Betting: Michigan vs Florida State Preview

Andy Behrens, Pete Thamel, and Preston Johnson break down the upcoming Sweet 16 matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the Florida State Seminoles.

Video Transcript

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ANDY BEHRENS: Let's turn to the East Region, where the Big Ten's lone representative-- lone representative, nine schools in, one makes it to the Sweet 16. Michigan is located here. They were the Big Ten team with the biggest question mark, I feel like, entering the tournament, right? Isaiah Livers' injury. But they beat a very talented LSU roster, that was a fun game. Strangely officiated, fun game.

Michigan is a 3-point favorite over Florida State. Correct me if I'm wrong, I think both of you are on Florida State. I know Krysten Peek was. They're a deep team, well-coached. Pete, take this wherever you want to go.

PETE THAMEL: For the record, I was on the Ducks, too. I have them in the Elite Eight, so I don't have the gear, maybe. You know, maybe I'm not on Phil Knight's Christmas card list. Maybe I could have--

ANDY BEHRENS: They're not playing with the Ducks today, it doesn't count.

PETE THAMEL: Send some notes to Coach Cristobal or something to see if I can get back in good Duck favor. But I have Florida State going to the Final Four. And I feel like, again, to use maybe the JV-varsity, like, Florida State is varsity LSU. They have as much talent, they're better coached, they're better put together. We saw how LSU stunned and controlled parts of the game against Michigan. Couldn't finish the job, and give Juwan Howard a lot of credit.

ANDY BEHRENS: And give Michigan a lot of credit.

PETE THAMEL: I feel like there was enough match-up problems here, enough depth here, and I feel like Leonard Hamilton is a little bit of that, like, fated coach who is about to have his Final Four moment. So I am staying all in on the Seminoles, as you'd expect me to do. And if I can get three extra points along the way, I'll take them.

ANDY BEHRENS: Preston, honestly, I hardly know what to make of FSU, because I've seen them have some lousy games and I've seen them have some spectacular games. They seem to be a wide range of outcome team to me. Where are you on this one?

PRESTON JOHNSON: They're a super high-variance team. Like, in the past, some of these teams for Florida State have been very defensive-minded and centered, and their offense never really could put them over the hump. Now it's kind of reversed to where they're explosive offensively. And you saw it, I believe, middle of that second half against Colorado. Colorado cut it to 1, and then the Seminoles, I think, reeled off 15 straight and it turned into a blowout those final eight to 10 minutes.

I don't know. With Livers out, I still-- and I was with you guys. I think I had Florida State and 'Bama in the Elite Eight. I have Bama coming out of the region still. But I think Florida State just has too many weapons for Michigan to hang scoring-wise, which we saw. And I like the comparison of, you know, kind of varsity LSU. LSU, until, again, similar time-frame, mid-second half, Michigan goes on that 16-to-2 run or whatever it was to take the lead and ultimately pull away.

I like Florida State. My numbers, my projections, just straight data. This is with Livers out for Michigan. I think Michigan should be about a 1.7 point favorite. So if this is 1 and 1/2 or 2, I think that's closer to fair. It was 3 and 1/2, it's still three across the board. I think Florida State, taking the three points in a game that is closer to 50-50, I'm with Pete. I got to go with the Seminoles.