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Breaking down the numbers that matter heading into Knicks' second-round NBA playoffs matchup with Pacers

ian begley
·7 min read
4

The Knicks open their second round series against the Indiana Pacers on Monday night. When they do so, they’ll be the first Knick team in more than 20 years (1999-2000) to play in the second round in consecutive seasons. That 2000 team lost to Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals, capping a bitter rivalry between the two teams. That, of course, is ancient history at this point.

This series may be the start of a new Knick-Pacer rivalry. There are plenty of subplots (Jalen Brunson vs. his ex-coach Rick Carlisle; OG Anunoby vs. his old teammate Pascal Siakam; Obi Toppin vs. his old team, and on and on). But it will come down to Xs and Os and execution. For that, we turn to Brendan Brown, who has spent three decades in the NBA as a coach, scout and broadcaster. Below, Brown breaks down Knicks-Pacers ahead of Game 1:

PERSONNEL

1)          Tyrese Haliburton/T.J. McConnell

2)            Andrew Nembhard/Ben Sheppard

3)            Aaron Nesmith/Doug McDermott

4)            Pascal Siakim/Obi Toppin/Jarace Walker

5)            Myles Turner/Isaiah Jackson/Jalen Smith

POSITIVE TEAM STATS- REGULAR SEASON

** PPG- (123.3) (1ST)…FGA- (92.7) (1ST)…FG%- (50.7) (1ST)…3PT%- (37.4) (9TH)…AST (30.8) (1ST)…TOs- (12.9) (9TH)…BLK- (5.9) (8TH)…PACE (2ND)…OFF RATING (2ND)…NET RATING (10TH)…POINTS OFF TOs (4TH)…2ND CHANCE POINTS (7TH)…FAST BREAK POINTS (4TH)…PONITS IN PAINT (1ST)…LEAST D3PTAs (1ST)…DEF AST (4TH)…

NEGATIVE TEAM STATS- REGULAR SEASON

** FTAs- (20.5) (22ND)…PERSONAL FOULS- (21.4) (30TH)…DEF RATING (24TH)…DREB% (26TH)…TOT REB% (24TH)…DPPG- (120.2) (27TH)…DFG% (49.6%) (30TH)…DFTA- (26.0) (30TH)…ALLOWING 2ND CHANCE POINTS (26TH)…ALLOWING POINTS IN PAINT (30TH)…

THOUGHTS ON PERSONNEL

Brown: “The Pacers essentially went with an eight-man rotation in the Milwaukee series. Jackson can be a spot minutes player; he is a runner upfront. When Turner leaves the game, they will play Toppin and Siakam together at 4 and 5. If you are the Knicks, does Mitchell Robinson have a place in this series? The Pacers have small second unit and some pace.  Or do you look to (Precious) Achuiwa as more of a mobile big? I can see (Tom) Thibodeau going either way here…

“When Haliburton and McConnell play together in the backcourt, they can be very dynamic in terms of creating pace and dribble penetration into the lane. They can do it without a pick or with a very quick pick. Both players have a good feel of playing without the ball - sensing and driving the seams of weakside closeouts and rotations.

“Their bench was at the top of the league as a scoring unit. Toppin and McConnell came up big in their clinching Game 6. But moving (Buddy) Hield at the deadline and (Ben) Mathurin’s (14.5 ppg) injury thinned their firepower out a little. Sheppard is a three-point shooter.

INDIANA OFFENSIVE THOUGHTS

Brown: “Much is made of their pace game; they ranked second in pace in the regular season. But the Pacers only ranked ninth out of 16 playoff teams in their series against the Bucks. They still have frenzies where they can hit you with an 8-0 or like 10-2 run- in a hurry - and especially in the their building. Their bigs are excellent runners and their best fast break chances either come off a blocked shots or when Haliburton gets a rebound and just takes off.

“Their secondary break and flow game can be dangerous because the trailer - usually Turner- is a live scorer. He doesn’t just look to swing the ball; he will shoot that three if left alone. Siakam likes to leak out and look for the early postup/iso. If he draws a guard, he can be devastating. When he catches off the lane, he will take as many dribbles as needed to get off a shot. They slow down in these situations.

“In the halfcourt, they basically run all pick-and-roll sets with the exception of a couple of sets for Siakam (post or isolation for him). In charting them, I saw 20 different pick-and-roll calls within one game. So they are using Haliburton and McConnell in every different way and angle. They like staggered pick-and-rolls – just like the Sixers. Currently, Haliburton has not been the scorer or shooter that he was earlier in the season. He shot the three poorly (29 percent) vs the Bucks, and that suggests that you can go under (screens for him) and stay out of (defensive) rotations. If McConnell gets to the paint, very bad things happen. He is shooting as much as he ever has in his career; he makes those short jump shots. Otherwise, he has a great knack for picking out the open man. Turner is the last part of the equation. He is effective either rolling into the lane or popping. Turner averaged 19 on good shooting against Milwaukee.

“Coach Rick Carlisle is a good after time out play coach. Two concepts here: some form of a staggered screen is utilized; if it’s an individual player call, they would go to Siakam. In the playoffs, these plays can be vital – especially if the game is decided by a few points. We had that last series vs Sixers- all the little pieces count…

INDIANA DEFENSIVE CONCEPTS

Brown: “While some of the regular season numbers are gruesome, the Pacers guarded with more of a purpose in the Milwaukee series. They have good length in their starting lineup. Unlike the Sixers (Joel Embiid), they have bigs who are a lot more mobile and can be aggressive in pick-and-roll coverages. Siakam is a good switch defender in different sets.

“So who matches up with Brunson on the primary individual look? Unlike the Sixers, who used length to defend Brunson, Indiana can give the first call to a player who is kind of the same size and shape of Brunson in Nembhard. He guarded Damian Lillard Round 1. He is physical on the ball-very strong; think of Boston’s Derrick White. Nesmith is the second call, and now we are going back to the length concept that the Sixers used.  When McConnell comes in, he will pick up Brunson fullcourt, and basically faceguard Brunson everywhere. You can also see Haliburton and Siakam on Brunson as well. So there are lots of options here, but that doesn’t mean Brunson can’t beat the different looks. Remember, Carlisle coached Brunson in Dallas; how does that play into things?

“In the regular season, the Pacers were a weak defensive rebounding team; they also gave up a lot of second-chance points. They struggled to contain drives and prevent points in the paint. They fared a little better in those areas against the Bucks; but the Bucks didn’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo, who would have impacted those categories. So can the Knicks convert on potential second-chance points again? They did it well against in their two playoff series wins (against Cleveland last season and Philadelphia in Round 1). Turner coming off the floor is significant for the Knicks. The Pacers hustle a little better in this area than the Sixers did, but you are still looking at a physical/toughness edge for the Knicks when Turner is off the floor.

OTHER THOUGHTS

Brown: “Due in part to the schedule, the Knicks didn’t play a clean game against the Pacers in the regular season. The first game was the day of the Toronto trade, so you throw that out. The Knicks had an incredible comeback win at MSG in which they played great down the stretch. I think the “pace game” component from the regular season doesn’t play out as much in the playoffs. But Indiana plays a little different - not good or bad - they just give you different things to consider as a defense. Something else to consider: Nesmith was a weak offensive player for them in Round 1; do the Knicks funnel things his way like they did with (Tobias) Harris in the Sixers series? Buckle up, this will be some different basketball than Round 1, but I think it will be very exciting…”