Betting: Which underdogs have value in Week 1?
Minty Bets, Pamela Maldonado, and Ariel Epstein break down which underdogs have the most betting value in Week 1 of the NFL season.
Video Transcript
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MINTY BETS: Welcome to Mad Bets, everyone. I am Minty Bets, and the lovely ladies joining me for this video are none other than Pam Maldonado and Ariel Epstein. Guys, the first NFL Sunday of the season is just so close, and I know you guys have your favorite bets. But I want to know which underdogs you guys believe have the best value for the week one slate. Pam, let's start with you. Who do you like to cover here?
PAM MALDONADO: This is an unbiased pick. I am rolling with the Jags, plus 2 and 1/2, plus 115 on the moneyline, at Washington. I have one simple question. Is Carson Wentz the Washington quarterback? Absolutely. Great, that means I'm going to be fading him any which way possible that I can this season. Wentz last year against the Jags, he was sacked six times in that game, threw for one interception.
Now you're looking at Josh Allen the linebacker-- not Josh Allen the quarterback-- he accounted for two of those sacks. And it's going to be him against Carson Wentz. Last year, Carson Wentz, he threw for the sixth-most pressured throws, 28th in pressured completion percentage, 29th in accuracy. Even when he's not pressured, Wentz was still 20th in clean pocket completion percentage.
Now the Washington offensive line has seen some changes, so I just have to think it's Carson Wentz under pressure. That's enough for me to want to back the Jags, especially if you're getting points as an underdog. I definitely trust Doug Pederson more than I do Ron Rivera. Trevor Lawrence, he could definitely be making the second-year quarterback jump. And Washington last year, 29th in passing defense, 28th in opponent yards per pass attempt. So I love Trevor Lawrence, and I love the Jags this week as underdogs.
MINTY BETS: OK, I like that pick. Ariel, what do you have for us?
ARIEL EPSTEIN: I'm taking the points with the Minnesota Vikings as a home dog against their division rivals, the Green Bay Packers. Just dating back to 2016, the Vikings are 4 and 2 straight up and against the spread against Green Bay. Last season, the quarterback for the Vikings, Kirk Cousins, only played one of the games against the Packers. They won the game, Minnesota, 34 to 31. It was a nail-biter, yet Cousins looked great.
He actually plays the Packers better than anybody else. His numbers, Cousins, are the best against the Packers amongst all the other teams he's faced. Looking at the side for the Vikings defense, they did add Za'Darius Smith to the defensive line, which should really help improve their defense from last year. Danielle Hunter should be coming off injury and healthier this season, which helps the defensive line as well.
It's Aaron Rodgers' first week without his number-one wide receiver, Davante Adams. Without Adams, how are the Packers going to adjust their offense? The Packers also said that their wide receiver Allen Lazard is questionable to play this week. He was my pick for filling the shoes for Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers duo. Nervous about what this offense looks like in Green Bay.
More consistency on the Vikings side with their offense. Give me the points, plus 1 and 1/2, with the Minnesota Vikings. Line's already moved in my favor, plus 2 and 1/2 to plus 1 and 1/2.
MINTY BETS: OK, guys, I'm going with the Pittsburgh Steelers plus 6 and 1/2 over the Cincinnati Bengals. I also like the Steelers to win straight up here at plus 220. Now this is a different-looking Steelers team than we're used to seeing, but let's not forget that Mike Tomlin has not had a losing season as a head coach in the NFL. Now this offense is going to be a little inconsistent, a little shaky at first, but this defense is what's going to make the difference here.
They are going to at least keep this game close. Now the Steelers defense recorded the most sacks last season. And guess which team allowed some of the most QB sacks. Yeah, the Bengals. I think Joey B. is going to get lit up here, so I like the Steelers to cover and win.
To recap our picks, Pam is going with the Jaguars to cover, Ariel's going with the Vikings to cover, and I am going with the Steelers to cover and win. Bet $10 and win $2 for every point scored in Thursday's season opener. Must be 21 or older. Terms apply.
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