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PGA betting: Two head-to-head matches for The American Express

·Betting analyst
·2 min read
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This week’s American Express PGA event in California offers a unique format with three separate courses in four days. The three courses are PGA West (Stadium Course), La Quinta Country Club, and PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course), all of which are par 72 and over 7,000 yards with different levels of difficulty.

With only one course offering strokes gained data and no true sense of course history, I’m targeting the players with solid recent form and a complete game with an emphasis on ball striking. On three separate greens, the putter can come and go but a good iron player can provide consistency.

These are the two full tournament head-to-head matchups I like for The American Express.

Seamus Power (-115) vs. Abraham Ancer

Power has a lot of rounds in the new season with two missed cuts in eight events. The other six tournaments, Power finished T21 or better in all six, gaining strokes with is ball-striking in three straight events and leading to a T4, T15, and T3 finish in last week’s Sony Open in Hawaii. Ancer was stellar last season but that hasn’t translated into the new year. In back-to-back events in 2022, Ancer has finished T35 and missed the cut at the Sony Open. He has lost strokes around the green and putting in three of his last four events, and has lost strokes ball-striking in two. In his last six events, Ancer has lost strokes in four, including losing nearly nine strokes at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

HONOLULU, HAWAII - JANUARY 16: Seamus Power of Ireland reacts on the sixth hole during the final round of the Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club on January 16, 2022 in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)
Ireland's Seamus Power is a solid bet in this week's PGA event. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)

Ancer does have a good history at The American Express, finishing in second place in 2020 and T5 last year, but his recent form doesn’t instill confidence in replicating that success. I’ll back the player that is on the rise versus one that is taking a nosedive.

Seamus Power (-120) vs. Cameron Tringale

Statistically, Tringale is on a bit of a good run with a T2 and T7 in two of his last three events. However, the T2 was in October, the T7 was at a light-field event, and in between he had a missed cut. Prior to that, Tringale had lost strokes ball-striking in four of his last six events. He could certainly show up here, however, I’m sticking with backing the player that has put in a lot of recent reps and has gained nearly 10 and 11 strokes total in two of his last three events. In case you’re not sure, gaining that many strokes is a very good thing.

Last week it worked fading a single player in both matchups. This week, I’ll back one player to perform well at the start of the California swing.