Buy low, sell high.
It’s a pretty simple idea but, of course, extremely difficult to execute.
But with three weeks of data now at our fingertips, there is enough information to make relatively informed decisions while also taking advantage of freak-outs to small sample sizes.
I love trades as much as the next guy but I especially love trades involving big-name players that are scuffling.
The Browns, for example, are tied with the Steelers as the fifth-lowest-scoring team in the NFL. Only the Raiders, Broncos, Jets and Dolphins are doing a worse job scoring points. Not great company to keep.
If only some idiot didn’t tell you to invest heavily in Browns this year.
So with that, let’s talk big-name trade targets.
BAKER AND ODELL
Our pal Matt Harmon wrote about the Browns’ offensive woes here but from a trade standpoint, Baker Mayfield will be the most difficult, if not impossible, to move. The position group is just too deep.
That being said, he’s bench fodder at this point. I wouldn’t drop him but hopefully, you snagged Jacoby Brissett or Kyle Allen or both off waivers.
Odell Beckham Jr. is an interesting one. We know he’s an elite talent but he’s currently playing in a poor, low-scoring offense. Averaging 10 targets and 103 air yards per game, the volume is still really good even if you’d like to see more, especially in the air yards department.
I would make a lukewarm offer for him just to gauge temperature. If the manager is asking for a king’s ransom, move on.
If you’re reading this before Green Bay’s TNF game, go and get Davante Adams. He’s had a slow start to the season, going scoreless through three games, but business is about to pick up starting Thursday night.
The Eagles secondary is flat out awful and both Adams and Rodgers should have a bounce-back performance.
I’m anticipating the production will be strong enough that his price in trades will go up dramatically.
If there is any concern, it’s that the Green Bay offense is a mess right now and that the volume isn’t great. Sitting outside the top 25 in terms of air yards, Adams is averaging seven targets per game. Seven is fine, but it’s not WR1 worthy. Adams isn’t even leading his own team in air yards — that honor belongs to Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Like most of you, I couldn’t get enough of Daniel Jones essentially flipping double birds to all the haters as he went on to somehow score four touchdowns. Know you just got Danny Dimes off the waiver wire, but do what you can to flip him.
According to Next Gen Stats, Jones threw into tight windows (< than 1 yard of separation) on a whopping 25% of his pass attempts, the third-highest percentage in the NFL currently.
If he continues to follow that path, I can assure you: Turnovers will come and most likely in bunches.
The same issues that plagued this offense are still there. There are zero downfield threats and now that Saquon Barkley is out for the foreseeable future, scoring will be a chore.
Jones elevated this unit to mountainous heights in Week 3 but I don’t see that feat being replicated.
Conner posted a minimum of 72% snap share in 11 of the 13 games he played in, this year he’s out there on 55% of the Steelers’ snaps. That, in addition to losing Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger, helps explain how Conner is averaging a woeful 2.9 yards per carry.
This falls in line with what we heard from Steelers brass this offseason that they’d like to use more of a rotation this year.
If you are managing Conner, run him out there this week against Cincy’s subpar defense to raise his value but after that, I’d be more than happy to part ways. Conner is an easily replaceable back in fantasy right now considering his inefficiencies running, his rotational status, and the overall health (or lack thereof) of the Steelers offense.
I’d be buying Gordon all day long. With Antonio Brown off the team, Gordon got to reclaim his spot as the team’s primary outside receiver.
His 11 targets in Week 3 led the team and resulted in 6 receptions for 83 yards. If you take out the one-week AB experiment, Gordon leads the team in air yards and is averaging 7.5 targets and 85.5 air yards per game. That is rock-solid top-20 receiver volume and doesn’t include his exposure to a double-digit touchdown ceiling given the offense.
BUY - DK Metcalf: The rookie currently has 338 air yards, ninth-most in the NFL. His 6.3 targets per game are okay, not great, but obviously given his air yards, DK possesses high ceilings every week and is a perfect flex play in 12-team or deeper leagues.
BUY - Marvin Jones: The window to buy probably already closed considering his massive game against the Eagles (6/101/1), but if someone thinks it was fluky, take advantage. Jones is currently 22nd in total air yards and averaging a very healthy 6.3 targets and 91 air yards per game.
BUY - Curtis Samuel: He’s 12th in air yards and averaging eight targets per game. What else do you want from your WR2/Flex play? I also love what I saw from Kyle Allen, who is himself a trade-for candidate. A healthy Kyle Allen >>> an unhealthy Cam Newton, and that means good things for this Carolina offense.
SELL - Sony Michel: I think we’ve seen the last of Sony Michel as a featured back. For whatever reason Sony just can’t elude tacklers and can’t seem to find any extra yards this year, thus the almost embarrassing 2.4 yards per carry average this season.
After seeing 48% of the snaps in Week 2 and carrying the rock 21 times, Sony hit the skids last week, playing on just 22% of the snaps and seeing just nine carries. With Rex Burkhead emerging I would imagine Michel’s value plummets.
Have a trade question of your own? Hit up James on the Twitter machine @JamesDKoh.