Chargers’ reasons for optimism vs. Texans in Week 4
Despite the week the Chargers have had, there are still reasons to believe this is a good football team. Justin Herbert is Justin Herbert. Derwin James and the secondary have been incredible. Khalil Mack is playing better than he has in years.
Here are four reasons to be optimistic that the remaining stars can carry them to victory against the Texans on Sunday.
Run defense woes
The Texans just let Chicago tear them up for 281 rushing yards on seven a carry, and that came after David Montgomery left the game early. Khalil Herbert had the best game of his career, and while the Bears ballcarrier is a talented player, the performance has just as much to do with Houston’s limp run defense as it does Herbert’s talent. If there was any week for the Chargers to figure out their running game, this is it. Austin Ekeler’s usage has been bizarre this season, as has the lack of touches for Joshua Kelley, despite the flashes he’s shown. If Los Angeles lets both of them grind Houston into a paste, there’s no reason they can’t get things back on track.
Pass game desynchronization
To put it politely, Davis Mills and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton have not been on the same page to start the season. Mills has hardly targeted any of his wide receivers this season, mostly utilizing Rex Burkhead and the tight ends in the passing game. That’s a potential recipe for success against the Chargers since it keeps you away from Asante Samuel Jr. and JC Jackson on the outside, provided the latter plays. However, Mills has also shown a propensity to turn the ball over in year two in the NFL, and his lack of progression as a player is certainly something to keep an eye on. Los Angeles has been a solid pass defense through three games, especially by disguising coverages pre- and post-snap. Against a young QB like Mills, that could be enough.
Inability to finish games
Houston’s total point differential is -10, a reflection of two one-score losses and a tie with Indianapolis. They’ve led or been tied in the fourth quarter and have found a way to lose in all three of their games. Against the Colts, they blew a fourth-quarter lead and couldn’t convert in overtime. They couldn’t score a touchdown against Denver, losing 16-9 despite a stellar performance from their defense and another fourth-quarter lead. Davis Mills threw a backbreaking interception to Roquan Smith on a tipped ball that set up the Bears to kick a game-winning field goal deep in the fourth quarter on Sunday. That’s how Houston has fallen to 0-2-1. Even if the Texans can take a lead into the final period, they’ve proven the game is far from over until the final whistle.
Light schedule
Houston has played the seventh-easiest schedule so far this season, per DVOA. Denver is the only top ten team by DVOA they’ve played, and we just talked about how the Texans didn’t score a touchdown in that game. Chicago is 23rd in DVOA; Indianapolis is 30th. Yet, Houston is winless through three games, standing at 25th in DVOA themselves. The fact that they haven’t converted against two bad teams is a bit of an indictment on their talent: Houston has young players with upside on both sides of the field, but they’re a ways off from fielding a consistently competitive team. On paper, even with the injuries, LA should be a much better team.
