Couch: Analyzing next season's Michigan State basketball roster as it might unfold – player by player
There’s a lot we don’t know yet about next season’s Michigan State basketball roster. Is everyone who’s expected back coming back? Does that include Mady Sissoko? It's likely MSU will add a big man in the transfer portal? And, if so, will that impact the decisions of MSU’s other big guys? They could use some size on the wing, too. Who stays? Who goes? Who joins them?
MSU has a good NIL situation in men's basketball and a coach who sounds determined to reignite the program, or "die trying," as Tom Izzo said Saturday.
Xavier Booker has said he’s returning. My sense from Jaden Akins is that he will, too. That’s a good start, if that holds. I’d also bet that Tre Holloman and Jeremy Fears Jr. are part of next year’s roster. Otherwise, in this age, it’s hard to be sure. At some point, someone unexpected is going to leave MSU’s program. And it could be inconvenient. That’s just how this works now.
If everyone returns who I think MSU's coaches want back or who, themselves, want to come back, including Sissoko — who’s got one year left of eligibility — MSU will have one scholarship available for the transfer portal to use on a center or 4-man or sizable wing. Or not at all. I’d be very surprised if it’s the latter.
Based on who I think is more likely than not on next year’s MSU roster, here’s a look at each scholarship player, — their situation, potential role and what the Spartans need from them:
GUARDS / WINGS
Jaden Akins, 6-4, senior
Akins’ didn’t take the leap from his sophomore to junior year that he hoped. He finished at 36.4% on 3-point tries, down from 42.2% a year earlier, though was relied on more for volume — up from 3.9 long-range attempts per game to 5.0. He was, though, more efficient inside the arc this season, shooting nearly 46%, up from about 42%. His rebounds, assists, steals and blocks were all almost identical year over year.
The question is: Does he still have that leap in him? Can he go from a 10.4 points-per-game scorer to someone who’s giving MSU 13 to 15 points each night and doing so efficiently, while still being the most important component of the Spartans’ gap-help defense? I think so.
Part of the reason Akins’ looked so similar as a junior to his sophomore season is there was very little change to his role and not much room for it with A.J. Hoggard and Tyson Walker both returning. Next season, MSU will be in need of a shot creator and featured shooter at the guard and wing spots. Akins will have the chance to be that guy. It’s the role he wanted when he returned last year.
RELATED Michigan State's NCAA tournament win was redemption for roommates Jaden Akins and Mady Sissoko
Tre Holloman, 6-2, junior
Holloman took a sizable jump this season, going from placeholder and bit player at point guard as a freshman to plus-player and vital contributor at both guard positions as a sophomore. Holloman didn’t have a great NCAA tournament, but by then he’d long since proven that he’s an intriguing and important piece going forward. He more than doubled his minutes this past season (to 19.8) and point production (six times scoring in double figures) and was the Spartans most efficient 3-point shooter (at 42.5%), while being a consistently dogged defender.
His role should expand again next season, whether he starts or not. I think there are leadership qualities that we’ll start to see now that he’s an upperclassman and he doesn’t have a couple 23-year-olds in front of him. There’s a world in which he still comes off the bench, as a sixth man behind Jeremy Fears Jr. and Jaden Akins and sometimes plays alongside them — which could be the team’s finishing lineup.
The primary question with Holloman involves his ceiling as a player. When a player makes the strides he did from his freshman to sophomore year, you have wonder: Does he have another big step or two in him? MSU needs him as a ballhandler, shot creator and scorer next season. His continued development will partly determine what sort of season MSU has.
MSU is benefiting from Tre Holloman's sophomore season, which began with believing in him
Jeremy Fears Jr., 6-2, sophomore
There were other what-ifs with MSU’s basketball team this past season, but “what if Fears had been available from January on” is definitely a big one. From a basketball perspective, when Fears was shot in the leg back home in Illinois just before Christmas, it took away the Spartans’ best accountability for starting point guard A.J. Hoggard, just as Fears seemed to be emerging. We'll never know what sort of player Fears might have been by February and what difference that might have made.
We do know this: Tom Izzo is planning on having Fears as his starting point guard next season and as the guy running his team. Assuming Fears is fine physically — and we don’t know if there will be lasting ramifications to his leg during his college career — Izzo and Co. are hoping Fears will be ready to be a 25-minute-per game point guard and a team leader from Day 1 next season. There is star potential there. The question is if and how quickly Fears becomes that guy.
Coen Carr, 6-5, sophomore
Carr was a ton of fun to watch at times as a freshman — because he’s an elite athlete and top-tier dunker. But he was fairly limited as a player. Nothing wrong with that, provided he realizes he’s got loads of work to do this spring and summer. Carr isn’t a bad shooter. He just needs reps at it. And to become someone who scares defenses when he puts the ball on the floor because they don’t want to see him at the rim. His defensive acumen improved throughout the season and he more regularly rebounded with purpose.
Carr is in a rare category of dunker to play in this state — up there with Jason Richardson (Saginaw/MSU) and Doug Anderson (Kalamazoo/Mott/Detroit) over the last 25 years. MSU’s Shannon Brown might be on that list, too. There might be someone else I'm missing. But the list is three- to five-fingers long. That’s it. Richardson and Brown became NBA pros, known for more than their above-the-rim highlights. Anderson’s game never matched his dunks. Carr should do every thing he can to mirror Richardson’s development.
Carr’s role next season could be anything from a 15-minute-per-game role player who grabs rebounds, dunks and defends but can’t space the floor, to a 28-minute-per-game headliner who’s a bear for opponents to deal with.
Gehrig Normand, 6-5, redshirt freshman
Redshirting Normand this past season was a wise decision — for his sake and potentially the program’s — even if there were points along the way where he might have been able to help. Normand still has four full seasons of eligibility remaining and now also has a better base of strength and understanding of the college game as he begins his career. Normand is like a bonus freshman in next year’s class, but with more more seasoning. He’s a good athlete with an intriguing all-around game, but his best quality is that he’s a shooter. And MSU could use another one of those.
I’ll be surprised if Normand doesn’t have a decent-sized role next season, minimum 12 minutes per game. His shooting should help space the floor with just about every lineup MSU puts on the court. Between Normand, Akins, Holloman and Xavier Booker, there’s no reason not to have at least two shooters in every lineup. Normand's a guy who can create a shot off the bounce, too. He should have a good career in front of him.
Jase Richardson, 6-3, freshman
Jase Richardson, the son the aforementioned MSU legend Jason Richardson, might be the most game-ready freshman next season. He's a point guard, but he can play either guard position. His versatility will help him get on the court and potentially help MSU. He’s a good athlete — not quite like his dad. His feel for the game and body control when attacking the basket are major strengths. I’d be surprised if he’s not a rotation player, perhaps a direct backup to Fears, if Holloman starts off the ball.
RELATED: Couch: Jase Richardson is following his dad to MSU, but his mom shaped his game
Kur Teng, 6-4, freshman
It’ll be interesting to see how ready Teng is as a freshman. There’s some Josh Langford in his game. He’s a skilled guard and wing more than he is a pure shooter. I think he could be a really good college player in time. And he’ll have time. There should be enough in front of him at MSU at the guard and wing spots that whatever he provides in his first season is a bonus.
POWER FORWARDS / CENTERS
Mady Sissoko, 6-9, fifth-year senior
There’s a decent chance Sissoko is back on next year’s team. My sense is he wants to come back. If he does, the question is how that alters other roster decisions — for both Izzo and his staff and for MSU’s other centers — and whether he understands his role might be diminished. Even the best version of Sissoko, which we saw in the postseason, is an off-the-bench, energy-and-rebounding-providing role player in the Big Ten. He can be a useful player on certain nights and in certain matchups. But you can’t go into a season counting on him to be the answer. If he were two or three inches taller, his game, limitations and all, might work as a starting center. Instead, MSU still needs one, regardless of what Sissoko does.
Carson Cooper, 6-11, junior
I still think Cooper could wind up being a quality big man in the Big Ten before he’s done. He didn’t take the jump I thought he might this past season. But he did improve. He was a solid rebounder, better than 10 per 40 minutes, has a better feel for things than he gets credit for and has better hands than he sometimes showed. He still needs to add strength and develop a move or two that make him a threat to score on the low block. There hasn’t been enough development in that area with MSU’s big guys — Jaxon Kohler came ready made in that sense to some degree. The problem for MSU is whether it can trust Cooper to do that this offseason, so he’s ready to be the center MSU needs him to be next year. The better play: Bring in a seasoned big man and if Cooper beats him out, terrific.
Jaxon Kohler, 6-9, junior
Kohler is another what-if for this past season. He might have had the best summer of any player. He reshaped his body, had the green light to shoot 3s, was a fit next to Xavier Booker in early practices and gave the Spartans a big man they could play through offensively in the post. MSU probably should have redshirted Kohler after his foot injury kept him out into January. He did play double-digit minutes 10 times after returning and had his best game in a needed win against Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament, but, man, it feels shortsighted. If Kohler still had three years left, he’d be in a better place in evaluating his own career and the idea of MSU adding another big man this offseason wouldn’t feel like it was potentially taking such a chunk out of the time he has left.
Kohler probably doesn’t have the size or vertical athletic ability to be the defender he needs to be to start at center in the Big Ten against every matchup. But that’s why he's such a good fit with Xavier Booker — offensively, Kohler can play center, with Booker at the 4, while on defense, Booker’s length can make up for that. Looking at next season’s roster, there are likely minutes to be had at the 4 for Kohler, too.
Kohler has so much skill. That injury forced him to try to fit in to a season that was already rolling and had already gone off the tracks from their original plans with him. I’d like to see them take another swing at those plans, especially those minutes with Booker and Kohler together.
Xavier Booker, 6-11, sophomore
What Booker becomes by next season will determine a lot of next season. He is the most likely NBA pro on the roster, with length and skill and athletic ability for days. If Booker improves this offseason at the rate he did in season, he could be in for a high-impact sophomore season. His shooting at his size is special. He might have only made 16 of 48 3s this past season, but he didn’t look like a 33% shooter. He’s a pure shooter. He put on 20 pounds during the season. He’ll probably put on a few more.
If Booker is the player I think he can be next season — not a finished product, but a starter and double-digit scorer and rim-protector — next season will be his last at MSU. The NBA will take him after that. Too much length and skill and shooting. The shooting at his size especially. MSU has to push to get everything out of him it can and for him to develop as much as possible this offseason. Booker now knows what it takes. That’ll help.
Jesse McCulloch, 6-10, freshman
McCulloch can shoot. He’s not just a capable shooter. He’s a shooter. That’s who he is. As a pick-and-pop big man, McCulloch will be an impact player at MSU. I just don’t know how quickly. While there might be minutes at the 4 spot to be had next season, McCulloch’s defense and rebounding will determine whether he’s ready for rotation minutes. Either way, this was a good get, the sort of player whose 3-point shot will be a real weapon a couple years from now.
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State basketball: Analyzing next season's projected roster
