Could Western Carolina do the unthinkable on Saturday? Unlikely, but not impossible
“So, you’re telling me there’s a chance.” – Jim Carrey (Lloyd Christmas), Dumb and Dumber
Arkansas has a really solid track record of opening seasons with a win. Since 2000, the Hogs are 19-3 in season openers. This year, all signs are pointing towards Arkansas being 20-3 in openers when Western Carolina comes to Little Rock on Saturday.
According to ESPN’s FPI, the Razorbacks are heavy favorites with a 99 percent chance to send the Catamounts home with a loss.
But as we all know, games aren’t played on paper and college football is known for upsets. And while Arkansas has fared well in season-openers, they’ve had their fair share of struggles at Little Rock in recent history.
That could open the door for Western Carolina to do the unthinkable if the Hogs aren’t fully prepared.
Let’s take a look at three reasons why the Catamounts could leave Little Rock victorious, and three reasons why Arkansas will take care of business on Saturday.
Arkansas wins: Talent and depth
It’s quite obvious that Arkansas’ roster is much more talented than Western Carolina’s. Just by being in the FBS, the Hogs’ talent pool is much deeper than the Catamounts.
Even in down seasons, Arkansas has a massive advantage over their FCS counterparts. This season, Sam Pittman has, in my opinion, the deepest and most talented roster he’s had since taking over in 2019. Western Carolina might be equipped to put up a fight, but eventually Arkansas’ depth should win out.
Arkansas wins: History on Hogs' side
Western Carolina enters Saturday with a pretty impressively bad record against FBS foes. Dating back to 1977, the Catamounts are 0-61 against FBS competition. That record includes being 0-20 against teams from the SEC. While it’s easy to get caught up in a David vs. Goliath type of storyline, history is clearly on Arkansas’ side.
Arkansas wins: Home field advantage
The debate around Arkansas playing football games in Little Rock is very much a hot-button issue among fans. While it’s lost a lot of the luster of the 1990s and 2000s, it’s still very much a home game for the Hogs. This isn’t a neutral site where the crowd is split down the middle. All 45,000-50,000 fans will be cheering for the Razorbacks on Saturday.
WCU wins: Hogs struggle with new offense, defense
One of the ways that Western Carolina could hang around in Saturday’s game would be if Arkansas has major struggles with Dan Enos’ offense and Travis Williams’ defense. Many may overlook that the Hogs are implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball, and if things don’t go smoothly the Catamounts will have chances to capitalize on that.
WCU wins: Injury issues for Hogs
The biggest cause of Arkansas’ 2022 going south was injuries. Sure, there were a lot of other underlying factors in the team’s collapse, but injuries in the secondary and to KJ Jefferson were catalysts to the disappointing year. If Arkansas loses a bunch of key guys to that notoriously rough War Memorial Stadium turf, the makeup of Saturday’s game could drastically change. Not only that, but a lot of the optimism for this season could diminish as well.
WCU wins: Head coaching experience
While this one may be a reach, it’s still a fact. Bell has been a head coach at three college schools now. He was at Jacksonville for nine seasons, Valdosta State for three seasons and has been at Western Carolina since 2021.
On the flip side, Sam Pittman is entering his fourth season as Arkansas’ head coach. Will the head coaching experience discrepancy matter on Saturday? Highly doubtful. But the Catamounts do have the edge in the tenured head coach category, at least.
