Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Yahoo's Week 11 fantasy predictions

Yahoo Sports

Each week our gaggle of Yahoo analysts show their hands and reveal their top booms, busts and breakouts. Gaze into the crystal ball and list your picks in the comment section below.

Among non-obvious starts in Yahoo leagues, the loudest BOOM in Week 11 will come from ________.

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Brad — DOUG MARTIN. This is equivalent to ordering raw oysters at a sketchy dive bar. It’s a risk, but — BOLD PREDICTION! — Martin scores his first touchdown of the season. Quietly, he’s amassed an impressive 2.9 YAC per attempt over the past three weeks. He looks spry, is being deployed in variable ways and is blessed with a scrumptious matchup. The Cards have given up 4.46 yards per carry, 168.3 total yards per game, 13 total TDs and the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. Roughly 70 combined yards and a TD are well within reach in a contest only fantasy players could love.

[Watch a special edition of ‘Fantasy Football Live’ from New Orleans on Nov. 18]

Dalton — STERLING SHEPARD. He’s coming off a quiet week (although he scored) but averaged a healthy 8.0 targets over his previous five games. He gets a Tampa Bay secondary in Week 11 that’s been gashed for the most fantasy points against the slot this season. Meanwhile, the Bucs have also ceded the fewest fantasy points over the last four weeks to Odell Beckham Jr.’s primary side, so Shepard should be plenty busy in a plus matchup with a high total (52 points).

Scott — ALEX COLLINS has been hard to trust this year. He’s been over 60 yards rushing just one time, and the Ravens even added a running back at the trade deadline. But Collins is starting to get his touchdown mojo working again — four spikes in four weeks — and Cincinnati’s rushing defense has fallen on hard times. Over the last five weeks, it’s the biggest giveaway for easy RB points. Make sure you play Collins aggressively this week.

Conversely, the brand name set to be the biggest Week 11 BUST is ________.

Brad — JOE MIXON. Even if A.J. Green miraculously returns to action this week, Mixon is avoidable if you have viable alternatives (e.g. Peyton Barber, Dion Lewis, Kerryon Johnson). In the first matchup in Cincy, he totaled a bland 87 combined yards without a score. Considering the Bengals’ sickly state and the fact Baltimore has allowed the fewest fantasy points to rushers, it’s plausible Mixon duplicates his earlier season effort or far worse.

Dalton — KEENAN ALLEN. I have Joe Mixon outside my top-20 backs this week, so I second Brad’s choice here while also fading Keenan Allen, who gets a Denver pass defense that ranks No. 3 in DVOA. Moreover, Allen has just two targets in the red zone since Week 4 (none inside the 10-yard line), and he gets arguably the league’s top slot corner this week in Chris Harris, who’s given up a measly 0.21 fantasy points per pass route this season.

Keenan Allen could have a tough time scoring another TD in Week 11. (AP Photo/John Hefti)
Keenan Allen could have a tough time scoring another TD in Week 11. (AP Photo/John Hefti)

Scott — It pains me to sit GOLDEN TATE at New Orleans, in a spot that screams out points, points, points. And amidst little fanfare, Carson Wentz has actually improved this year. But Tate only had two catches and 19 snaps in his Philly debut, and I need a prove-it game before Circle of Trust privileges return. Unless I’m backed into a corner, Tate won’t be in my Week 11 lineups.

Chuck a Hail Mary, one deeper player you believe BREAKS OUT in Week 11 is ______.

Dalton — TRE’QUAN SMITH. It’s understandable Smith is being started in just six percent of Yahoo leagues right now coming off a game in which he wasn’t targeted, but game script was oddly not in his favor despite the high score. He’ll likely get another chance in a shootout Sunday (O/U is 56 points). The Eagles have yielded the second-most fantasy points to Smith’s primary side this season, and their secondary is currently devastated with injuries. The explosive rookie wideout has upside, and you’ll want him in your lineup when he goes off.

Brad — JOSH ADAMS. Talked up as a deep sleeper for months by this overly loquacious dolt, Adams is finally getting his shot to secure the upper hand in Philly’s backfield. Over the past three weeks he’s totaled 155 yards on 20 carries, notching a ridiculous 3.8 yards after contact per attempt and 35 (!) missed tackle percentage. The Saints are tough customers in the trenches, allowing a league-low 2.85 yards per carry to RBs, but in a game with shootout appeal, Adams plows his way into the end-zone with approximately 60-65 yards.

Scott — JOSH REYNOLDS is sitting at eight percent started, so I guess he qualifies. Okay, he’s not Cooper Kupp — we know that. But any seat on the Sean McVay bandwagon is a good one; the Rams use three wideouts more than any other offense.  Monday’s game has the highest total in recorded NFL history. Get a piece of the Rams, gamers. Go where the points are. Reynolds comped to Marvin Jones during his draft run-up, so there’s an intriguing upside for the sophomore.

Handicapping Lounge: If I had to go to the window to punch a Week 11 against-the-spread ticket, my jelly beans would be on  ______.

Dalton — Arizona -5. The Cardinals are competent enough to handle this checked-out Raiders team that’s allowed the most yards-per-play in the NFL this season, although I don’t love how this line keeps moving.

Scott —  Seattle -3. Pete Carroll is 7-1 in these Thursday Night spots, and home teams are generally a good bet to get the money when the short turnaround is involved. 

Brad — New Orleans -9. The Saints, covering machines, are 7-2 ATS on the season and 5-1 against fellow NFC participants. With “Fantasy Football Live” on location in The Big Easy this week, they receive the FFL bump and cruise to a double-digit win.

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