Could Dante Fowler’s post-Rams drop-off hurt Leonard Floyd’s free-agent value?
Teams seeking pass-rush help in free agency this year will undoubtedly have eyes for Leonard Floyd, assuming the Rams don’t sign him to an extension before March. He’ll be one of the top edge defenders on the market, being 28 years old and coming off a career year in 2020.
That was almost exactly the case with Dante Fowler Jr. last year when he left the Rams in free agency. He was 25 years old, coming off a career year with the Rams and cashed in with a three-year, $45 million deal from the Falcons.
Unfortunately, Fowler hasn’t lived up to that contract after one season in Atlanta, recording a career-low three sacks with only four tackles for loss and eight QB hits. That was after he had a career-high 11.5 sacks, QB hits and 16 tackles for loss.
Could teams be scared off by Fowler’s post-Rams regression when it comes to signing Floyd this offseason? The common denominator, of course, is that both players lined up alongside Aaron Donald when they had their best seasons in the NFL.
In 2019 before joining the Rams, Floyd had three sacks and three tackles for loss with the Bears. In 2018, Fowler had two sacks in seven games with the Jaguars before the Rams traded for him mid-season.
They’re eerily similar situations and it’s reasonable to think teams could be hesitant to back up the Brink’s truck for Floyd after seeing Fowler’s drop-off when he left Donald and the Rams. According to Spotrac, Floyd’s market value is projected as $13.1 million per year. He is a bit older than Fowler was when he hit free agency, but you could argue Floyd is a more well-rounded edge defender, playing well against the run even when he doesn’t thrive as a pass rusher.
Teams should scout Floyd based on his own merits and evaluation, but it’s hard not to be someone wary of whether he’ll fall off similar to the way Fowler did without Donald drawing double-teams 70% of the time.
In doing so, Donald opens up one-on-one opportunities for the team’s other pass rushers. For example, Floyd was doubled less than 20% of the time in 2020. Edge rushers aren’t doubled often as it is – not like Donald and other interior defenders – but the attention that Donald draws makes life a lot easier for the Rams’ outside linebackers.
Without Donald, it’s reasonable to wonder if Floyd will become more like the player he was in Chicago two seasons ago than the one he was in Los Angeles this past year.
