PGA betting: Why Daniel Berger is worth a fade at RBC Heritage

The PGA moves on from Augusta to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage event at Harbour Town Golf Links. A Pete Dye design, there are plenty of overhanging trees lining the fairways along with purposely placed bunkers. For what could be a less-than-driver course, this event awards good iron play. Being able to stripe the ball is one thing but hitting your shots with pinpoint accuracy is another.

Here’s one head-to-head for this week.

Russell Henley (-120) vs Daniel Berger

There’s an argument to be made for both fading Berger and for also giving him the benefit of the doubt. Since his fourth-place finish in the Honda Classic, Berger has lost two, six and five strokes in ball striking both off the tee and more so on his approach. He’s lost strokes in nearly every category, losing nine and eight strokes total in his last two events. The benefit-of-the-doubt part? His last three events were the weather-wrecked Players, Match Play and Masters. Still, losing strokes both off the tee and with your irons in three straight is exactly something that can be rectified from one tournament to the next.

Even if Berger improves, Henley is also a solid contender to win here. Henley’s strengths match up nicely for RBC Heritage. In the field, Henley is third in SG Approach on courses less than 7,200 yards, fifth in SG Approach in the last 32 rounds and fifth in SG Total over that same time.

Berger may have the upper hand with course history but it’s unfortunate timing that he’s coming into this with no momentum. I’ll back Henley with the consistent iron and short game play.