Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction for 2024 Super Bowl, plus how to bet the spread & over/under
Super Bowl 58 week is here as the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are getting closer to kickoff Sunday at 6:30 p.m. at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
In my lead up to the Super Bowl, I've already given my betting analysis on player props, who will win MVP, and more last week following the AFC and NFC championship games.
This will be a highly anticipated rematch as the Chiefs and 49ers squared off in Super Bowl 54 when Kansas City took home its first Lombardi Trophy in 50 years with a 31-20 victory in Miami.
SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS: See our expert picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers
With Super Bowl 58 inching closer, here's my betting breakdown on the spread, total, and who I'm wagering on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Super Sunday.
Chiefs vs. 49ers spread: Chiefs +2.5 (-115), 49ers -1.5 (-110)
With Super Bowl 58 odds now out over a week, the 49ers remain less than a field-goal favorite.
When it comes to recent trends, these two organizations have been going in complete opposite directions.
The Chiefs are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) in the playoffs and have covered in five straight games dating back to the regular season.
Meanwhile, San Francisco has yet to cover this postseason and has failed to cover the spread in five of its past seven contests.
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I've been adamant about fading the Chiefs and picking against them leading up to the Super Bowl.
However, now that the line is almost at three points, this value is too good to pass up on QB Patrick Mahomes, who has been absolutely dominant against the spread (10-1-1 ATS) when he's an underdog in his career.
This will likely be the last time Mahomes is an underdog in the Super Bowl.
Even though 71 percent of the public bets are on the Chiefs +2.5, I'm all in on taking the points with Kansas City here.
FanDuel Sportsbook is currently the only betting site in New Jersey that still has the Chiefs as a 2.5-point underdog with a price of -115 (Bet $115 to win $100).
Prediction: Chiefs +2.5 (-115)
Chiefs vs. 49ers total: Over/Under 47.5 points (-110)
The over/under is on par with last year's Super Bowl as it's a point lower from the Eagles-Chiefs 48.5 total.
It was clear from the start that Super Bowl 57 was going to hit the over after the two teams combined for 38 points in the first half.
While I don't expect that to be the case this Sunday, I'm still taking the over in this one.
This season, the Chiefs defense has completely flipped the script from last year as it has been one of the best units in the NFL. This has continued in these playoffs against some of the best QBs in the league in Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa, Bills' Josh Allen and Ravens' Lamar Jackson.
On the other hand, the 49ers defense has proven it can be beatable at times, especially like the Lions did in the NFC title game where they consistently moved the ball up and down the field for almost the entire first half.
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While I believe Mahomes & Co. will be able to move the ball with ease, I wouldn't be shocked if QB Brock Purdy and the 49ers are able to as well. It'll be tough for Kansas City to guard all the weapons that San Francisco has as its disposal.
It's also important to note that the Chiefs lost one of their best interior lineman, Charles Omenihu, who was third on the team with seven sacks this season, to a torn ACL in the AFC Championship game.
All these factors lead me to believe that while we likely won't see the 73-point barrage from a year ago, both teams will still be able to score often in this one.
A majority of sportsbooks in New Jersey have a price of -110 (Bet $110 to win $100) for the over 47.5 points for Super Bowl 58.
Prediction: Over 47.5 points (-110)
Chiefs vs. 49ers moneyline: 49ers (-125), Chiefs (+110)
For the second consecutive season, the Chiefs find themselves as underdogs in the Super Bowl.
Mahomes has flourished when his team is not favored, winning nine of those 12 times.
We saw in Super Bowl 57 how the Chiefs were still able to move the ball against a great defense in the Eagles.
Now, Kansas City gets to face San Francisco's defense that has not been as dominant as it was in years past.
As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers should have success even against a great Chiefs defense.
However, when it's all said and done, I'm not gonna be on the other side of betting against Mahomes. He's proven me and several doubters who picked against him wrong twice already this postseason.
I believe we see yet another high-scoring Super Bowl in which the Chiefs come out on top, cementing their dynasty with their third Lombardi Trophy in five seasons and becoming the first team to repeat as champions since the New England Patriots did it in Super Bowls 38 and 39.
A handful of sportsbooks have the best price for the Chiefs on the moneyline at +110 (Bet $100 to net $110) to win Super Bowl 58.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, 49ers 28
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Chiefs vs. 49ers picks for 2024 Super Bowl, how to bet spread
