Colts vs. Jaguars: 5 things to watch in Week 18
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off their disappointing loss to the Las Vegas Raiders and will be looking to get things back on track against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
Their postseason fate is in their control because just like in Week 17, they just need to win and they will clinch a spot in the playoffs. There are other scenarios that they could get in if they were to lose but if we are being honest, if the Colts can’t beat this Jaguars team then they simply don’t deserve to be in the big dance.
They will have an opportunity to sweep Jacksonville in the regular-season series for the first time since 2014. That was the last time that Indianapolis won in Duval County. Frank Reich has to make sure that his team doesn’t waltz into this matchup with the mindset that they are going to show up and win with ease.
The Jaguars always play the Colts hard and that was apparent in their first matchup this season. Despite having a two-score lead, Indianapolis almost squandered that lead away and Jacksonville did have an opportunity to win that game in the final two minutes. Urban Meyer has been let go since then, Trevor Lawerence has continued his struggles as a rookie, and their defense has let offenses put up a lot of points against them.
Everything points to a get-right type of game for the Colts. They just have to get the job done when these two franchises step on the field on Sunday. Here are my top five things to watch for when they do:
How does Jonathan Taylor cap off his season?
Jonathan Taylor has put together an impressive year two in the NFL which has set him up to earn honors and awards once the season comes to a close. The hopes of him winning the MVP award were already an uphill battle because it typically goes to a quarterback and last week’s loss to the Raiders didn’t help.
He’s in a tight race with Cooper Kupp for Offensive Player of the Year honors and he will need as much ammunition that he can present in his case to the voters. A big performance on Sunday that helps lock his team into the postseason would certainly help. He’s over 2,000 scrimmage yards this season but if he were able to go over 2,000 rushing yards then that could help his argument for the OPOY award.
Taylor is sitting 266 yards away from making that happen but it might not be that out of reach for him to make it happen. In last year’s regular-season finale against the Jaguars, he rushed the ball 30 times for 253 yards. Jacksonville gives up 127.1 rushing YPG, which is the eighth-most allowed in the NFL.
A 266-rushing yard performance to hit the 2,000 rushing yard mark and a trip to the playoffs would be one big bow to put on Taylor’s second year in the pros.
Can the pass rush repeat their success?
The ability to get pressure and sacks on the quarterback at a consistent rate has been one of the issues that the Colts had to deal with this season. It got much better after the midway point of the year and it really got kicked up a notch when these two teams face back in November. Indianapolis was able to register 10 QB hits and three sacks in that game. That is the type of success that Matt Eberflus needs to get his defense to repeat so they can frustrate Trevor Lawrence once again on Sunday.
Getting home to the quarterback has been elusive for the most part for the Indianapolis defense as they are set to likely not have a player finish in double-digits in the sack department. DeForest Buckner is leading the team with seven so he would need to get his hands on the rookie quarterback three times to make that happen.
Kwity Paye has put together a strong second half of his rookie season and continues to impress as he gets better with every snap. It might not come on Sunday, but at some point, he will be needed to be dominant off the edge. An unstoppable performance against Jacksonville would certainly show that he is headed in the right direction as a player.
Whether it is Buckner, Paye, or any of the other players upfront, it is important that they are harassing Lawrence all afternoon so he can’t get comfortable in the pocket.
Does Carson Wentz forget last week?
It has been determined that the Wentz experiment wasn’t the disaster that most analysts thought was coming for the Colts. It also hasn’t been rainbows and butterflies for the franchise as well.
The roller coaster of a ride that it has been Wentz is still showing up as the season comes to an end. After creating some believers with his fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals, those turned right back into doubters after failing to deliver against Las Vegas in Week 17.
Frank Reich understands that at some point his passing attack is going to need to step up if they want to go on a deep playoff run. Wentz will be looking to fine-tune his timing with his receivers because Indianapolis is practicing together for the first time in a couple of weeks because of the recent surge in COVID cases. Not only will Wentz need to show that he can move past last week’s performance, but he will also have to prove that he learned his lessons from the previous matchup with Jacksonville.
It was a rough day for the Colts air attack, he went 22/34 for 180 yards. The hope should be that Jonathan Taylor runs amuck all over the Jaguars but Wentz will need to be efficient and take his shots when Reich dials up a pass play.
Ending as the takeaway king
There have been two big reasons why the Colts were able to even be in this position to clinch a playoff spot after starting the season in the hole. One was the play of Jonathan Taylor and the other was the defense’s ability to create turnovers.
Matt Eberflus has to be pleased that his unit is only seven away from the lofty goal of 40+ takeaways that they set back in the preseason. While that might not happen, they can at least end the season with the most in the NFL.
But, they will have to outdo the Dallas Cowboys, who they are currently tied with at 33 takeaways this season. The first player that can help make that happen is the takeaway king himself, Darius Leonard. He’s forced eight fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and has four interceptions this season. I don’t know how his name isn’t talked about more often when it comes to the Defensive Player of the Year.
If there is one thing that the defense could do to help extra motivation to create turnovers, it is who is going to lead this team in interceptions for the season? Leonard is currently tied with Kenny Moore for having the most (four) on the Colts.
Isaiah Rodgers is sitting right behind them with three. Not that this unit needs any extra motivation with a playoff spot on the line, but if they can end the year leading the league in takeaways then it will also likely mean they have earned to keep their season alive past Sunday.
Just win
Just win. Sounds so simple, doesn’t it? Well, as I have reiterated throughout this article, that is all the Colts need to do on Sunday to keep playing football in January. Frank Reich’s team has done well on the road this season. They are 5-2 and the last loss in an opponent’s stadium was the Monday night collapse to the Baltimore Ravens on October 11.
They have won their last four road matchups. They will be looking to ride that success into Jacksonville and get their first win down there since the 2014 season. Indianapolis can’t come out with the same energy that they had against the Raiders. This needs to be a mentally sharp team that is ready to come out and put it on the Jaguars. The offense needs to come out of the gates hot and score points on every first-half possession.
If the defense can suffocate the Jacksonville offense and not allow them to have any confidence then they could get this over with before it begins. It needs to be a pedal to the metal effort from all three phases of the game and they don’t let up until there is 0:00 left on the clock.
The goal should be to have a comfortable lead by the fourth quarter so some starters can get some rest for wildcard weekend. They will have to earn that right and there is no reason why they can set themselves up for some rest late in the game. So from the top to the bottom of the organization, everyone just needs to do their job and leave Duval County with that elusive victory so they can get that monkey off their back.
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