Here’s how Cowboys Prescott, McCarthy have arrived at career crossroads

For the first time since joining forces almost four years ago, quarterback Dak Prescott and head coach Mike McCarthy have reached a crossroads of epic importance.

Before we move on, a quick note to longtime detractors of Prescott. No, you weren’t right all along. The game on Sunday was not a “Now you see what I’ve been saying!” moment. The Prescott who played on Sunday was bad and a deterioration from what he has been. He was really good in 2022 on all the throws which weren’t intercepted. He had in the past been a mobile QB and capable of playing well when the pocket wasn’t there. He wasn’t that on Sunday and he hasn’t been that this season and this article will discuss where he and his head coach go from here.

The duo’s first seasons together involved trying times, to be sure. COVID protocols threw the entire league for a loop in McCarthy’s first year and then Prescott’s gruesome broken leg happened in Week 5, ending things prematurely.

There’s been ups and downs since, but overall regular-season success has buffered the pairing despite playoff success continued to escape the organization. That patience can only last so long for owner Jerry Jones.

Now, after the club announced to the world they viewed Sunday’s game against the 49ers, the organization that ended their prior two seasons, was a measuring stick game, now they’ve reached a tipping point.

These Cowboys are not good enough.

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 08: Head coach Mike McCarthy of the Dallas Cowboys is seen on the field prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

The offensive line is healthy. The wide receiver group is healthy and deep. The defensive line rotation is healthy and deep. Yes, the secondary is missing their general in Trevon Diggs, but the remaining corners are still quite good. The safeties were considered good enough to reward two of them with extensions in the off-season.

All of that added up to the teams worse loss in over a decade.

While Dan Quinn’s defense deserves demerits for their lackluster showing, at least they’ve proven competitive against the 49ers before.  Making progress and putting up a fight against San Francisco was the reason offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was shown the door.

McCarthy wanted a different approach to the offense. He wanted to be in charge of the ship if he was going to face an ultimatum for his security.

But there was no progress from January. The run game didn’t run. The pass game didn’t pass inspection.

And because of these failures, when the team publicly claimed readiness for the test, both McCarthy and Prescott have to be on notice.

This may not be the duo the team can move forward with.

Prescott's regression

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 08: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys reacts on the bench during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

The quarterback on the field on Sunday was skiddish in the pocket, and didn’t make the right or necessary decisions.  He looked like a QB who was too much in his own head and one who lacked the confidence necessary to win against a tough opponent.

On top of that, Prescott looked physically slow. It’s fine that Prescott doesn’t scramble anymore, but it was painfully obvious that he no longer has the wheels nor the desire to escape the pocket and make defenses pay for leaving escape lanes.

If defenders aren’t considering him a threat, that makes his passing options more difficult to access.

The leg injury Prescott suffered in 2020 was hideous, and Prescott had to undergo a second surgery two months after the first because things were not progressing correctly. And while his supporters have rallied around his ability to come back, it stands to reason that a medical repair of that magnitude will have long-term impact.  The ability to perform as one did at peak physical condition is one every person, athlete or not, deals with in aging and it makes perfect sense that three years after the repair, the wear and tear on Prescott’s mobility could accelarate and cause a decline.

On Sunday, on a grass surface that doesn’t run as fast as AT&T’s turf against a defense with grass quickness, it was woefully obvious.

Now, perhaps that’s not a long-term thing. Often times players don’t disclose every ailment and perhaps Prescott’s legs weren’t under him as they normally are and next week or after the bye week his legs feel better. There’s always a chance that requires such a caveat, but it appears there may be an issue there.

Prescott is an extremely intelligent quarterback who wins with his mind more than any physical attribute. But his processing and decision making was not ideal on Sunday, and combined with a lesser physical effort, he’s reached a crossroads where he may not be able to maintain his status as a top-10 QB.

And if he can’t, Dallas has major decisions to make.

McCarthy as a play caller, Schottenheimer as play designer

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 08: Head coach Mike McCarthy of the Dallas Cowboys is seen on the field prior to a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Is McCarthy, and by extension offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer doing Prescott any favors with the system design? It doesn’t appear to be the case.

Again, last year’s interception were a huge departure from the QB Prescott had been to that point. He was not a turnover-prone QB prior to 2022, though his turnover-worthy play percentage was up in the last four years of his career compared to the first three.

2016: 2.4%
2017: 2.8%
2018: 2.7%
2019: 3.2%
2020: 3.6%
2021: 3.2%
2022: 3.8%

None of those totals are even egregious, though certainly would like them lower. The issue, again, last year was that while Prescott was being more aggressive, his lackluster receiving core was selling him out with dropped passes, skyrocketing his interception total.

McCarthy stepped in, and has basically neutered the risk factor from the Cowboys offense. Is the tradeoff worth it? Sure, when playing from ahead against inferior opponents, but Dallas has been unable to successfully conjure up a successful response when trailing and or against a true tough opponent like San Francisco.

The early evidence is that Dallas has swung too far in the opposite direction.

Here’s Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner breaking down the terrible play design that accompanied one of Prescott’s three interceptions on the night. A double-slant run to the short side of the field where both of the route runners started their breaks at the same level, basically allowing one defender to cover two receivers simultaneously.

After Sunday’s three-interception performance, Prescott’s TWP percentage has jumped to 2.7% on the season. With his back against the wall, Prescott reverted so apparently the team wasn’t able to coach those mistakes out of him.

Instead, they chose to remove the risk from the offense, and that’s a scary proposition for what the coaching staff and Prescott have in the bag to try and correct things moving forward.

12 games remaining

Jul 31, 2023; Oxnard, CA, USA; Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy talks to quarterback Dak Prescott (4) during training camp at the Marriott Residence Inn-River Ridge playing fields. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

But there is time left. The Cowboys still have more than 2/3rds of their games left to play. Dallas has a ton of huge games left to play, including at least four games against teams that are of the same caliber opponent as the 49ers.

Dallas will play at Philadelphia, Bufflo and Miami down the stretch of the season, while hosting the Eagles, Seahawks and Lions. While the latter two are trying to prove their caliber, the others are definitive tests for the Cowboys.

McCarthy and Prescott have arrived at a crossroads. Their offseason plan and approach is showing serious flaw in the design.

And while Prescott’s 2024 cap hit of nearly $60 million grabs all of the headlines and seemingly has forced Dallas into a position where they have to extend him to make it palatable, there may be a bullet to bite there if he cannot recover his play. He’ll almost certainly get another year to prove it, but he is not giving the team much incentive to hurry up and extend him.

Meanwhile McCarthy doesn’t even have that built-in buffer. After convincing the Dallas front office to not retain Moore and that he was going to be the Prescott whisperer, his leash is even shorter.

The fork is there, which direction will the duo travel?

Story originally appeared on Cowboys Wire