Commentary: Recent quality stretch is tangible proof that M’s advertised blueprint for success can work
Four weeks ago, I sat here talking about the opportunity the Mariners had to get our attention in the month of April – and I’m willing to say they got it.
And not necessarily because they’re in first place – although that helps.
Yes of course, this recent run by the M’s has been impressive. Even with today’s loss, the best record in the American League over the last 16 games. But I’d argue that it’s THE WAY they’ve won games that’s carried the most weight, because it’s exactly how this organization intended to win games.
In other words, Missouri might be the "Show Me" state, but the Mariners carried the same burden heading into this season – show me. Show US. And finally, it’s no longer lip service. We have actual proof of concept.
This team was built to win games with its magnificent pitching rotation, and with the ability to supplement their strong arms with enough offense to hopefully put them over the top. And for the most part, that’s exactly what we’ve seen over the last two weeks – in an historic fashion at that.
According to OPTA Stats, the Mariners streak of 16 games with a starting pitcher allowing two or fewer runs with four or more strikeouts is the longest by any team in baseball history. And according to M’s PR, before today’s game, this team was one of just three teams in Major League History – that’s 124 years – to have an ERA of 1.50 or better with an average of nine or more strikeouts with an average of fewer than nine baserunners per game over a 14-game stretch.
I don’t expect those numbers to be sustainable – none of us do. But even if the pitching performance dips a bit, I don’t think any of us expect the batting numbers to be as low as they’ve been either.
As a team, the M’s are batting 219. Their 179 batting average in the last six games has been somewhat overshadowed by their 4-2 record and two series wins. Is it concerning? Sure. But it’s also fair to say that regression to the mean points to these numbers eventually improving, in a similar way that we don’t expect the starting pitching to sustain the ridiculous numbers they’re putting up now.
I mean, there’s no way the players they acquired this offseason can continue like this, right? Mitch Garver is batting .143. Jorge Polanco is batting .163, Luis Urias .179, Luke Raley .196. These numbers can’t get much worse and you have to think they’ll eventually come around.
Either way, we’ve now seen that this is a team that should win games if they’re able to score four or more runs with quality pitching starts. That’s the blueprint – one the Mariners expected and promoted this offseason – one many fans rolled their eyes at during their putrid start – but all of a sudden are seeing can actually work if executed correctly.
I wasn’t kidding when I called this a "put up or shut up" season. And that’s why the last few weeks have been so critical. We’ve finally seen the prototype. And we’ve seen the tangible evidence.
Of course they’ve got a long way to go. In the same way we’ve heard the team say "It’s early" after a slow start, it’s STILL early now.
But what the Mariners have done since I sat here before the start of April has been exactly what they needed to do. Convince many fence riders that their intended formula for winning games with this roster actually works.
And honestly, that’s a pretty big first step.
