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Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles prediction and keys to heavyweight showdown

Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
·9 min read

ORCHARD PARK - No one ever said the 2023 season was going to be easy for the Buffalo Bills, but man oh man, their pursuit of a fifth straight NFL postseason appearance sure could have been much less difficult than it’s now going to be.

Of course, they have no one to blame but themselves for the precarious predicament they’re in because their three somewhat unbelievable yet well-deserved losses to the Jets, Patriots and Broncos have turned what realistically should be a shiny 9-2 record into a dull 6-5 mark.

What has been interesting is that the Bills have spread the seismic meltdowns around evenly as all three phases are directly responsible for one inexcusable defeat each. In Week 1, never mind the walk-off punt return TD in overtime, that game would never have been there if not for Josh Allen’s four turnovers and a terrible night for the offense that couldn’t outscore Zach Wilson.

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In Week 7, it was the defense crumbling as it allowed Mac Jones - yes, Mac Jones for crying out loud - to put up 29 points, double the Patriots’ season-long scoring average, capped by a last-second game-winning TD drive.

And then in Week 10, defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory when the special teams unit couldn’t count to 11 and had 12 men on the field which gave Denver a second chance for a winning walk-off field goal.

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) catches a pass while defended by Kansas City Chiefs safety Mike Edwards.
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) catches a pass while defended by Kansas City Chiefs safety Mike Edwards.

You just shake your head. At 9-2, the Bills would be leading the AFC East and at the top of the conference in the race for the top seed as they head into this brutal homestretch of their schedule that begins Sunday at Philadelphia against the NFC’s top team, the 9-1 Eagles.

Instead, they probably need at least four more victories in the last six weeks against teams with a combined record of 36-24, with four of those on the road.

“We needed it to get back on the train to start the train up,” offensive tackle Dion Dawkins said of blowing out the Jets last week. “We were off of the train and now we're on the train and the train is moving. It just gives us the positive mindset of we can do it at any point that we choose to.”

If only they could have done it in the three mind-numbing games that may ultimately sabotage their season.

Here’s my preview of the Bills vs Eagles game, followed by my preview:

Buffalo Bills on offense

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) races to the outside against New York Jets cornerback D.J. Reed (4).
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) races to the outside against New York Jets cornerback D.J. Reed (4).

The Eagles held Patrick Mahomes to season-lows for completion percentage (56%) and passing yards (177) on Monday. However, the dropped passes can't be overlooked, including that eye-popper by Marquez Valdes-Scantling which may have decided the game. Still, the Eagles defense blanked the Chiefs in the second half, at Arrowhead, and that’s no small feat.

It has been a curious year for Philly’s defense because after being the league’s best against the pass in 2022, it is now among the worst as it ranks 28th in yards allowed (248.1) and 25th in passer rating against (96.4). Part of that is due to injuries and constant shuffling in the secondary, but the bad news for the Bills is that the Eagles finally had their No. 1 fivesome on the field at the same time in Kansas City - CBs James Bradberry and Darius Slay, NCB Bradley Roby, and safeties Kevin Byard and Reed Blankenship - and it clearly made a big difference.

One thing that might work in Buffalo’s favor is that the Eagles have only one game video of the offense to study under the leadership of Joe Brady. He made some key alterations against the Jets, using motion on more than 60% of Allen’s dropbacks, and he also schemed up passes for RBs James Cook and Ty Johnson and each scored a TD. And now that he’s had time to breathe and dive a little deeper, I would expect Brady to continue building off that game plan and expanding it.

Despite the pass defense struggles, the Eagles have a great pass rush led by Haason Reddick (9.5 sacks), Josh Sweat (6.5) and Jalen Carter (4.0), a threesome that has also combined for 129 QB pressures. The Bills’ offensive line has a massive task on its hands with that, as well as blocking in the run.

Last week the Bills ran 18 times in the first half, a season high which helped them stay balanced, plus allowed them to dominate time of possession and dictate the game flow. But the Eagles are No. 1 in the NFL against the run (76.5 yards per game) and the inside DT trio of Carter, Fletcher Cox and Jordan Davis is as good as it gets.

Buffalo Bills on defense

Jalen Hurts ran for two touchdowns in the Eagles' victory over the Chiefs Monday night.
Jalen Hurts ran for two touchdowns in the Eagles' victory over the Chiefs Monday night.

What the Bills have been able to do on defense despite all their injuries has been impressive, but they’re about to step into a different weight class Sunday. The Bills have faced some of the worst offenses in the NFL in recent weeks - the Giants, Patriots (and that went horribly wrong), the Buccaneers, the Broncos, and the Jets.

The Eagles are light years better than those teams with dual threat QB Jalen Hurts, run-pass RB weapon D’Andre Swift, dynamic WRs A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, all able to do what they do best because of an offensive line that Pro Football Focus grades as the fourth-most efficient unit in the NFL. It’s a lot for Sean McDermott and his banged up defense to deal with.

However, the Bills should draw some confidence from how the Chiefs held the Eagles in check, limiting them to a season-low 238 yards of total offense despite their 21-17 loss Monday. Hurts was sacked five times, he threw an interception and finished with just 150 yards passing, though 41 came on a dime to Smith in the fourth quarter that set up the Eagles winning TD.

The Chiefs coverage unit took Brown out of the game as he had only one catch, but Smith burned them for 99 yards on six catches. The Bills will need CBs Rasul Douglas - coming off a three-takeaway game - and Christian Benford to be great against those two.

The Bills won’t have to deal with injured TE Dallas Goedert, but the Eagles will utilize Swift as a third passing option as he has the fourth-most targets (38) on the team and has 33 catches for 197 yards. In that case, LBs Terrel Bernard and Tyrel Doson must be spot on because 62% of Hurts’ attempts this season have been thrown 10 yards or less downfield and 10% of those have been screen passes. That’s a big part of their offense, and one player who is very good at defending those types of throws, NCB Taron Johnson, may not play as he’s in concussion protocol.

Sal’s prediction: Eagles 27, Bills 19

Long before the Bills began sputtering this season, this was never a game that I felt they were going to win. And given the arcs of the two teams through 11 weeks, nothing has caused me to alter my opinion. Yes, the Bills were impressive in blowing out the Jets last week, and that can certainly be the kind of victory that can get a season turned around.

If they were playing almost any other team Sunday, I’d say there was a good chance that they could keep that momentum intact and possibly get on a roll, but the Eagles are a problematic matchup for Buffalo and I don’t see the Bills winning the game, especially on the road.

Bills vs. Eagles: News and notes

Ed Oliver has played a key role in the Bills' pass rush which now has 39 sacks on the season.
Ed Oliver has played a key role in the Bills' pass rush which now has 39 sacks on the season.

▶ Since their 41-15 loss to Frank Reich’s Colts on Nov. 21, 2021, the Bills have lost only 10 regular-season games and none have been by more than six points.

▶ With 39 sacks this season, this is Buffalo’s second-most ever through the first 11 games. Only the 2014 team led by Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes had more with 46.

▶ The Bills had a turnover drought on defense which was snapped in a big way last week, and they’ve been meaningful because their 19 takeaways have helped set up 65 points which is the highest total in the league.

▶ Hurts has now been the winning QB in 13 consecutive games against teams with winning records which is the longest such streak in the NFL since at least 1950.

▶ Allen (29) and Hurts (24) are the top two TD-producing QBs in the league this year. They are also the only two QBs in the NFL since the start of 2021 with at least 1,800 yards rushing and 20 rushing TDs.

▶ The Eagles have either shared or owned the NFL’s best record in every week since the start of the 2022 season, and they are the first team to begin consecutive seasons 9-1 or better since the 2005-06 Colts.

▶ Since Nick Sirianni took over as Eagles coach in 2021, his team has beaten its AFC opponents in 10 of 11 games. The only loss was, somehow, to the Jets earlier this season.

Buffalo Bills schedule 2023

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Eagles prediction and keys to heavyweight Week 12 game