Tony Pollard had his first big fantasy performance in a long while after facing a lackluster Carolina rush defense in Week 11. This Thanksgiving, the good times should keep rolling.
Washington traded away two of their best defensive linemen in Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline. Their absence was felt in Week 11 as New York Giants halfback Saquon Barkley ran all over the Commanders for 83 yards on just 14 carries. He also added two touchdowns through the air.
Pollard has been very inefficient during the 2023 season. Although he has been given every opportunity to be an elite fantasy halfback, he has not shown any ability to breakaway or find the endzone this season. Those were two of his greatest strengths in 2022. Through eleven games, Pollard has only averaged five yards per carry three times. He also has not been as much a part of the passing attack as we would've liked to have hope. Against Washington, Pollard is a cautious start, hoping that his solid performance against Carolina was the kick into gear that Pollard needed.
Other Cowboys you should start include quarterback Dak Prescott, tight end Jake Ferguson, and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.
On Washington's side of the ball, halfback Brian Robinson has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners this year. That said, he may face tougher luck against a Cowboys defense that has not allowed opposing halfbacks to record more than four receptions in four straight games. For the season, the Cowboys have not surrendered more than six receptions to opposing running backs in a single game. Robinson does not need a plethora of targets to be effective, but against a Dallas defense that is also pretty stout against the run, the lack of receiving upside could mean a poor day for Robinson.
There aren't too many must-starts on Washington aside from Robinson. Wideout Terry McLaurin is a great receiver, but inconsistent as a fantasy receiver. Tight end Logan Thomas is a high-floor option with a pretty low ceiling most weeks, and wideout Jahan Dotson is a high-upside option with a very, very, very low floor. Against Dallas' tough defense, it's probably best to sit every Commander on your roster.
Perhaps you could start quarterback Sam Howell off sheer volume alone. No team passes more than the Commanders. However, the Dallas Cowboys are turnover machines. While Howell is always a candidate for 15-plus fantasy points, it's far more likely he ends the day with fewer than 7. Unless you are thin at quarterback, Howell is probably best suited for the bench this week.
Predictions:
Sportsbook Wire: Cowboys 34, Commanders 17
Writer Payton Shanks is a huge fan of the Cowboys covering the 11-point spread this week. Shanks points out that Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Washington and 7-3 ATS in its 10 games overall this season, covering as the favorite in all 7 of its wins. Washington meanwhile, has just two wins ATS in their seven losses this season. In a game that Washington should almost certainly lose, covering the spread likely isn't in the cards.
Fox Sports: Dallas 35, Washington 14
Fox Sports is expecting a three-possession blowout from this game, noting that in games where the Cowboys were favored by 11 or more points, they still hold a modest 2-1 record ATS. Not to mention, Dallas has a 4-1 record against Washington in their last five games.
Sports Illustrated: Cowboys (-11.5)
Sports Illustrated points out that the Commanders have the second-worst Thanksgiving record (4-8) of all teams with at least 10 Thanksgiving games played. Only the Arizona Cardinals have a worse record all-time. Although divisional games tend to be closer than most other games, the difference in talent between both teams is vast. Washington is allowing a league-high 27.7 points per game and Dallas' offense is as hot as anyone in the league.
Athlon: Dallas 34, Washington 14
Another blowout pick. Athlon reasons that while Washington's passing offense has been better than expected, ranking inside the NFL's top-ten in terms of yards, Dallas has been great at forcing quarterbacks to make bad throws and commit turnovers.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Cowboys vs. Commanders: predictions, picks, odds and fantasy players
