Booms, Busts, and Breakouts: More struggles for Dalvin Cook among Week 5 predictions
Each week our gaggle of Yahoo analysts show their hands and reveal their top booms, busts and breakouts. Gaze into the crystal ball and list your picks, using the strict rules set, in the comment section below.
Among non-obvious start or DFS plays for Yahoo leagues, the loudest BOOM in Week 5 will come from ________.
Dalton — MATT BREIDA. Playing through injuries and on a 1-3 team, Breida leads the NFL in YPC (7.6) and 20+ yard rushes (six). He also has yet to commit a drop after finishing with the worst drop rate among running backs last season. C.J. Beathard is likely to feature Breida a ton in the passing game, and Sunday’s setup looks favorable with the 49ers four-point home favorites against a Cardinals defense that’s been gashed for the most fantasy points by running backs this season. Breida keeps dealing with bumps and bruises (namely knee and shoulder ailments), and at 190 pounds doesn’t project as a true workhorse, but he’s got sneaky upside as the lead runner in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, especially in Week 5’s favorable matchup.
Brad — CHRIS THOMPSON. The spirited change-of-pace back has become Alex Smith’s weapon of choice. He’s seen more targets (23) than prominent wide receivers DeSean Jackson, Kenny Stills and Calvin Ridley…in one fewer game played. Even with a weakened Adrian Peterson (ankle) dominating interior touches, Thompson should be leaned on heavily in the short field. Keep in mind the Saints are staunch in the trenches giving up only 2.96 yards per carry to RBs. Roughly 8-10 receptions for 70-90 total yards and a score is attainable for Thompson.
Scott — I’m not sure that AARON JONES is any big secret, but his start percentage is similar to Breida and Thompson, so I’ll kick him in here. Jones is more talented than Jamaal Williams — but keep starting Williams in those pass-blocking leagues — and Ty Montgomery is not someone the Packers want to over-expose. Detroit’s the third-friendliest defense when it comes to running back production. If any Green Bay back eats in Motown, it’s going to be Jones (my suggestion, start in the suburbs at Redcoat Tavern).
Conversely, among players started in over 50 percent of Yahoo leagues, the biggest Week 5 BUST will be ________.
Scott — Although I endorsed Aaron Jones, above, I can’t sign off on AARON RODGERS against the Lions. He might be without Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb. Davante Adams will probably see a lot of Darius Slay, Detroit’s best cover guy. Stubborn offensive designer Mike McCarthy is commonly in Rodgers’ way, too. And Rodgers hasn’t been fully healthy all year.
If you’re not crushing in Pinball 2018, you’re way behind. Rodgers had 298 passing yards and a score last week; numbers that used to be a passable game. In Week 4, it made him the QB19. He’s not an automatic start for me right now. I don’t care what you paid for him and what the legacy is; fantasy football is about the numbers, not the names.
Brad — TYREEK HILL. The smack talk showdown between Tyreek and Jalen Ramsey is already underway. The wide receiver was rather congenial in his declarations about the DB, setting the stage for the pair to square off Sunday. Odell Beckham is the only WR to exceed 65 yards against the Jags this season. More specifically, Ramsey has allowed just a 79.9 passer rating and 0.80 yards per snap to his assignments. Hill can disappear at times and given the intimidating foe, it’s doubtful he cages the Jags. A final line around 3-60-0 is on deck.
Dalton — DALVIN COOK. He’s played better than his 2.7 YPC would indicate (Cook ranks second in Juke Rate and third in Elusive Rating), but Minnesota’s offensive line has been a real issue (he’s gotten -0.3 YPC when facing stacked fronts this season). Cook is coming off extra rest having last played Thursday night, but he recently admitted his hamstring isn’t yet 100 percent, which is a big concern given the inability of his blockers to open holes. Moreover, the Vikings travel to Philadelphia to face an Eagles front seven that’s yielded the second-lowest YPC (3.4) and second-fewest fantasy points against running backs this season.
Chuck a Hail Mary, one deeper player you believe BREAKS OUT in Week 5 is ______.
Dalton — DEDE WESTBROOK. He turned 13 targets into 130 yards last week and now gets a Kansas City secondary that’s ceded 7.9 YPA this season. The Chiefs’ offense at home should put up more points than Jacksonville’s accustomed to allowing, resulting in more Jaguars passing than usual. K.C. isn’t most vulnerable defending Westbrook’s slot position, but the former Biletnikoff Award winner ranks top-15 in yards per target and yards per route run. With Leonard Fournette out and an Over/Under approaching 50, Sunday’s game is setting up nicely for Westbrook to finish Week 5 as a top-25 WR, yet he’s currently being started in just eight percent of Yahoo leagues.
Scott — CHESTER ROGERS popped Sunday against Houston (8-85-0, on 11 targets) and he should get plenty of opportunity Thursday against New England, with T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle out. Rogers is used almost exclusively in the slot — a money-making assignment given the shape of the league today. Rogers is owned in just three percent of Yahoo leagues.
Brad — RYAN SWITZER. Admittedly, this is a deep-sea dive. Switzer, who probably isn’t tall enough to ride on most rollercoasters, is the fifth option, albeit in a prolific passing offense. Why on earth is he worth the time and energy? It all has to do with matchup. Atlanta, annihilated by short-field passes, is extremely vulnerable to crosses, drags and slants, evidenced by Tyler Boyd’s standout performance in Week 4. Switzer, who lines up in the slot 68.8 percent of the time, is in an advantageous position against Brian Poole, who’s surrendered a 72.5 catch percentage on 62 targets. For those with limited waiver options, he could be an outside-the-box 6-8 catch producer.
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Handicapping Lounge: If I had to go to the window to punch a Week 5 against-the-spread ticket, my jelly beans would be on ______.
Dalton — Oakland +5. Both teams are struggling on defense (the Chargers have allowed an AFC-high 8.7 YPA), and I expect this divisional shootout’s outcome not to be decided until late, so I’ll happily take the points.
Scott — The Cardinals +4.5 look good to me. I liked what I saw from Josh Rosen on rewatch (he had two touchdown passes dropped on him), and Arizona’s defense isn’t that bad (it’s currently ranked 11th in DVOA). The Arizona coaching staff doesn’t soothe me, but I’m not ready to lay this type of number on a Niners offense that’s relying on its backup quarterback and a host of pedestrian wideouts.
Brad — Seattle +7. The public has steadily pounded the Rams knowing Seattle is without hard-hitting DB, Earl Thomas. Roughly 77 percent of public spread tickets are on Sean McVay and Co. When in doubt, fade the majority. The ‘Hawks have yielded only 6.5 yards per attempt and will snuggly maintain pace with an L.A. secondary down Aqib Talib.
