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Big Ten bowl projections: College Football Playoff, New Year's Six predictions after Week 12

gabriela carroll, usa today network
·4 min read
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With one game left in the regular season, the college football bowl picture at the top of the Big Ten is becoming more clear. Michigan and Ohio State will play for the Big Ten East title and a spot in the Big Ten championship game and, likely, the College Football Playoff as well.

Penn State and Iowa both sit at 9-2. The Hawkeyes clinched the Big Ten West and a spot in Indianapolis on Saturday against Illinois. Rutgers and Maryland are also each bowl eligible at 6-5 after suffering losses to Penn State and Michigan, respectively.

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The Big Ten West is where the bowl picture gets murky. Northwestern clinched bowl eligibility with a win over Purdue on Saturday, and Wisconsin did the same with an overtime win over Nebraska.

Three teams are still in the race for bowl eligibility at 5-6, and they all have the opportunity to clinch next week. Nebraska will face Iowa, and a win over the Hawkeyes will clinch their first bowl appearance since 2016. Illinois will face Northwestern with a bowl appearance on the line, and Minnesota can earn bowl eligibility with a win over Wisconsin.

Here are the latest bowl projections for the Big Ten:

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Week 13 college football bowl predictions

All bowl predictions based off Week 12 CFP rankings

College Football Playoff

  • Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Washington

Ultimately, the team that belongs in this spot will be decided on Saturday when Michigan and Ohio State play in Ann Arbor. Ohio State has been ranked higher than the Wolverines in each edition of the College Football Playoff rankings so far, even after Michigan logged its first ranked win against Penn State, so the Buckeyes take the top spot in the Big Ten in these projections (for now).

Florida State has been No. 4 in the playoff rankings each of the past two weeks and No. 3 in these projections the last two weeks. Star quarterback Jordan Travis was carted off the field during the Seminoles' win over North Alabama on Saturday, and Washington picked up another ranked win over No. 11 Oregon State. The Huskies' superior resume, tied in with Travis' injury, gives them the edge in these projections.

New Year’s Six

Michigan squeaked out a 31-24 road win over Maryland to stay undefeated. If the Wolverines fall on Saturday to the Buckeyes, they should still be a safe bet for a New Year's Six bowl. The Orange Bowl takes the highest ranked SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame team, which is likely to be the loser of "The Game" — unless Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC championship game, or Iowa pulls off a massive upset and wins the Big Ten.

Michigan is projected to face Louisville. If Florida State makes the playoff, the Cardinals would be the ACC’s highest-rated non-playoff team, which would earn them the ACC spot in the Orange Bowl.

With 12 spots available for New Year’s Six bowls — one of which goes to the highest-rated Group of Five team, currently No. 23 Tulane — Penn State is on the fringes of that group. But with 14 Power Five teams left with two losses or fewer and four of them set to make the playoff, there should be a spot for the Nittany Lions if they win their final game of the season.

In the Peach Bowl, the Nittany Lions would face Missouri, the third-highest ranked team in the SEC after Georgia and Alabama.

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Remaining bowl projections

The Big Ten has seven bowl tie-ins outside of the New Year’s Six, eight teams who are eligible and three teams with five wins who could clinch bowl eligibility next week.

In this projection, with Ohio State in the playoff and Michigan and Penn State in the New Year's Six, the Big Ten’s highest-ranked team remaining would earn a spot in the Citrus Bowl. Iowa is well ahead of the pack right now, sitting at 9-2 and earning a berth in the Big Ten title game.

Due to contractual tie-ins, the remaining Big Ten bowl games are, in order of selection: Music City Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Guaranteed Rate Bowl and Quick Lane Bowl. The conference gives up its spot in the ReliaQuest Bowl in any season in which one of its members is selected for the Orange Bowl, which Michigan is projected to do in this scenario.

Here’s how the rest of the Big Ten’s teams are projected:

  • Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. LSU

  • Music City Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Texas A&M

  • Las Vegas Bowl: Maryland vs. USC

  • Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Georgia Tech

  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Illinois vs. Kansas

  • Quick Lane Bowl: Northwestern vs. Toledo

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Big Ten bowl projections: College Football Playoff, NY6 after Week 12