College Basketball Best Bets, Feb. 6: Rutgers vs Maryland, Indiana vs OSU, Houston vs OK State
Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three favorite College Basketball plays for the Tuesday slate, including Houston vs Oklahoma State, plus two Big Ten matchups.
Rutgers at Maryland (-8): O/U 127.5
Rutgers and Maryland meet for one of the lowest totals on the board as both own two of the top-six ranked defenses in the country.
Maryland is 3-2 at home in conference play holding opponents to 51, 61, 57, 67, and 75 points (OT) for 62.2 points per game. The Terps defense ranks sixth overall in the nation and plays at the 331st-ranked tempo on the defensive end and 308th overall.
Rutgers plays at the 156th-ranked tempo, but on defense, they are 332nd in pace and third overall in efficiency, so we should expect a slow game overall. The Knights offense plays quicker (53rd), but the offense ranks 300th in adjusted efficiency and 350th in two-point (43.9%) and three-point percentage (28%).
The Knights scored 63 or fewer points in five of the last six games and I expect another tough outing here to start this game.
Coming off 69 points at Michigan for the first road win in Big Ten play, this is a good spot to fade the Rutgers at least early to avoid late-game fouling. I played the Knights First Half Team Total Under 27.5 at -115 odds and would go down to 26.5.
Pick: Rutgers 1H Team Total Under 27.5 (1u)
Indiana at Ohio State (-5.5): O/U 141.0
Ohio State is back at home looking to break a four-game losing streak and 1-7 stretch overall in the past eights, while Indiana is in a must-win spot at 1-4 in its last five games.
I will target the first half of this game roll with the Hoosiers' First-Half Team Total Over 31.5 (-122). Indiana has scored 34, 26, 27, 33, and 37 points in five road Big Ten games.
The two Unders came at Rutgers and Wisconsin, the No. 1 and 8 ranked defenses at home in conference play. Ohio State has the last-ranked defense in the Big Ten and the worst three-point defense (41.2%).
Ohio State allowed 36, 41, 41, and 43 first-half points over the past four games and permitted 36 or more in seven of the last eight contests. Indiana needs a win and beat Ohio State, 71-65, earlier in the season at home. The Hoosiers trailed 38-37 at the half.
I grabbed the Hoosiers 1H Team Total Over 31.5 at -122 odds and would go out to 32.5 or -130 odds for the 31.5.
Pick: Indiana 1H Team Total Over 31.5 (Risk 1.5u)
Oklahoma State at Houston (-20.5): O/U 128.0
Oklahoma State has the lowest first-half team total I have ever seen as they visit Houston to take on the Cougars following the loss to Kansas.
The Cowboys' first-half team total is set at 23.5 and 24.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel, which sets us up for an ugly game that is a must-play for me.
Houston has been amazing on defense in its past three home games. The Cougars allowed Texas Tech to score 29 first-half points, while UCF had 14 points, and Kansas State posted 21 points. That is as elite as it gets.
The Cowboys have a bottom-five offense in the Big 12 and are 0-4 in conference play. Oklahoma State has averaged 31.4% from three and 58.3% from the free-throw line in those four games.
However, Oklahoma State has gone Over 24.5 points in all four true road Big 12 games, but I am going against that trend. I played the Under 24.5 on Oklahoma State's first-half team total for -108 odds. I'd go down to 23.5.
Pick: Oklahoma State 1H Team Total Under 24.5 (1u)
Season Record: 25-22 (53.1%) +0.83u
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick will be in Las Vegas all week leading up to the Super Bowl. Catch their insights on everything Chiefs/49ers weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
