Celtics fans will enjoy these historical trends entering Game 5 vs. Heat
Celtics fans will enjoy these historical trends entering Game 5 vs. Heat originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Celtics need to win one more game to eliminate the Miami Heat from the 2024 NBA playoffs and advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Eliminating the Heat is always tough, however, and the Celtics know that better than anyone. The Heat are a well-coached team that plays hard and never quits. But history is firmly on the Celtics' side as they take a 3-1 series lead into Wednesday night's Game 5 at TD Garden.
NBA teams that lead a best-of-7 series 3-1 go on to win the series 95.4 percent of the time (269-13 record), per NBC Sports Boston's Celtics statistician Dick Lipe. The Celtics have never lost a series when leading 3-1 (28-0 record), and they've only required a Game 7 twice.
Here's a look at the outcome of the Celtics' 28 series in which they held a 3-1 lead.
Won in 5: 17 times
Won in 6: Nine
Won in 7: Twice
Lost series: Zero
The Heat are 1-6 all-time in best-of-7 series during which they trail 3-1. Miami's only win came in the 1997 Eastern Conference semifinals vs. the New York Knicks -- a series that included multiple suspensions stemming from a Game 5 fight.
The Heat have lost in Game 5 in five of the seven series in which they trailed 3-1.
The last team to recover from a 3-1 series deficit was the Denver Nuggets, who did it twice in the COVID-19 bubble playoffs in 2020 (first round vs. Jazz and second round vs. Clippers).
If there's one potential concern about the Celtics, it's their lack of success on home court in recent playoff runs. The C's are 1-1 at home in this series and have a 12-13 record at home in the playoffs since 2022. The Heat are 6-3 at the Garden in the playoffs since the beginning of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals.
But without Jimmy Butler or Terry Rozier -- guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been ruled out for Game 5 as well -- the Heat just don't have enough offensive firepower to beat the Celtics three consecutive times. They would need to shoot historically well from 3-point range like they did in Game 2 a few more times.
Tip-off for Game 5 is set for Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Boston, with Mike Gorman and Brian Scalabrine on the call. Coverage begins at 6:30 p.m. with Celtics Pregame Live.
