Advertisement

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction and keys to Thursday Night Football game

sal maiorana, rochester democrat and chronicle
·8 min read

ORCHARD PARK - Wide receiver Stefon Diggs said the other day that what the Buffalo Bills need to do in order to break their recent malaise is to get back to “us being us.”

“You’ve seen it, I’ve experienced it,” Diggs said. “We’ve been out there, flying around making plays, Josh has been flying around making plays, a lot of touchdowns, scoring a lot of points.”

He’s right, we have seen it because ever since Diggs joined the team in 2020, the Bills’ offense has been one of the most dynamic in the NFL and as a result Buffalo has won the AFC East division title all three years.

Sign up for the Bills Blast newsletter Delivered straight to your inbox, additional Bills analysis, insight, stats, quotes and team history from Sal Maiorana

But over the past three weeks, we haven’t seen much of anything and I’m not sure what getting back to “us being us” even means because what is “us?” The Bills have been a bit of a dysfunctional mess which has extended to all three phases including special teams, and when that happens, you lose, as they did to the Jaguars and Patriots and very nearly did to the Giants.

The offense has gotten off to painfully slow starts which has in turn heaped more pressure on a defense that is seriously depleted by injuries and relying on some players who are bordering on being past their prime, and others who are raw and inexperienced. Throw in a few special teams screw-ups including a reliable kicker in Tyler Bass who has gone askew lately, and the Bills find themselves with a 4-3 record and barely holding on to the seventh and final spot in the AFC playoff bracket as we reach the midway point of the season.

Thursday night the Bills host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and as much as any game at the end of October can be a must win, this is it because with a second-half schedule that can only be described as daunting, the Bills have to bank this game in the ‘W’ column.

Here’s my preview of the game followed by my prediction:

Buffalo Bills on offense

Stefon Diggs said he, Josh Allen and the Bills offense just needs to get back to doing what they know they are capable of.
Stefon Diggs said he, Josh Allen and the Bills offense just needs to get back to doing what they know they are capable of.

Allen was talking during this short week about how he needs to calm his nerves and tone down his energy level because when he does that - when he’s not Sugar High Josh - he believes he plays his best ball. “Just trying to stay in this state called ‘low positive,’ where your energy is not super high, and you’re allowing your mind to think and be free and just stay on top of everything,” Allen explained.

Hey, whatever works.

But one thing I would say is the Bills need to get Allen back on track after he played pretty poorly in the loss to New England. And one way to do it would be to pick up the tempo of the offense because in that game, and so many other games during his career, Allen seems to operate his best when the Bills are moving quickly.

There’s been so much talk about the Bills failing to get into a rhythm on offense but playing up-tempo might be the way to do it.

“Yeah, you talk about areas of strength, I think that's some of what he does best,” coach Sean McDermott said.

Well, he’s the head coach and it might be wise to tell offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to tap into that. This is a strong Tampa Bay defense that has yielded the sixth-fewest points per game at 17.8 (just nine TDs allowed) and is No. 1 in the NFL with a TD percentage rate of 22.2% in the red zone including just two TDs in the last 14 penetrations dating to Week 3.

However, the Bucs have also been the worst team in the league in stopping third-down conversions, so the Bills should have an opportunity to get moving quickly, limit their substitution patterns and get good matchups that would allow Allen to sustain drives. To do this, players other than Diggs need to start doing something, starting with WR Gabe Davis who has five games this year where he’s caught three or fewer passes.

With Dawson Knox out, it would seem the Bills will scrap their traditional 12 personnel package. What I think we’ll see is Dalton Kincaid in the regular tight end position attached to the line in some situations, but when the Bills want to get him into the slot, offensive lineman David Edwards will be used as a quasi tight end/blocker, similar to what he’s done on almost all 47 snaps he has played this season.

Buffalo Bills on defense

Mike Evans caught this touchdown pass when the Bucs beat the Bills in Tampa Bay in 2021.
Mike Evans caught this touchdown pass when the Bucs beat the Bills in Tampa Bay in 2021.

For the third week in a row, the Bills are playing a team that comes into the game with a pretty terrible offense. The Bucs are 26th in points per game (17.2), 23rd in yards (297.7), 29th in rushing (77.8), and tied for 28th in red zone TD percentage (37.5%).

Baker Mayfield has come in and played fairly well in completing 65.2% of his passes, but he has led the Bucs to only nine touchdowns in six games. And what’s strange about this is he’s playing behind a very efficient offensive line that has allowed just eight sacks (with only four attributed to the blockers, per Pro Football Focus). And he also has a superb 1-2 tandem on the outside with WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin who have combined for 63 catches for 866 yards and four TDs.

But one thing you will notice is that, like the Bills offense, the key contributors are limited. Mayfield doesn’t really have a third option in the passing game outside of TE Cade Otton, and the running game has been stymied as RB Raachad White is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry.

That’s good news for a Bills defense that, if it doesn’t have DT Ed Oliver again, is extremely vulnerable up the middle. DTs Jordan Phillips, Tim Settle have been terribly ineffective against the run. If that weak play continues in this game with Tampa Bay’s strong offensive line led by LT Tristan Wirfs and RT Luke Goedeke, the Bucs might be able to sustain some drives of their own, eat some clock and keep Allen off the field.

One key area to watch will be those outside matchups as CBs Dane Jackson and Christian Benford will be heavily tested by Evans and Godwin. The Bills are going to need to be sharp in their coverages and it will be vital that safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer play well in terms of being sharp on when to double team, and then to hold up in contested catch situations and perhaps create a turnover or two.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 24, Buccaneers 14

Given the way the Bills are playing right now as a true mediocrity, it almost feels like a reach to predict even a 10-point victory. But I have to believe that beneath all their talk about how they aren’t panicking and everything will be just fine, they have to know that this is a game they simply can’t afford to lose.

Tampa Bay certainly has some fine players, especially on a defense that should give the Bills some trouble. But its offense has not been productive all season and I can’t see a way for Mayfield to produce enough to outscore Allen, especially in Orchard Park. Then again, didn’t I say that last week regarding Mac Jones, and the week before against Tyrod Taylor?

Bills vs. Buccaneers: News and notes

▶ The Bucs have played only two road games so far and they’ve won both, though both indoors at Minnesota and New Orleans.

▶ This will be the 13th time these two teams have met yet this is only the third game being played in Buffalo. The Bills won the previous two in 2009 and 2017.

▶ The Bills have won their last five Thursday night games, all with Allen at QB, and his passer rating in those games is a combined 107.7 with 15 total TDs. The Bills’ average margin of victory has been 14.8 points.

▶ Last year, the Bills became the first team in NFL history win three Thursday games in one season.

▶ Despite some struggles last week, the Bills are still scoring a TD on 71.4% of their red zone trips which is second-best in the league.

▶ LB Terrel Bernard has been excellent in coverage as per PFF, he's allowing a passer rating of just 57.6 into his area of responsibility. He also has three fumble recoveries and no Bills' defender has had four in a season since Bruce Smith in his rookie year of 1985.

Buffalo Bills schedule 2023

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Buccaneers prediction, keys to Thursday Night Football game