Breaking down Arizona HS 3A, 2A football brackets: Anticipated upsets, shockers, winners

The 3A and 2A brackets were released Saturday, and while 2A looks like a three-team race to the gold ball, any of the 16 teams in 3A can win it all.

They'll all find out who ends up on top when the champions are crowned Nov. 25 in a day-night double-header at Phoenix Mountain Pointe. The 16-team playoffs for each conference begin next Friday at the sites of the higher seeds.

Here is The Arizona Republic's breakdown of the brackets.

3A Conference

First-round games: No. 16 Safford (4-6) at No. 1 Bullhead City Mohave (9-1); No. 9 Lakeside Blue Ridge (8-2) at No. 8 Tucson Pusch Ridge (7-3); No. 12 Eagar Round Valley (6-4) at No. 5 American Leadership West Foothills (8-2); No. 13 River Valley (7-3) at No. 4 Tucson Sabino (7-3); No. 14 Gilbert Christian (6-4) at No. 3 Surprise Paradise Honors (8-2); No. 11 Benjamin Franklin (7-3) at No. 7 Thatcher (6-4); No. 15 American Leadership Ironwood (6-4) at No. 2 Chandler Valley Christian (9-1).

Potential shocker: Safford can stun Mohave due to the much tougher schedule Safford. Safford's last six games came against playoff teams -- Sabino (50-21 loss), Blue Ridge (14-13 loss), Morenci (26-14 win), Round Valley (24-21 win), Thatcher (35-14 loss), Pusch Ridge (19-14 loss). The Bulldogs have a long trip to make but they'll be laser focused to take down a team coming off its only loss, 34-29 to Sabino.

Another upset: Watch for Round Valley shocking ALA West Foothills, a second-year program that gave Mohave a tough game at its place early in the year, and had three easy opponents in the last four weeks with only loss in that span for Sabino, 42-21. Round Valley has had a season of heart-break losses, but pulled it together Friday in a 24-14 win over a red-hot Blue Ridge team.

More dark horses: Thatcher and Morenci played much better the second half of the season than they did the first half. And the tough opponents will only make them ready to go all the way. It wouldn't be a surprise to see either one of them left standing, but they could potentially meet in the semifinals.

Key potential early matchups: A Paradise Honors and Valley Christian semifinal is what everybody is expecting. But Morenci, under first-year coach Rishard Davis, is going to make it tough in the second round against the nation's most prolific passer, PH's Gage Baker. Paradise Honors might have been weakened by playing a considerably weak schedule the second half of the season after playing tough teams early. Thatcher, which has matured by playing maybe the toughest 3A schedule in the state, will try to keep Valley Christian from going off in another great quarterfinal matchup.

Going the distance: That lower bracket that includes the above-mentioned four teams is extremely tough. But Sabino, coming off its impressive win over Mohave, might have found the right gear behind QB Cam Hackworth and WR Shamar Berryhill, to take it all the way. The Sabercats were The Arizona Republic's Preseason No. 1. They're my pick to win it all.

2A Conference

First-round games: No. 16 Holbrook (7-3) at No. 1 Pima (10-0); No. 9 Phoenix Christian (8-2) at No. 8 Tonopah Valley (8-2); No. 12 Veritas Prep (7-3) at No. 5 San Tan Charter (8-2); No. 13 St. Johns (7-3) at No. 4 Camp Verde (8-2); No. 14 Willcox (6-4) at No. 3 Scottsdale Christian (8-2): No. 11 Tombstone (8-2) at No. 6 Santa Cruz (8-2); No. 10 Parker (7-3) at No. 7 Tanque Verde (8-2); No. 15 Scottsdale Prep (7-3) at No. 2 Arizona Lutheran (10-0).

Potential shocker: Willcox over Scottsdale Christian. I don't expect it to happen, but look at who Willcox played. They lost to 3A Show Low when the Cougars had Nash Brewer at 100%. They played No. 2-seed Arizona Lutheran tough in the opener, before falling 32-21. They beat Tombstone and Tanque Verde, who both have higher seeds. And they shut out Benson 35-0. Since losing to Pima (23-20) and 3A No. 2 Valley Christian (37-28) in September, SCA's schedule had only one playoff team (Veritas Prep) in week after week of blowouts. That could make SCA prone for an upset.

Another potential upset: Camp Verde is sitting at No. 4, and St. Johns, at No. 12, is ready to make noise. The Redskins' three losses, all in the first half of the season, came against Pima, Blue Ridge (3A) and Round Valley (3A). The schedule was weak the second half of the season, but they can win this round.

Darkhorse: Tonopah Valley has the second-most prolific QB in the state in sophomore Malachi Wilt, and it could face a banged-up Pima team in the quarterfinals. Pima lost QB/DB/K Jaxon John in the first drive of its win over Santa Cruz, relying on a freshman to lead the offense. Tonopah would need to strike whenever it gets the ball because Pima liked to play keep-away, grinding out long drives on the ground.

Great expected semifinal: Expect Scottsdale Christian and Arizona Lutheran to meet in the bottom bracket semifinal with Pima awaiting the winner. Whoever wins that game should have the edge coming out of a tougher half of the bracket. ALA won it all in 2A two years ago, only to learn some hard lesson in a tough 3A season to come back strong this year.

Going the distance: Taking Arizona Lutheran, with four backs who amassed more than 370 rushing yards, to come out of Mountain Pointe with the gold ball.

To suggest human-interest story ideas and other news, reach Obert atrichard.obert@arizonarepublic.com or 602-316-8827. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter:@azc_obert

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Breaking down Arizona high school 3A, 2A football brackets