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Super Bowl 2024 MVP odds: The favorites, and our best bet for the Chiefs and 49ers

albert bainbridge iv, northjersey.com
·5 min read

Throughout the 57-year history of the Super Bowl, the game's Most Valuable Player Award has primarily gone to the winning team's quarterback − 56 percent of the winners (32 out of 57) have been QBs, including 16 since the turn of the century.

After Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp took home the trophy in Super Bowl 56, it went right back to a signal caller as Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes took home his second Super MVP trophy last February.

With Super Bowl 58 inching closer, here are the odds-on-favorites to win this year's MVP, plus my best bet and a long-shot pick from both the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers to earn the award on Super Bowl Sunday.

More: What's the Chiefs vs. 49ers spread for Super Bowl 2024? Here's the early line & our advice

Super Bowl 2024 MVP odds: Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes, 49ers' Brock Purdy odds-on-favorites

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes picks up the Super Bowl MVP trophy alongside NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during a news conference for the winning coach and MVP of Super Bowl 57.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes picks up the Super Bowl MVP trophy alongside NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during a news conference for the winning coach and MVP of Super Bowl 57.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: +140 (Bet $100 to win $140)

49ers QB Brock Purdy: +225 (Bet $100 to net $225)

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey: +450 (Bet $100 to win $450)

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: +2100 (Bet $100 to net $2,100)

Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco: +3500 (Bet $100 to win $3,500)

49ers RB Deebo Samuel: +3500 (Bet $100 to net $3,500)

Chiefs' MVP pick for 2024 Super Bowl: QB Patrick Mahomes (+140)

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes holds the Vince Lombardi Trophy after the NFL Super Bowl 57 football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023, in Glendale, Ariz. The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes holds the Vince Lombardi Trophy after the NFL Super Bowl 57 football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023, in Glendale, Ariz. The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

Unsurprisingly, Mahomes enters the Super Bowl 54 rematch as the game's reigning MVP and odds-on-favorite for the award on all sports betting sites in New Jersey.

Following a regular season in which he threw a career-high 14 interceptions and posted his lowest passing yards (4,183) and touchdowns (27) since 2019, the 28-year-old has gotten back to his MVP form in the playoffs. Mahomes has thrown for 718 yards, completed 68 percent of his passes and hasn't turned the ball over through three postseason games.

The two-time Super Bowl champion is the favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP award for the fourth time in five years, and that's the way I'd go if you're betting on the Chiefs to win for this prop. It's too good a value to pass up Mahomes at plus money when he's already achieved this goal both times the organization won the Super Bowl since 2019.

If the Chiefs' signal caller takes home another Super Bowl MVP, he'll join Tom Brady and Joe Montana as the only players to win the award three or more times.

Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (M) celebrates with the Lamar Hunt Trophy while speaking with CBS broadcaster Jim Nance during the trophy presentation after the Chiefs' game against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

When looking at outside options besides Mahomes, I'd wager on one of his go-to receiving weapons in either Kelce (+2100) or rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice (+7000) on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kelce has scored a touchdown or went for 100+ receiving yards in all three Super Bowl appearances and has posted 23 catches, for 263 yards and three touchdowns during this playoff run. You're also getting a huge discount on the 34-year-old as he was +1300 to win MVP in Super Bowl LVII.

The real long shot to bet on for the Chiefs is Rice. The 2023 second-round selection has become Mahomes' secondary target behind Kelce, seeing a significant snap percentage increase since Week 12.

Rice has at least seven catches in six of his last nine games, including going for a career-high 130 receiving yards in Kansas City's 26-7 Wild Card playoff victory over the Dolphins.

If the 49ers decide to focus their attention and take away Kelce, Rice could put up similar, if not better numbers against a beatable San Francisco secondary than Kupp did during his MVP performance in Super Bowl 56.

NFL: Super Bowl 58: How to watch and stream, who's performing halftime show for Chiefs vs 49ers

49ers' MVP pick for 2024 Super Bowl: RB Christian McCaffrey (+475)

49ers running back Christian McCaffrey runs the ball in for a touchdown in the third quarter of the Lions' 34-31 loss in the NFC championship game in Santa Clara, California, on Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024.
49ers running back Christian McCaffrey runs the ball in for a touchdown in the third quarter of the Lions' 34-31 loss in the NFC championship game in Santa Clara, California, on Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024.

While Purdy is the top betting option for the 49ers, I'm locked in on McCaffrey at +475 on BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.

Despite a running back not winning this award since Broncos RB Terrell Davis did it over 25 years, you can argue CMC is one of the best running backs over the last handful of seasons, if not longer.

McCaffrey dominated in his first full regular season with San Francisco, finishing with 2,023 all-purpose yards and 21 total touchdowns.

The former No. 8 overall pick hasn't slowed down in the postseason, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, racking up 260 total yards and scoring two touchdowns in back-to-back games.

There's no denying CMC is a lock for at least 20+ touches in Super Bowl 58. If the 49ers win, he finds the endzone at least once and totals 150 yards or more. I believe he'll break the streak and end the drought for a Super Bowl MVP at the running back position.

Just like the Chiefs, there are tons of great value on the 49ers' skill players to win Super Bowl 58 MVP.

There's dual-threat wide receiver Deebo Samuel on some sportsbooks at a price of 35/1 (+3500) and do-it-all tight end George Kittle at 80/1 (+8000).

However, my long shot choice for San Francisco would be wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk.

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, top right, catches a touchdown pass against Detroit Lions safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (2) and cornerback Cameron Sutton (1) during the second half of the NFC Championship NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, top right, catches a touchdown pass against Detroit Lions safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (2) and cornerback Cameron Sutton (1) during the second half of the NFC Championship NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

The 2020 first-round pick has been somewhat quiet so far in the playoffs (six catches, 100 receiving yards and a touchdown) but was red-hot to finish the regular season.

Aiyuk recorded a touchdown or had 100+ receiving yards in eight of his final 10 matchups heading into the postseason.

Kansas City is going to have to neutralize one of these options, and I believe San Francisco's leading receiver could have a big performance on Super Sunday.

Betting markets are all over the place on the Aiyuk's odds to win Super Bowl MVP. As of Tuesday afternoon, the best option is at DraftKings Sportsbook where he's at 60/1 (+6000) odds.

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Super Bowl 2024 MVP odds, picks. Go with Patrick Mahomes