Bills draft picks 2024 analysis: How the new players fit with the team

ORCHARD PARK - At first glance, the Buffalo Bills 2024 draft class does not blow you away, and there are a couple reasons for that.

The most obvious is this: By trading out of the first round Thursday night - and it took two separate deals to do that - the Bills deprived their fans the excitement of NFL commissioner Roger Goodell walking onto the stage in Detroit to the usual cacophony of boos, announcing that “the Buffalo Bills select” and then wrapping that player in his now patented first-round hug. Not having that first-round pick just seemed to diminish things.

But also, on a more macro level, there just isn’t a player among the 10 the Bills selected across three days that truly gets your blood pumping, and that includes the first player they picked, wide receiver Keon Coleman, who they grabbed at the very top of the second round Friday night after their trade down with Carolina.

I think one of the dumbest things we do in the media is write draft grade stories in the immediate aftermath of the draft. It’s mostly impossible to know how any of these kids will transition from their glory days in college which led to them being drafted, to the rugged and ultra challenging world of the NFL. We weren't sure what Josh Allen would ever be when the Bills picked him No. 7 in 2018, and there were plenty who believed he'd be a bust.

So no, I’m not going to grade the Bills’ draft based on a bunch of statistics, highlights, and the various draft analysts’ evaluations of their performance in college. We need to see how these players adapt to their new teams, their new teammates and coaches, and the offensive and defensive systems they’re about to get force fed in the coming months.

For now, all I’m willing to do is offer a few thoughts on how I thought last weekend went for the Bills, and what the addition of their 10 draft picks might do to the composition of their roster.

Keon Coleman has big shoes to fill

The wide receiver from Florida State via Michigan State talks a good game, that’s for sure. He breezed into the Bills’ media room Saturday afternoon with a seemingly fun-loving personality that will likely ingratiate himself with Bills Mafia.

He began his 15-minute session by sharing his philosophy on when is the right time to buy a winter coat at Macy’s, and he ended it by helping himself to a few snacks that are provided to us reporters. He put on a nice show and reporters ate it up.

I’m more interested in what he’s going to do to help replace the 608 catches for 8,102 yards and 64 TDs that walked out the door in the form of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

It seemed clear to me that general manager Brandon Beane was hoping that LSU’s Brian Thomas would fall to No. 28 in the first round, but the Jaguars took him at No. 23. We don’t know whether Beane tried to trade up to get in position to pick the player who was widely regarded as the best receiver prospect after the undeniable top threesome of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, all of whom went in the first nine picks, but I’d guess that he was working the phones pretty hard.

Failing that, he realized no other receiver on the Bills’ draft board had a first-round grade, but Coleman was close and he knew he could make the two trades down to pick up a couple picks and still get Coleman right where he did.

I thought it was a smart strategy because it landed the Bills a third-round pick and improved their fourth-round position, and it saved them some precious salary cap space not paying a first-rounder in a year when they need every penny. But now, Coleman has to prove he was the right choice because later in the second round, Ladd McConkey (with the very next pick) went to the Chargers, Ja’Lynn Polk went to the Patriots (so that will be a highly scrutinized comparison) and Adonai Mitchell went to the Colts.

There is a segment of fans who aren’t thrilled with Beane’s work in remaking the receiver position. Drafting Coleman and signing free agents Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins to join holdover Khalil Shakir feels a little light, but replacing the massive production from Diggs alone was always going to be difficult. The Bills really need Coleman to step in and contribute immediately.

“We like the group we have, what we’ve added and what will be done by the time this weekend is over,” Beane said. “But our cap is our cap, so if you’re expecting something big or anything like that, there’s no trade coming (for a veteran). I know everyone links us to every trade in the league, but no, we’re in pretty good shape.”

Draft pick playing time won’t be plentiful

Fans are frustrated by the Bills’ inability to get past the divisional round of the playoffs three straight years, but that doesn’t change the fact that this is still a very good team with a solid roster, one that has won four straight AFC East titles, meaning rookies will have a tough time cracking the lineup.

If all goes well, Coleman should become a regular part of the three-receiver group the Bills will likely favor, joining Samuel and Shakir plus tight end Dalton Kincaid. His prime competition could be Hollins, Justin Shorter and K.J. Hamler, but if the Bills’ evaluation on him is correct, he’ll beat them out.

Beyond Coleman, though, the path to playing time will be difficult for this class.

You would expect third-round pick DeWayne Carter to get on the field as part of the Bills’ four-man rotation at defensive tackle. Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones and free agent Austin Johnson figure to get the highest percentage of snaps, but Carter will compete with veteran free agent Deshawn Williams who is on a low-investment one-year contract.

Second-round pick Cole Bishop would have to have a great training camp to supplant either of the new starting safety duo of Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards, who have their own challenges replacing Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. Bishop’s best chance might be if the Bills reprise the three-safety dime look they used last year and put Bishop in the box ala Poyer.

However, you must remember the Bills went to that defense in 2023 because they lost linebacker Matt Milano in Week 5 and they didn’t want Tyrel Dodson on the field for passing downs. This year, Milano is back with fellow linebacker Terrel Bernard and neither is coming off the field so Bishop may wind up getting the bulk of his snaps on special teams.

Ray Davis could be a surprise contributor

The running back from Kentucky via Vanderbilt and Temple was taken in the fourth round and this was a player Beane seemed really excited about.

Beane saw him play on one of his scouting trips and while he was obviously a fine runner and pass catcher (he gained 1,129 yards rushing and caught 33 passes last year for Kentucky), that’s not what Beane came away thinking about.

“He’s a dog, he’s a tough kid. You watch his film, he plays the game violent,” Beane said. “I’ll never forget a play every time I see him, I think it was against Vandy. There’s a backer or safety coming off the edge and he’s in pass pro and he levels this dude. And I remember seeing it in the fall and that was always the first play I thought of with this kid when I saw him.”

The Bills need a running back who can play on third down with the dual skill set of being able to catch the ball, but also to pass protect and that could be Davis’ ticket to rookie playing time. He’ll be competing with Ty Johnson and that will be an interesting battle to watch.

What to expect from the rest of the class

▶ Sedrick Van Pran-Granger: The fifth-round pick was the center for two national championship teams at Georgia in 2021 and 2022, and he was a teammate of Bills’ running back James Cook. With the departure of Mitch Morse, the Bills are in transition at center as Connor McGovern is moving over from left guard.

Depending on how that goes, Van Pran-Granger could get into the mix if he beats out veteran Will Clapp for the backup job, and the McGovern experiment goes poorly enough to where the Bills move him back to his more comfortable left guard position. Or, if Van Pran-Granger can shift to guard, he could become an option if veteran David Edwards flops at left guard.

▶ Javon Solomon: The fifth-round edge rusher led FBS with 16 sacks last season, but he did so playing for Troy in the Sun Belt Conference. At 246 pounds, it’s tough to see him having much impact at the NFL level as a pass rush specialist, certainly in the first year.

▶ Edefuan Ulofoshio: The fifth-round linebacker from national championship runner-up Washington looks like a special teams only player, but his issue is the numbers game. The Bills aren’t likely to have six linebackers active on game days and with Milano, Bernard, Nicholas Morrow, Dorian Williams, and Baylon Spector on the team, Ulofoshio might be ticketed for the practice squad. His best chance would be to beat out Spector, but Spector has a two-year NFL headstart on him.

▶ Tylan Grable: The offensive tackle taken in the sixth round from Central Florida is a longshot. Veteran free agent La’el Collins is not a lock to make the team after sitting out all of 2023, and Ryan Van Demark, Tommy Doyle and Richard Gouriage are just names on the tackle depth chart at this point. Still, Grable’s best chance is to land on the practice squad or perhaps get cut and hook on with a team that needs youthful depth.

▶ Daequan Hardy: The sixth-round cornerback from Penn State played mainly at nickel and the Bills are set there with Taron Johnson plus Cam Lewis in reserve. Now yes, Hardy could beat out Lewis, but that may hinge on whether he can establish himself as the punt returner on the team. If he does that, he’ll have a chance.

▶ Travis Clayton: The Bills used their lone seventh-round pick on the 6-foot-7, 303-pound English rugby player who caught their eye in the NFL’s International Pathway Program. It felt like a wasted pick because while he’s certainly a cool story, he’s never played a down of football in his life.

We’ve been down this road before with running back Christian Wade, another English rugby player who spent two years on the practice squad. At least Clayton won’t count against the Bills’ 90-man training camp roster because he comes from the IPP, and he will be allowed to be the 17th man on the practice squad so I guess an extra body never hurts.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out every other Friday during the offseason, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills draft picks 2024 analysis: How the new players fit with the team