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Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins prediction, keys to game that'll decide AFC East title

Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
·11 min read

Is it possible that we’re overthinking Sunday night’s colossal showdown at Hard Rock Stadium where the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will play for the AFC East division title?

Maybe Bills fans can tone down the stress level and not be too worried about whether the Bills will get it done in a game that carries huge ramifications. After all, this is Josh Allen going against the Dolphins, and since he entered the league in 2018, Miami has essentially played the role of the Washington Generals to his Harlem Globetrotters wizardry.

How Josh Allen has fared vs Miami Dolphins

The numbers are absurd. Allen has started 12 games against the Dolphins counting the postseason and he is 10-2, has passed for 3,356 yards with 34 TDs and just seven interceptions, and he has rushed for 591 yards and five more TDs. In five of those games against his favorite foil, he was named AFC offensive player of the week.

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His most recent virtuoso performance came in Week 4 earlier this year, a 48-20 decimation of previously unbeaten Miami during which he threw for 320 yards and four TDs, rushed for one TD, and had the first perfect passer rating (158.3) of his career.

Allen’s dominance of the Dolphins, though still in the early going, is starting to look like Tom Brady’s against the Bills. But almost as if Brady called him Wednesday and fed him the standard line that he would use before all of those games where Brady embarrassed the Bills, Allen said this about his career owning of Miami:

“I’ve played well against them in the past,” he said with a neutral look on his face, “but it doesn’t mean I’m gonna play well against them this week unless I prepare well and work hard in practice and get on the same page as receivers, and the five guys up front do their job and the receivers catch the ball, so it takes everybody to do that.”

Josh Allen has dominated the Dolphins in his career, winning 10 of 12 starts.
Josh Allen has dominated the Dolphins in his career, winning 10 of 12 starts.

He has a point. Every game is different, every game has its own flow, crazy things can happen and that is exactly why you play the games. You never know, maybe this time the Dolphins will rise up and find a way to contain Allen and beat him. This certainly the best Dolphins team Allen has played against.

One guy who has the utmost respect for Allen is the man whose defense Allen torched back on Oct. 1, Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Thursday, he said of Allen, “This guy is the new John Elway on steroids, and I don’t mean he’s taking steroids.They are very similar. Different body types, different running styles, but (they present) the same problems, for sure. Allen is just a beast of a guy, a physical specimen. Like John Elway was in the mid-80s to the mid-90s … (Allen is) just bigger, faster, cannon for an arm, tough. He’s a dude.”

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If Allen plays like the dude Fangio knows he is, the Bills have a great chance to win. If he doesn’t, Sunday night could be a catastrophe for the Bills, especially if neither the Steelers or Jaguars lose their games.

Here’s my preview of the Bills vs Dolphins game, followed by my prediction:

Buffalo Bills on offense vs Miami Dolphins

Stefon Diggs celebrating one of the three TDs he scored in the first game against Miami this season.
Stefon Diggs celebrating one of the three TDs he scored in the first game against Miami this season.

Numbers can be a tricky thing sometimes in football, and when it comes to the Dolphins’ defense, there’s a case to be made that it’s not as effective a unit as it would seem. Miami ranks ninth in the NFL in yards allowed (308.6), half a yard better than the Bills, and has had nine games where the opponent failed to reach 300 yards. But let’s take a closer look at that:

Those games came against the Patriots and Jets twice each, and the Panthers, Giants, Chiefs, Raiders and Commanders. Every one of those teams is offensively challenged with the exception of the Chiefs, and they certainly haven’t been close to their previous level in 2023. The Dolphins have taken advantage of a series of terrible QBs, but when they have stepped up in competition, they have been vulnerable. The Chargers, when they were healthy in Week 1, had 433 yards and 34 points, while the Bills (414 and 48), Eagles (355 and 31), Cowboys (339 and 20) and Ravens (491 and 56) all moved well.

In those games, Miami is 2-3, and that’s not counting the meltdown loss to the Titans when the Dolphins allowed 403 yards and 28 points. Put another way, in games against current winning teams this year, which were only five - Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles, Ravens - Miami's defense has allowed 35 points per game, a completion percentage of 73.6, a yards per pass attempt of 9.4, and an opposing passer rating of 139.8. That's eye-opening.

Miami won’t have its two best edge rushers, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, nor one of its best CBs, Xavien Howard, and it may not have LB Jerome Baker who is questionable. Those are significant pieces and the Dolphins will be relying on several backups to come through against a QB who has routinely picked them apart. They will have star CB Jalen Ramsey who missed the game in Orchard Park, and that’s not trivial. In the first meeting, Stefon Diggs roasted CB Kader Kohou for 120 yards and three TDs, so you can bet Ramsey’s going to travel with Diggs.

Fangio blitzed Allen on nine of his dropbacks in the first game and the result was 9 of 9 for 126 yards and a TD. In the last three weeks the Cowboys, Chargers and Patriots all blitzed Allen frequently and he was far less effective - a combined 11 of 28 for 167 yards. However, given the diminished pass rush capabilities with Chubb and Phillips out, Fangio may choose to rush four and cover with seven in an effort to take away space in the passing game.

It will be imperative that Buffalo’s other weapons contribute because the way things have gone for Diggs lately, there’s a good chance he gets neutralized by Ramsey who is allowing only 46.4% of the passes thrown his way to be completed. Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir will need to be involved, same for Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, and obviously, if the Dolphins are going to play seven in coverage, the Bills need to feed James Cook against those lighter defensive alignments. If he gets rolling on the ground, that should loosen things in the pass game.

Buffalo Bills on defense vs Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill has 112 catches for 1,717 yards and 12 TDs this season, but he was neutralized in the Oct. 1 game at Highmark Stadium.
Tyreek Hill has 112 catches for 1,717 yards and 12 TDs this season, but he was neutralized in the Oct. 1 game at Highmark Stadium.

Similar to their defense, the Dolphins may be without two critical pieces on offense as RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle will both be listed as questionable after neither played last week and did not practice Wednesday and Thursday and were limited Friday. Mostert has a franchise-record 21 TDs this season so if he’s out or limited, that’s a big loss, though Miami has a terrific No. 2 in rookie De’Von Achane, an explosive player averaging an insane 8.0 yards per rush.

Waddle would be the bigger loss. So much attention gets focused on Tyreek Hill, and for good reason, but check this out: In the four games Hill has played against Buffalo as a member of the Dolphins, he has 21 catches on 37 targets for a rather mundane 229 yards and one TD. Since entering the NFL in 2021, Waddle has faced the Bills six times and he has 22 catches on 44 targets for 383 yards and a TD. It’s a massive dropoff from Waddle to WRs like Cedric Wilson, Chase Claypool, Robbie Chosen and Braxton Berrios.

If Waddle - who has 1,014 yards this season - can’t play, the Dolphins will obviously lean heavily on Hill. Even on his sore ankle, Hill is dynamic, especially when the Dolphins put him in motion and given him a running start on routes. QB Tua Tagovailoa gets rid of the ball quicker than any QB in the league so they will scheme short throws to Hill to get the ball in his hands, and they will also try to get the speedy Achane out of the backfield and into space. The Bills do not have a defender who can keep pace with either of them so big plays will be a concern for the Bills if they don’t tackle well.

Miami’s offensive line has been banged up all year and thus has started 11 different combinations, yet it has remained tough to sack Tagovailoa (30, but he has been hit a league-low 56 times) because of his quick release. The Bills can still create problems, though, if they take his first read away because that’s when he can be vulnerable. The Dolphins’ offense lives and dies on precise timing and if the Bills can get Tagovailoa to his second or third read, they’ll be in good shape.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 24

The Dolphins should not be overlooked or counted out no matter how one-sided the rivalry has been. It’s a banged up team that coach Mike McDaniel will send out, but there are still plenty of players the Bills need to be concerned about on both sides of the ball, especially in a game with so much on the line. And sometimes, teams dealing with adversity can be even more dangerous.

There’s been some talk that just because Miami already has a playoff spot secured, it might not go full throttle. That’s a load of crap; the division title and the No. 2 AFC seed is on the line so Miami will be pushing hard to get the victory. The Dolphins have been great at home, 7-1 this season, and the last time they hosted the Bills in September 2022 they won.

Buffalo is going to need to play much better on offense than it has the last two weeks when it barely did enough to beat the Chargers and Patriots. Ultimately, I think it’s going to be a tight, tense and uncomfortable night but the Bills will find a way to win.

Bills vs. Dolphins: News and notes

Greg Rousseau recorded one of the four sacks the Bills had against Tua Tagovailoa in Buffalo's 48-20 victory.
Greg Rousseau recorded one of the four sacks the Bills had against Tua Tagovailoa in Buffalo's 48-20 victory.

▶ The Bills now have a streak of five consecutive seasons with at least 10 victories which is a new team record. They previously had four straight 10-win seasons from 1990-93.

▶ Buffalo has won 13 straight regular-season games in December/January dating back to a 33-27 overtime loss to Tampa Bay in 2021. Since 2020, the Bills are 18-2 in December/January.

▶ The Bills are coming off just their second game this year where they failed to gain at least 300 yards and it was just the sixth time in 65 games that has happened since the start of 2020.

▶ Diggs has 803 receptions in 135 career games which is the fifth-fewest games a player has needed to reach 800 in NFL history. Only Antonio Brown (126 games), Keenan Allen (127), Julio Jones (127) and Marvin Harrison (131) got there quicker.

▶ Bills LB Terrel Bernard is having a remarkable year. He is the first NFL defender since Seth Joyner of the 1991 Eagles to amass at least six sacks, three interceptions and three fumble recoveries in the same season.

▶ The Dolphins lead the NFL in most plays of 10-plus yards (243) and 50-plus yards (12), and they are tied for second in most plays of 25-plus yards (45).

▶ If the Dolphins win, they will record 12 victories in a season for the first time since 1990, and they will win the AFC East for the first time since 2008. That was the year when Tom Brady suffered a knee injury in the Patriots’ season opener and was done for the year. It was the only year from 2003 to 2019 when New England didn’t win the division.

▶ The Dolphins’ 19-3 record at home over the last 22 games is the best in the NFL, the best run they’ve ever had at Hard Rock Stadium, and if they win, they will reach eight home victories in a season for the first time since 1985.

▶ Miami is 31 points and 389 total yards away from setting franchise records in both categories, though of course, it’s now a 17-game season.

Buffalo Bills schedule 2023-24

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Dolphins prediction, keys to game to decide AFC East title