College football odds: What are the best bets in the Pac-12 this season?

It’s been a rough few weeks for the Pac-12. As the remaining power conferences continue to pick away at what’s left of the once-prestigious conference, I’m working on channeling my energy for this upcoming season.

There is one final run, and it should be as competitive and unpredictable as ever. You can bet this fall will be filled with all the unexplainable upsets and mind-blowing momentum swings that kept us up way too late at night. I will still be putting on a pot of coffee, hunting for +21 or live overs during Pac-12 After Dark. One lesson we all have learned this summer is that nobody knows what the future holds, which is ironic considering the volatility of each game was the best part of the conference.

[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for free today]

The first thing that stands this year is the high level of quarterback play. When looking at the betting odds to win the Heisman Trophy, the Pac-12 is represented three times among the top 10 players. USC’s Caleb Williams is the betting favorite (+500), Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. has the fourth-shortest odds (+1200) and just outside the top five is Oregon’s Bo Nix (+1600). That’s not even including last year’s Heisman hopeful DJ Uiagalelei or Utah’s Cameron Rising. All signs are pointing to the conference being on-brand with plenty of high-scoring, exciting games.

Below I discuss some of the most intriguing teams in the conference, along with the best way to approach them from a betting perspective. Whether that’s by betting their win total or taking a shot on them becoming the final champion of the Pac-12 as we know it.

The Favorite: USC +200

It almost seems unfair that Caleb Williams gets a second year in Lincoln Riley’s offense after accounting for 52 touchdowns and winning the Heisman. They brought in RB MarShawn Lloyd from South Carolina to anchor the run game. The wide receivers are loaded with Arizona transfer Dorian Singer joining Brenden Rice and Mario Williams on the outside. The offense was already one of the elite units in the nation, finishing last season third in scoring (41.4) and fourth in explosive plays. They will be able to outscore anyone in the conference (even you, Washington), but the million dollar question is whether the defense will improve. Because after finishing 106th in yards allowed (423.9) and 93rd in scoring defense (29.2), Alex Grinch needs to produce results. They brought in some big-time transfers, including Bear Alexander from Georgia. The concern is whether any improvement gets washed away by turnover regression.

The schedule sets up nice with Utah, Washington and UCLA at home; their biggest challenge is a trip to Oregon in November. I think they go over their win total at 10, but that scenario probably leads to a Pac-12 title and a playoff appearance. I can’t disagree with playing the +200, but you are going to get better odds for USC to make the playoffs. Let’s be honest, are they really keeping Caleb Williams out of the playoffs if the Trojans are Pac-12 champs? I bet no. USC to make playoffs +250

The back-to-back defending champs: Utah Utes +500

I keep betting against Utah and wonder why I do it to myself after every year. I feel like they caught some luck getting a compromised Caleb Williams in the Pac-12 title game, but Kyle Whittingham deserves all the credit in the world for winning consecutive conference championships. The biggest injustice of realignment is Utah not getting to play in the Big Ten. If there were ever a team that’s built for Big Ten football, it’s Utah.

This season comes down to Rising's health. The Utes will maul you in the trenches with the best offensive and defensive line in the conference. That helps if Rising runs into a setback with his knee during the season. I expect them to handle Florida pretty easily, but having to travel to USC, Washington, and Oregon State will kill their chances of a three-peat. The days of cashing juicy Utah tickets to win the Pac-12 are over, but I wouldn’t bet against their win total. Whittingham will find a way to nine wins. Over 8.5 +100.

Best value bet: Oregon +325

Don’t sleep on the Ducks. Oregon gets a little overshadowed. They aren’t as physical as Utah, nor are they as flashy as USC and Washington. Dan Lanning produced 10 wins his first year, and I’m a believer in the culture being built in Oregon. I love how the Ducks ripped off eight straight games after being embarrassed 49-3 in the opener against Georgia. Bo Nix showed tremendous growth in reducing the critical mistakes that plagued him at Auburn while putting 44 total touchdowns on the board. These aren't Mario Cristobal’s Ducks anymore, and Bo Nix isn’t at Auburn. The Oregon offense, which averaged close to 40 points a game, could be even better with a strong offensive line and all its top weapons returning.

The defense, particularly the pass rush, needs to improve. Lanning aggressively attacked the portal for players on all three levels of the defense. He landed edge rusher Jordan Burch from South Carolina, plus plenty of depth players to keep the rotations fresh. That is the side of the ball with the most questions, and your view of their potential is likely aligned to your confidence in Lanning.

Georgia isn’t on the schedule this year, but it’s still a tougher slate than some of their conference foes. They have a tricky Week 2 game in Lubbock against Texas Tech, but it’s these three conference games that will determine their season:

• 10/14 at Washington
• 10/28 at Utah
• 11/11 vs. USC

The real test is going to be facing Utah in one of the toughest environments in the country. However, the trade-off is hosting USC in a game with potentially massive implications. I think it’s possible they get two of the above three, which would allow them some cushion to safeguard against an in-season upset. Play the win total over at plus money, and don’t be afraid to back the Ducks as a small play to win the conference. At +325 odds, I think you’re getting more value than taking the Trojans at +200. Over 9.5 +110 and Pac-12 champions +325

Don’t get too excited: Oregon State +1000

It felt like the entire nation was rooting for Oregon State to take down the Trojans in Week 4 last season. They didn’t get it done, but the Beavers became a wagon for bettors over the course of the year. Oregon State finished 11-2 ATS and put up their first 10-win season under Jonathan Smith. Entering 2023, the Beavers are gaining momentum as trendy long-shot candidates to win the conference. While the 10-to-1 odds are tempting, I think it’s far too optimistic in a very competitive conference.

I love that DJ Uiagalelei gets a fresh start, but I am not 100% sold he leaves all his struggles in Clemson. They will still rely heavily on Damien Martinez to move the ball, and the defense doesn’t have the returning production it did a year ago. I don’t think they win at Oregon, and Utah and Washington are likely home losses. That leaves them walking a tightrope on the win total (8.5), having to avoid slipping to UCLA or a surprise team down the stretch. I’d probably lean to the under, but not enough to bet at -135. It’s best to pick your spots with Beavs during the season.

What about Prime Time? Colorado +10000

I couldn’t leave without talking about the greatest college football experiment to date. I am genuinely excited to see Travis Hunter playing on both sides of the ball, and Shadeur Sanders against FBS defenses, but I think we all know that we shouldn’t be betting on success. A great movie is still a great movie, even when we have strong feelings on exactly how it's going to end. I’m not running down the schedule because the Buffaloes aren’t better than many of the teams they will face. However, I do think Colorado’s talent lies on the front lines. On a game-by-game basis, there might be value on the Buffaloes early. Keeping an eye on the injuries will be critical, because that’s your bat signal to go the other way. Their lack of depth will be something worth betting against. Under 3.5 -125

Stats provided by cfbstats