Bucks (early) offseason review: Is this the beginning of the end for them?
The Houston Rockets came into the offseason with plans to destabilize the Eastern Conference. After coming to terms on a three-year, $128.5 million agreement with Fred VanVleet, they were working hard to steal Brook Lopez from the Bucks. Ultimately, Lopez returned to Milwaukee for two years, $48 million, and according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania, the Rockets had a similar contract offer.
Losing Lopez would have been a significant step back for the Bucks that they probably wouldn’t have been able to recover from this season. Although they’re fine for now, they are limited in ways to improve the roster this year. But for the first 24 hours of free agency, their mortality was on bright display. This iteration of the Bucks could be closer to finished than we think, which could lead to questions surrounding the future of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
What the Bucks can do now
The Bucks are set to go over the $182.8 million second tax apron after coming to terms with Lopez on his contract, and Khris Middleton on a three-year, $102 million deal. They no longer have access to the mid-level or bi-annual exception, limiting them to signing minimum players and their draft picks. Jae Crowder, one of their only free agent with Bird rights, is set to return on a one-year deal.
The Bucks have many needs to address throughout their bench. They need a backup point guard to replace the outgoing Jevon Carter. They could use more versatile wings and scorers. They also could use a third big man behind Bobby Portis. They will be competing against teams like the Warriors, Celtics, and Sixers for the best available bargains they could get with the veteran minimum.
Some of the top big men available include familiar faces in Robin Lopez or the return of Meyers Leonard. Some of the better point guards available include Kendrick Nunn, Raul Neto, and Frank Jackson. Some wings still available include Kelly Oubre and TJ Warren.
Milwaukee could look to the trade market to pursue upgrades. However, they are limited in assets with MarJon Beauchamp as their most interesting prospect, and only one future first-round pick available to trade this season in 2029 or 2030. They don’t have any trade exceptions and have limited sizeable salaries to trade.
Their biggest salaries outside of their Big Three are Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, and Grayson Allen. Some of these players could become expendable depending on who the Bucks are able to sign. Carter’s deal with the Bulls covers three seasons, so he could also be included as part of an expanded sign-and-trade that gets the Bucks veterans back. Such a transaction wouldn’t be allowed by teams over the second tax apron starting next season.
A complicated future
The implementation of the second tax apron was designed to limit high-spending teams like the Bucks from making significant upgrades. With these restrictions and the repeater tax staring at them for the foreseeable future, their outlook has taken a significant turn. They will do what they can to put together the best roster they can with limited flexibility, but they’ll keep running into the same problems in future seasons. With their main starters getting older, their window of contention is probably running out faster than they hope.
Khris Middleton is entering his age 32 season and had a strong year coming back from a significant knee injury. Jrue Holiday is entering his age 33 season and was named an All-Star for the second time in his career. Lopez is entering his age 35 season and his best regular season where he finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. The Bucks’ margin for error is tight with so few options behind them, so any slippage from any of these players could cause major problems.
All these players are under contract through at least 2025, although Holiday can opt out of his deal after this upcoming season. If these players and the Bucks’ overall performance start to significantly decline, they will likely look next to trading some of them for replacements. They won’t be able to take on more salaries than they’re giving out starting next season, so they may have to break up these big contracts for several smaller ones.
If the team starts declining and breaking up, that could eventually fuel speculation on Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s future in Milwaukee. He only has one more year left on his deal before he can opt out and become a free agent in 2025. This could effectively begin his “pre-agency” as soon as next summer should he start thinking about going elsewhere.
Even if both Antetokounmpo and the Bucks entertained the idea of a trade in the near future, the timing couldn’t be any worse. The Bucks owe the Pelicans two unprotected first-round picks in 2025 and 2027, as well as first-round pick swaps in 2024 and 2026. They can’t reasonably bottom out with their own draft picks out of their control through 2027.
Even if Lopez left, the Bucks were already trending downward with their lack of future building blocks and draft equity. Either way, they are at a critical inflection point and their moves over the next year or so could determine their future.
You can follow Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan) on Twitter.
