Could an Arizona defection be the last straw for the teetering Pac-12 Conference?
It looks like the Pac-12 is done as a major football and men’s basketball conference.
The speculation has gotten louder than ever with the latest rumors centering on whether the University of Arizona will be the pin that pops the Pac-12 bubble.
Here’s a Q&A, based on my reporting:
Q: Can the Pac-12 survive?
A: Yes, if the conference can maintain 10 teams. First, Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff needs to keep Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon and Washington. Then, he needs to go get San Diego State, or some other major football and basketball school hanging around waiting for a shot at the big time.
Q: If this is ongoing, why are things any different today?
A: University and conference stakeholders have been meeting regularly since Colorado announced plans last week to bolt for the Big 12.
Kliavkoff is under pressure to lay out a new media rights deal, basically a TV contract that pumps millions of dollars into the athletic departments of affiliated schools.
The rumors suggest that Arizona is ready to bolt for the Big 12 and that Oregon and Washington have been flirting with the Big Ten.
Generally, these sorts of whispers aren’t worth turning down your TV to try to hear clearly, but this time it’s different. This time university presidents and athletic directors are expecting to hear actual numbers.
Right now, Pac-12 schools get about $37 million each, a number that’s expected to drop with the loss of USC, UCLA and, yes, Colorado.
Future imperfect: Big 12, Big Ten expansions threaten Pac-12 Conference survival
By comparison, Big Ten schools get closer to $60 million, SEC schools get about $50 million and Big 12 schools are in the $45 million range.
Kliavkoff needs to get to $30 million or he’s got a problem.
If it’s only about the money, the decision is clear: The Pac-12 is going to fall apart.
Q: Why is UA in focus? Why not Oregon or Washington?
A: There’s a lot of money in the newly expanded College Football Playoff, and the Pac-12 is guaranteed a spot.
Oregon and Washington are always contenders to win the conference and reach the CFP.
That’s not the case for Arizona. UA is a basketball school, and CFP money is no enticement to stay.
Q: What about Arizona State?
A: What about it? The Sun Devils don’t compete for conference titles in either sport, and that’s only going to get worse as the school sputters to figure out the best way to pay players under NIL rules.
Q: So, what does Arizona want?
A: Supposedly, UA wants a major financial guarantee from the Pac-12 or it’s going to take its blue-blood basketball program in search of a better deal.
That means the Big 12.
A UA defection would leave the Pac with just eight teams. And why would an eight-team conference be guaranteed a playoff spot? That’s a lawsuit waiting to happen.
If UA goes, it’s hard to imagine a world in which Oregon and Washington stick around.
Q: So what would the Pac-12 be?
A: Without USC, UCLA, Colorado, UA, Oregon and UW, the Pac-12 would scramble to fill out the conference with schools like Utah State, Wyoming, the Idaho schools and maybe a Dakota or two?
That roster doesn’t put much “power” in Power 5.
From here, ASU is all-but-certain to go for the Big 12 in this sort of scenario.
Q: So it’s over? Is there a Hail Mary?
A: What about a partnership with the ACC?
An ACC pairing would improve the Pac-12’s geographic footprint, which would look good to advertisers.
Also, there could be a wave of nostalgia and a desire to do the right thing by student-athletes and fans.
It’s not in anyone’s best interest to have dozens of small sports zigzagging across the country just to turn a buck.
With that said, it looks like the Pac-12 is done as a major football and basketball conference.
We should know in the next day or two where things stand.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona could hold key to the Pac-12's future as a power conference
