Betting: Will Jaguars cover -6.5 vs. Titans in must-win matchup?
Minty Bets is joined by Pam Maldonado and Mark Drumheller to give their best bets for the "must-win" NFL matchups between the Titans and Jaguars, and the Lions and Packers.
Video Transcript
MINTY BETS: It is the final weekend of the NFL regular season, and I could cry. I'm Minty Bets joined by Pam Maldonado and Mark Drumheller, and we've got two must-win games this weekend in prime time.
Starting on Saturday, we've got the AFC South as the Jaguars hosts the Titans, and on Sunday for the NFC North we've got the Packers hosting the Lions. I'm going to start with Pam first with the AFC South because, Pam, I know you're a Jags fan, but laying 6 and 1/2 points doesn't really seem like your style. So I'm really curious to see who you're going with in this game.
PAM MALDONADO: I'm not only a Jags fan but I will be at this game, so I am extra excited for this. Give me the Jags minus 6 and 1/2 at home to the Titans. The winner claims the AFC South and a home playoff game next weekend.
The Jags can still technically get into the postseason with a loss, but they would need the Steelers, the Patriots, and the Dolphins all to lose. And the Titans? The only way for them to get into the postseason is with a win here.
But the Jags' quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, and the offense has been on fire as of late. They're scoring at least 31 points in three of their last four games. In those games, Lawrence is averaging 72% completion, has seven touchdowns, and this season is a top-10 passer in the league for passing yards.
Now, it's not just the passing game. It's also the run game. The running backs for the Jags are averaging 160 yards in the last two games. This offense is just absolutely humming from all directions.
Now, the Titans rested everybody under the sun in week 17. That could work in one of both ways. It could either come out fresh, or I'm kind of hoping that they come out rusty and not in rhythm because the Titans defense, they're absolutely solid against the run, second best in the league, but they are dead last against the pass, 32nd. Now against top-10 offenses, they allowed 27 points and nearly 300 passing yards to the Cowboys quarterback in Dak Prescott just last week. They allowed 36 points and 368 passing yards to the Jags back in week 14, and before that, the Titans allowed 35 points and 380 passing yards to the Eagles and Jalen Hurts.
Titans running back Derrick Henry, he can run all he wants to, but it's going to be Trevor Lawrence and company that are going to shred this defense apart. Give me the Jags minus 6 and 1/2 and, as a bonus, over 39 because the Jags can cover that all on their own. Go Jags.
MINTY BETS: All right, heading to the NFC North with Mark. Now, the Packers have not been in this tricky of a spot for a shot at the playoffs for as long as I can remember because they usually dominate this division. So, Mark, are you taking the points with the Lions, or do you believe in the Packers here?
MARK DRUMHELLER: I'm going to back the underdog here. Detroit has covered in eight of the last nine. If there's one thing you can depend on, it's this team is going to fight to the end regardless.
Jared Goff has historically struggled in cold weather. He only has six touchdowns this season on the road. But as long as he can hand the ball off, I like Detroit in this match-up. The Packers defense is 31st in rush DVOA, and Detroit is 4 and 0 versus teams in the bottom five of that metric. That includes a win against these Packers and also a 13-point win on the road against the Giants.
This game screams last-second field goal to me. I'm going to try and get to the window one last time with Dan Campbell. Give me Detroit plus the 4 and 1/2.
MINTY BETS: To recap this weekend's must-win games, on Saturday Pam likes the Jags to cover, and on Sunday Mark has the Lions to cover.
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