How concerned should Panthers fans be with Sam Darnold’s production on the Jets?

Context is everything in football, especially when it comes to evaluating the quarterback position. Whether it’s fair or not, every team’s starting QB tends to get more praise than he deserves for wins as well as a disproportionate blame for the losses. Separating the quarterback’s performance from everything else – the playcalling, pass protection, separation for receivers, and so on – is one of the most difficult things analysts can do.

Sam Darnold is a fascinating case in this regard. The newest Panthers QB1 spent the first three seasons of his NFL career with the Jets, where he posted a dismal 13-25 win/loss record, a troubling 45/39 touchdown to interception ratio and a highly unimpressive 78.6 passer rating.

Since the trade that brought Darnold to Carolina several days ago, many fans and analysts have focused on his lack of a supporting cast in New York to excuse his numbers. This is an entirely fair argument. The Jets were one of the most poorly coached and managed teams in the league during Darnold’s run as their starter. He had little help at wide receiver, bad offensive lines and one of the worst playcallers at this level.

It’s true Darnold didn’t have any help in New York and there are reasons to believe that he’ll be a step-up over Teddy Bridgewater for the Panthers. For one thing, Darnold is still developing. At 23 years old, he’s significantly younger than Bridgewater and only slightly older than some of the top quarterback prospects in this class.

Darnold is also a far superior athlete compared to Bridgewater. While he’s not considered a dual-threat QB, he can make plays with his legs. As a rusher, Darnold has totaled 417 yards and five touchdowns. Here is a popular clip making the rounds showcasing Darnold’s wheels.

Perhaps the most common highlight you’ll see on social media is this one against the 49ers, featuring a Patrick Mahomes-ish sidearm throw on the run.

There’s no question that Carolina is getting a more dynamic and athletic starter than Bridgewater. There are certainly plenty of other wow-type throws that Darnold has made since entering the NFL.

The problem is that every other starter in the league will occasionally make those plays, as well. Only a handful of quarterbacks can actually make those high-level throws consistently – and at this point Darnold is definitely not one of them.

A couple of times a game, Jared Goff might toss a 25-yard dart that raises eyebrows. Every once in a while, Jimmy Garoppolo drops a 30-yard dime that makes you think he could be something special. Then again, Goff and Garoppolo might throw a gruesome interception on the next snap, or panic under pressure, completely lose their composure in the pocket and walk themselves right into a sack.

Darnold has his moments as well, but if he’d had enough of them over the last three years the Jets wouldn’t have traded him to the Panthers in the first place and wouldn’t be making Zach Wilson jerseys right now.

The unfortunate fact is when you separate Darnold’s game from the handicap that is the Jets, there’s really not a ton to be excited about. All of the hype is based on potential and upside and what could be as opposed to what Darnold is capable of doing right now.

Time will tell whether Darnold can take the next step and enjoy a Ryan Tannehill-like rennaissance now that he’s free from Adam Gase.

Carolina fans should prepare themselves for the distinct possibility that he may only be the mildest upgrade imaginable over Bridgewater and that this trade did very little to improve their long-term prospects.

Related

Sam Darnold drew interest from 49ers, Washington before Panthers' deal