Week 7 Fantasy Lames: Edelman to shiver on Revis Island
Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names whom he believes are destined to
implode leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 13 fpts, WR: 11 fpts, TE: 10 fpts). If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 7 Lames in the comments section below.
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See Also: Week 7 Flames
Matt Ryan, Atl, QB (83 percent started, $36 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Ten
Matty Ice is a fitting nickname for the overrated QB. Based on his recent string of chilly performances, he might as well be a tauntaun on Hoth. His 17.2 per game average is respectable, but he currently ranks No. 18 at the position in week-to-week output, a far cry from the top-10 expectations most placed on him preseason. Julio Jones' tender hammy, Roddy White's precipitous decline and an increase in heat (35.3 pressure%) have all played factors, but nothing has hindered Ryan's value more than Devonta Freeman. Similar to previous incarnations in Houston and Cleveland, Kyle Shanahan has orchestrated a run-heavy offense. Freeman's meteoric ascension and Atlanta's much improved efforts in run-blocking (No. 4 in the category per Football Outsiders) explain the conservative scripts. Another mediocre effort is on the horizon. Dick LeBeau may have once played alongside Red Grange, but the septuagenerian hasn't lost his touch for defensive game-planning. The Titans secondary has overachieved allowing a league-low 14.8 pass completions per game. Peeking under the hood, corner Coty Sensabaugh has surrendered a 50.0 catch percentage to his assignments. Similar to Miami's blueprint last week versus Tennessee, bank on Atlanta to lean heavily on the ground game. Blake Bortles (vs. Buf), Tyrod Taylor (vs. Jax) and Josh McCown (at StL) will pack more fantasy punch.
Fearless Forecast: 20-34, 268 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 interception, 13.7 fantasy points
Justin Forsett, Bal, RB (84 percent started, $26)
Matchup: at Ari
After a slow start that had many in Fantasyland flustered, Baltimore's Mighty Mouse has regained his versatile superpowers. He's fought through a tender ankle and racked 140.3 total yards per game, 5.1 yards per carry and forced 12 missed tackles during the past three weeks. His subsequent 16.0 fantasy points per game according to Yahoo default settings ranks No. 6 among RBs, drying owners' sweaty brows. This week, however, his backers better apply a thick layer of Old Spice. Unless your name happens to be Todd Gurley, Arizona, which currently boasts the toughest D-line versus the run according to Football Outsiders, is a place where running back value suffers. Over the Cardinals' past 19 home games, only seven visiting RBs have reached "Flame" status. In total, RBs over that stretch are averaging just shy of 3.6 yards per carry. Calais Campbell, one of the league's scariest off-the-edge run stuffers, has accounted for 18 stops alone. Collectively, the Cardinals have given up 3.72 yards per carry to RBs and the sixth-fewest fantasy points. Forsett should receive upwards of 20-22 touches, but keep expectations tempered.
Fearless Forecast: 19 attempts, 73 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 19 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 11.2 fantasy points
Chris Johnson, Ari, RB (52 percent started, $20)
Matchup: vs. Bal
After a year of indecisive runs and general ineptitude in New York, most, me included, believed CJ2Lame would never see the field again. The man resembled reconstituted canned chili, to put it mildly. But the former rush king has played admirably running behind a rock solid Arizona offensive line. Thanks to Johnson, and to a lesser extent David Johnson and Andre Ellington, no team has recorded more runs of 10-plus yards (15) than the Cardinals. Even down Mike Iupati earlier this season, the ogres up front proved unrelenting. Though CJ continues to receive a large per game helping (16.5), he isn't the strongest option in Week 7. On the back end the Ravens are overly accommodating. Passing attacks have pounded them ceaselessly. It's likely Carson Palmer will do the same, but considering Johnson is surrendering occasional goal-line work to DJ, a TD is stretch. Throw in the fact Baltimore has allowed just 3.54 yards per carry to RBs and it's justifiable to play Christine Michael (at NYG), Danny Woodhead (vs. Oak) or Dion Lewis (vs. NYJ) over him.
Fearless Forecast: 13 attempts, 45 rushing yards, 1 reception, 6 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns
Julian Edelman, NE, WR (95 percent started, $31)
Matchup: vs. NYJ
The spiritied Pats receiver is up to his usual crafty ways. Splitting time between the slot and flank, he's devoured opposing defenses in small chunks, picking them apart on short slants, crosses and screens. If he maintains his brisk 128-1436-13 pace, he would post the 10th-most valuable fantasy season all-time in PPR settings, just behind Marvin Harrison's epic 2002 campaign. That's esteemed company. His trending numbers, however, could take a hit this week against former teammate Darrelle Revis. As T.Y. Hilton (7-45-0 vs. Revis) and Jarvis Landry (4-40-0) can attest, "The Island" is again proving to be a cold, lonely place for wide receivers. On the season, the decorated corner has drawn 25 targets, surrendering just 11 catches (44.0 catch%) and a 32.8 QB rating. Among eligible CBs, only Patrick Peterson (41.7 catch% allowed) has been stingier. Throw in Edelman's historical uselessness against the Jets (10 games: 3.8 rec/g, 40.8 rec/ypg, 1 total TD), and the evidence suggests a brief downturn is highly likely. At $31 in Yahoo DFS, he's a high-risk, low-reward option. Fade.
Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 53 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.3 fantasy points
[Week 7 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Flex | Tight End | All Positions]
Amari Cooper, Oak, WR (50 percent started, $27)
Matchup: vs. SD
For those that invested an early-round pick in the gifted rookie, expectations have been met, for the most part. He's displayed the route polish, open-field acceleration and Spidey hands that made him the can't-miss WR prospect in last May's draft. In five games, he's averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game (.5 PPR), ranking as a back-end WR2 in 12-team formats. If he continues his 89-1235-6 pace, he will notch the 13th-best season among WRs in franchise history. For all intents and purposes, Cooper is a modern day Tim Brown. This week, though, he'll take on the appearance of another Brown, Charlie, rock-filled trick-or-treat bag and all. San Diego corner Jason Verett is a pesky fly. His dogged tenacity generally annoys and frustrates opponents. On 243 snaps, he's allowed a lowly 50.0 catch percentage and 37.0 QB rating to his assignments. He blanketed Antonio Brown and Randall Cobb in Weeks 5 and 6, respectively, yielding only five combined catches for 83 yards and no scores. Unless Bill Musgrave creatively shifts Cooper around to draw Brandon Flowers (16.7 ypc allowed) in one-on-one situations, the rookie could vanish into the nether. I will gladly take Allen Hurns (vs. Buf), Donte Moncrief (vs. NO) and Willie Snead (at Ind) over him.
Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 49 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.4 fantasy points
BONUS WEEK 7 LAMES
#TEAMHUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Flames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?
@YahooNoise QB: Wilson RB: A. Foster, D. Martin WR: B. Cooks, A. Cooper TE: J. Graham DEF: Houston #TeamHuevos #HeGotLame
— Ryan Neo (@NeoAC18) October 21, 2015
Reader Record: 25-17
Want to bull rush Brad? Find him on Twitter. Also, check out the Yahoo! Fantasy and Rotoworld crew every Tuesday-Thursday on 'Fantasy Football Live' starting at 6:30 PM ET on NBC Sports Network (Find channel here).