How will C-USA football finish? It's all a guess with new-look league; here's one guess
Conference USA is supposed to be one of the hardest conferences to pick this season. A league known for its transience often is.
The nine-team conference features four newcomers from two different leagues (in the case of New Mexico State and Liberty no football leagues at all), with two playing their first games in the FBS.
C-USA is set to expand again next season, so this year's schedule will be a one-off but will give the schools a chance to meet each other, as the league has a complete round robin.
How that will all shake out is one of the more intriguing storylines in Group of Five football this season and at this point predictions aren't much more than guesses. Here is one guess of a predicted order of finish.
1. Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers are the best returning team in the conference, coming off a 9-4 season that has pushed their record the last two years to 18-10, and there is every reason to think that's going to become a new normal.
They put together last season's mark behind statistically the nation's best passing offense and return the engines of that in quarterback Austin Reed, a consensus preseason pick as the league player of the year, and his top target in Malachi Corley. Reed's in that spot because he threw for 4,746 yards last season, 1,300 of that to Corley.
The defense doesn't look quite as stacked as it returns four starters, but one of those is C-USA preseason defensive player of the year, linebacker JaQues Evans. He had one of WKU's NCAA-leading six defensive touchdowns last season. Cornerback Upton Stout had another touchdown and four interceptions, so what the Hilltopper offense doesn't return in numbers it returns in playmakers.
This is a program that should step into the void left by the nine departing teams to become the new perennial favorite.
2. Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee had an interesting season on defense last year that probably added up to more than its numbers suggest. The Blue Raiders ranked 130th out of 131 teams in passing yards allowed, but that doesn't look nearly as bad considering their 20 interceptions were second in the country.
Combine that with a stout run defense that led the conference and the defense was a big part of their 8-5 record. Now consider that MTSU returns nine of its 11 defensive starters and that group could be something special.
The issue will be on offense, a traditionally good unit that has to replace a quarterback, its top three receivers and needs to improve on a run game that averaged 3.1 yards a carry last year. There is a promising quarterback commodity in Nicholas Vattiato, who was MVP of the 2021 Bahamas Bowl when he was a part-time starter as a freshman and he was excellent in one spot start in his redshirt season of 2022.
Will he have anyone to throw to? The Blue Raiders have a lot of questions to answer at receiver before they open the season at Alabama and then at Missouri.
3. Liberty
Here is the hardest team on this list to predict. Liberty has consistently been the best program of the nine current C-USA members over the last half-decade, but enters C-USA in some flux. Coach Hugh Freeze left for Auburn in the offseason, giving way to former national coach of the year Jamey Chadwell from Costal Carolina.
Considering the team has eight returning starters and the Flames' spot in preseason conference picks will come down between deciding whether strength on paper or traditional excellence means more.
Top on the to-do list for Liberty is quarterback, where a four-way battle was raging. Senior Johnathan Bennett seems likely to be the first man up but the Flames could be casting about for a while.
Defensively they have to replace their top six tacklers so what exactly they will be putting on the field early is still a mystery. The Flames don't play UTEP until Thanksgiving. What they bring to El Paso might not look much like what they open the season with against Bowling Green.
4. UTEP
UTEP should be significantly improved from last year's 5-7 finish, when they lost a string of close games with a cast that's mostly back.
The offense returns seven starters, which doesn't count tailback Deion Hankins, technically a backup last year who is becoming the face of the program. In fact three of the four "new" starters are established veterans. The list of returning starters does include fourth-year starting quarterback Gavin Hardison, 1,000-yard receiver Tyrin Smith and four-fifths of the offensive line.
The veteran defense has four legitimate stars in linebacker Tyrice Knight, end Praise Amaewhule, tackle Keenan Stewart and safety Kobe Hylton. The Miners have to get better in pass defense but have made big strides on that side of the ball in the last two years.
5. Louisiana Tech
Here is another reason C-USA is hard to predict. La. Tech went 3-9 last year, so it raided the transfer portal and landed 25 players, transfers ranging from Lenoir-Rhyne and McNeese State to those from Alabama and LSU.
The most recognizable name among the bunch and likely the biggest key to success is senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier from Boise State, who entered the portal after getting devoured whole in the Sun Bowl by UTEP in Week 4. He was a 3,000-yard passer in 2021 so he's proven himself, though he has to do it again.
Louisiana Tech won't be beaten in the name department, as they return preseason C-USA special teams player of the year Smoke Harris, also an elite receiver and NFL prospect, and add tailback Craig "Sqwirl" Williams, a 500-yard rusher from Baylor last year.
There is almost no result from Louisiana Tech this season that would surprise. That will all depend on how good these transfers are and how quickly they come together.
6. New Mexico State
The Aggies were supposed to be one of the worst teams in America last year and were right out of the gate, starting 0-4 with a dismal offense. Then they settled on Diego Pavia at quarterback and launched, finishing 7-6 with a bowl win while lighting up scoreboards.
Pavia is back, and while NMSU put on the trappings of a quarterback battle, Pavia won it and will try to reprise his 2022 magic. He also has talent around him as the Aggies return top rushers Star Thomas and Jamoni Jones and nine of their top 10 pass catches.
A defense that took a step forward last year is the question mark, as it returns four starters.
7. Jacksonville State
How does a 9-2 season in the FCS translate into C-USA? That's a question that will be answered in the coming months. What is certain is that Jacksonville State and second-year coach Rich Rodriguez received a big boost from the NCAA, which approved a sixth year for dual-threat quarterback Zion Webb, the player who led the team to the A-SUN championship last year.
He returns his top tailback (Anwar Lewis) and top target (Sterling Galban) so the Gamecocks offense could be good.
The defense has to replace five of its top seven tacklers but should be good on the line with tackle Chris Hardie and end Jaylen Swain. How quickly they can adjust to its first year in the FBS will be the key to everything.
8. Sam Houston State
The Bearkats have been a traditional FCS power for more than a decade and won the spring national championship in 2020 but look to be a bit down as they step up a level. They were 5-4 last year and some of that was by design, as they redshirted a number of players in anticipation of the move to the FBS.
That includes players such as 2021 all-WAC performer Ife Adeyi at receiver and the upshot is that the offense returns one starter from 2022. Quarterback could be a battle between North Texas transfer Grant Gunnell and last year's part-time starter Keegan Shoemaker.
Linebacker Noah Smith, the WAC defensive player of the year last year, is a star and the team is adding back defensive end Jevon Leon, another of those former all-conference players who redshirted last year.
9. Florida International
The Panthers' 4-8 record last year was actually quite a step forward for a program that had one win in the previous two years. Alas, it proved good enough for its best players to hit the transfer portal and FIU should be back in a familiar rebuilding mode.
While their top names left, by the numbers FIU does have more than half its starters back as it looks for continuity in the second year under Mike MacIntyre. That list of returners includes quarterback Grayson James.
Florida International doesn't have much history to lean on, but it can consider last year a step forward.
Bret Bloomquist can be reached at 915-546-6359; bbloomquist@elpasotimes.com; @Bretbloomquist on Twitter.
This article originally appeared on El Paso Times: C-USA football: Predicted finish for 9-team conference
