Broncos: Trevor Siemian is good enough for now
Last week, I wrote about what the Broncos could see from the Colts and what we could do against them. As a refresher: the Colts weren’t good at stopping the run and their secondary was a banged up mess having to rely on second and third stringers. Based on this, figured we could have a 250 rushing game with 2-3 run TDs, Also predicted based on their decimated secondary, Siemian would have the chance to show off and have a couple TDs.
West Coast Offense’s old school disciples of Bill Walsh believe dink and dunk wins. One could call it, smash mouth football. In very simplistic terms, we’ll just bulldoze our way down the field on the power running of our backs, tight ends and receivers. Run to set up the pass. Or threaten to run, to set up the pass using misdirection and rely on YAC. It is 180° from a Don Coryell, Peyton Manning arial attack offense. Fans should remember this when bemoaning a lack of an air offense. *me, too.
We’ve heard many times that we’re now seeing a true Gary Kubiak scheme, which is traditional WCO, not a variant many teams use. I disagree. We may be seeing a basic framework, but no way are we seeing the execution. No coach wants to rely on his defense and kicker to win games. Preserve or increase the lead, yes, but needed to win? No. Six points by the offense and fourteen by our kicker against the 27th ranked defense. Against a team whose defense allows an average 25 points a game, can’t be what Kubiak wants.
Not to mention, we are not seeing Elway play which many like to use as the Holy Grail of Kubiak. Elway threw the ball deep. He ran boots and naked boots. He used the entire field. Even at the end, when he was breaking down, and needed Terrell Davis to help, that man was a weapon. He invoked fear. DC’s never knew what they were getting and it wasn’t based on only six yard completions.
This is Trevor Siemian’s second game. It’s unfair to compare him to the Duke or expect to see the same production; however, we should see good progress each game. In the RZ, his numbers actually dropped from last week, against a far worse defense. That’s why Kubiak kicked field goals. He’s 1-6 with a 1 yard completion over two games. On blitzes, he has a 50% completion number. He did make more completions than last week and did improve third down production.
The good news, between the 30’s, he can lead the team down the field. He will pass the ball around. He does best when he has four (or more) eligible men. He does best with only one tight end. Which is good news since we have lots of WRs and only 1.5 TE’s. He throws a pretty ball, with a good throwing motion which are catchable and he rarely throws way off target. He can take a hit. He’s an efficient passer.
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The good news, our OL, with the starters, was very good. Siemian has only been sacked once. Max Garcia did better than last week. Weems came in and did well at RG when Donald Stephenson went down with an injury and Micheal Schofield moved over to his spot. Our run game dropped off to the right, when this occurred, but not as much as it could have.
The bad news, Siemian often missed open receivers. This is the biggest concern. On one play, DT was wildly waving his arms. When plays break down, he needs to look around. He often throws the ball away when he doesn’t need to. It’s his second game, but this hasn’t improved. He’s a smart guy. Not sure if he’s lacking the vision and poise needed to see an entire field or he’s so worried about making an INT, he immediately goes to the safest choice. He knows he’s playing under a microscope because there’s a first round draft pick breathing down his neck. If the latter is the case, playing cautious is hurting, not helping him grow.
We ran for 137 yards. He attempted 29 short passes. We didn’t see any bootlegs. He threw one 20 yard air completion and one 18 yard air completion. Not one air completion over 20 yards in either game. Our offense has scored once in the RZ. He threw more incompletions over 15 yards than completions. No one is going to fear this. Pitiful Indy showed that.
On his INT, he didn’t look before he threw it. He bobbled the snap and was more concerned with getting it out. He’s new, that happens. Luck was on side. Not sure if that became a pick six how he’d recover because the drive after this almost pick six, he threw poor passes and missed open reads. Almost threw another pick. He played against a secondary with no starters. Third string CB’s.
Schofield is back at RT. He struggles mightily against the outside pass rush. The good news, he was better than last year and did do better the longer the game went on. Was this because it was against the Colts? We shall see. I hope it’s from growth. He takes more grief than any player since Julius Thomas.
The good news, Trevor is very good at rolling out to the left. The bad news, ZBS relies on the right side for most runs. The good news, the right wasn’t why Siemian was mediocre. The good news, CJ had his longest run from the right and it was with Weems and Scho. The bad news, our run wasn’t better because Siemian only took three shots down the field. This meant the Colts were able to make plays without a secondary. So much so, that as I predicted, the Colts used a DB to sack Siemian. The good news, Siemian had time to make deep attempts on most drop backs if he wanted.
The good news, our offensive yardage is top ten. The bad news, no TDs to go with them. The good news, this can’t stay. With enough tries marching down the field, eventually we should break free. Find a winning combo.
Don’t tell me this is what Kubiak wants. The offense doing just enough with the kicker and defense winning the games. Last season, we had three games out of 19, that won without needing points from our defense and kicker. When our defense had a poor day, our offense couldn’t do it alone. This means every game is on the shoulders of our defense. As we heard, one unknown defensive player has verbalized his weariness about this.
Next week, we’re traveling to Cincinnati. They now have two weeks of game film on Siemian. He’s only been blitzed ten times. I see that changing. Cincy has a secondary, so the DL could take a chance and blitz him. After last week’s loss, they are on a mission to show they can do better than 2 sacks. With very few Air Yards, they may want to force him to throw it deep. Cincy linebackers aren’t great, but better than Indy to stop the short passes, so they could also make him throw screens where all three INTs came from.
Trevor can throw a good 30 yards. Maybe Kubes should have him try that a few times at the LOS rather than 15 yards back. I think our OL could make him a pocket a few times. Have him run some bootlegs and a couple nakeds since he can run to the left well. More throws on the run. Anything to stop him from dropping back 10-15 yards on what seems every pass. Our receivers don’t need all that time to run five yards. On several plays against Indy, our WR’s were just standing there. So many missed opportunities for points. Some on a couple missed/dropped passes, but most from a lack of vision. Or maybe not being allowed to stray from the play call?
People moaned about Kubes not going for it on fourth and his play calling becoming stale as the game wore on. He scripts his first halves. That means in second halves, he tosses out what doesn’t work. If Siemian is getting better, than we should see the playbook increase, not decrease. If you have uncovered WR’s just standing 15 yards away, what are we doing? We have a better OL, we have a better run game, we have the same receivers from last season. There is zero excuse why our offense shouldn’t have scored more against Indy, new QB or not.
Cincy should be this offense’s do or die game. Cincy only has two sacks. If Kubiak can’t open up his playbook, then it’ll be time for a spark. I seriously doubt anyone wants to rely solely on the defense to win every game. If Siemian is as good as we’re told, then he and his offense should beat the Bengals. If this offense is why we win, you roll him into Tampa.
I’m not going to call for Paxton Lynch, until we see what happens in Cincy. I want to see better field vision and increased play calling in the fourth quarter, showing the offense has gotten better. See drives ending in TDs, not FG’s. See RZ production. It’s wrong to make decisions on new QBs after three games, but in our case, we have a first rounder waiting in the wings. If our QB is missing open guys, throwing more INTs than TDs, it makes no sense not to get the same from #12.
In the meantime, I am thrilled with our defense, improved run, improved OL and Siemian’s ability to move the ball between the 30’s. 2-0 baby!
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