Brooklyn Nets season preview — the Mystery Box

As part of its season preview series, NBC Sports is focusing on teams where we have no idea what to expect — they could be much better than we expect or completely fall apart. Both options are possible. Up next: The Memphis Grizzlies.

No roster has seen more overhaul in the last year than the Brooklyn Nets. One year ago we talked about how far Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving could take Brooklyn in the playoffs, but by February both of them were playing in the Western Conference. The roster that was built from those trades is…something.

Certainly something interesting. There is talent — Mikal Bridges, Ben Simmons, Spencer Dinwiddie, Nic Claxton, and the list goes on — but I have no idea how it will all fit together for Jacque Vaughn and how good this team will be. If you told me they were in the top six in the East on the strength of an elite defense, I would buy it. If you told me they missed the playoffs entirely, I would buy it.

No team in the league may be more challenging to predict (although Toronto and Memphis might want in on that conversation). Here are the two keys to unlocking the mystery box that is the Brooklyn Nets.

Is Ben Simmons really back?

It has been easy to ignore this past summer’s “Ben Simmons is back” hype because we have seen that movie — and those Instagram workout videos — before.

Then training camp opened, the preseason started and Simmons is showing flashes. He is certainly moving better than we have seen in a couple of years.

And his passing is still elite.

The big question is not his jump shot — I think we’ve all given up on that — but instead can he use his size to play a physical game, get to the rim and not be afraid of getting fouled and sent to the free throw line? That is everything for him.

So far this preseason, Simmons is 2-of-5 from the free throw line in 65 minutes of play. That is a higher per-minute rate of getting to the line than he showed during the half-a-season he played last year, but nobody is going to confuse it for great. If Simmons once again goes into one of those funks where he largely avoids contact and free throws for weeks, his value drops.

The other question with Simmons is will his defense return to an elite level — remember, he was a player in the mix for Defensive Player of the Year during his time in Philadelphia. It’s unlikely he gets back to that level, but the Nets will hang their hat on the defensive end this season and Simmons needs to be a part of that.

Will the Nets score enough to win?

Brooklyn is set up to have a top-five defense in the league. Mikal Bridges is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. Nic Clayton is a high-level rim protector. Around them there is nothing but switchability and defensive versatility — Simmons, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith (who could end up a sixth man), Royce O’Neal and more. The Nets are going to get stops, and their defense will keep them in games.

Do they have enough offense to win those games?

Mikal Bridges looked like his Villanova self after the trade to Brooklyn and averaged 26.1 points per game with a very good 60.7 true shooting percentage, but can he replicate that over 82 games? Cameron Johnson is an incredible athlete and should have the ball in his hands more and be able to put up numbers. Spencer Dinwiddie can get his. Cam Thomas can light it up off the bench if given the minutes. Then there is Simmons, who is averaging seven assists a game in the preseason and is keeping the ball moving.

Is all that enough to make the playoffs — or at least the play-in — in the East?

That’s the mystery. Just don’t sleep on the Nets, the stars may be gone but this is a team retooling on the fly that will be solid. And maybe better than we think.