Buccaneers got a great bargain in Baker Mayfield

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has gotten his career back on track this year. Along the way, Mayfield has become a major bargain for the Bucs.

His one-year deal has a base value of $4 million. He has another $4.5 million in available incentives, with up to $2 million coming from playing time and making the playoffs, up to another $1.5 million based on finishing in the top 10 in the NFL or top five in the NFC in passer rating ($300,000), touchdown passes ($300,000), total yards passing ($300,000), completion percentage ($300,000), and yards per pass ($300,000), and another $250,000 for each playoff win, up to $1 million.

Regardless of the specific incentives he ultimately earns, a total payout of less than $10 million for a wire-to-wire starting quarterback who takes his team to the playoffs (if they make it there) at a time when the market value at the position has rocketed past $50 million per year creates the kind of value that teams with veteran quarterbacks on their second contracts or beyond rarely realize.

Mayfield's real reward is looming. He has said he wants to stay with the Buccaneers. His next deal in Tampa would be significantly more valuable than his current one. And if the Bucs won't do it, someone else will. The franchise tag, which likely will be in the range of $35 million, would give Mayfield more in 2024 than he made under his four-year rookie deal as the first overall pick in 2018 ($32.68 million).

So, yes, he's playing well enough to get paid a lot more. For now, the Bucs have been able to get solid play through 14 games for peanuts, relative to what competent veteran quarterbacks make.

And anyone could have had him. Including, for instance, the Falcons, who gave Taylor Heinicke $6.32 million guaranteed for 2023. Or maybe the Saints, who gave Derek Carr $60 million fully guaranteed at signing — with another $10 million that becomes fully guaranteed in March 2024. If the Buccaneers win the NFC South, the Falcons and Saints will regret not giving him a closer look.

Last year, Mayfield made a bet on himself by giving up $4.6 million of his $19.9 million option-year salary to get out of Cleveland. It didn't work out. This year, Mayfield's bet on himself is paying off for the Buccaneers in the short term. Over the long haul, Mayfield might end up with the kind of contract the Browns never gave him.

Along the way, Mayfield has re-established himself as a quality starter who is a great leader and, quite possibly, a division champion. He's still only 28. He could still end up being one of the better quarterbacks in the league.

This year, he is. Especially since he's done something plenty of starters haven't. He has started every single game, through late December.

So where will he be next year? Again, he has said he wants to stay in Tampa Bay. Other teams looking for a starter could disrupt that, whether it's the Patriots or the Steelers (if they decide Kenny Pickett isn't the answer) or the Raiders or the Broncos (if they move on from Russell Wilson) or the Vikings (if Kirk Cousins leaves) or the Seahawks (if they choose to move on from Geno Smith).

Regardless, Mayfield likely will have more options in March 2024 than he had in March 2023. And that might end up being enough to get the Buccaneers to apply the franchise tag — which will give Mayfield the kind of one-year salary that few expected him to realize after the Browns became fixated on Deshaun Watson and Mayfield landed with a Carolina team that fired head coach Matt Rhule only five games into Mayfield's time there.