Best NFL bets of the weekend
Pam Maldonado and Frank Schwab take you through their favorite wagers ahead of the Week 11 NFL slate. Can the Cowboys top the favored Chiefs?
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Video Transcript
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FRANK SCHWAB: Welcome to "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It is Friday, November 19th, 2021. And I am your betting guide Frank Schwab, joined by Pamela Maldonado, here to give you our favorite bets from the week 11 NFL slate.
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Should be a good one, Pam. What is your best play for week 11?
PAM MALDONADO: I am looking to the under on 44 for the Saints at the Eagles. The Philadelphia run game, it is looking hella good over the last three weeks with 427 rushing yards, six ground scores, but that's against defenses that are ranked 29th, 32nd, and 23rd in DVOA against the run. New Orleans is number one best against the run, ahead of even Tampa Bay.
I don't expect the Eagles to have much of a ground game success, but I do expect the Eagles to still try. With one of the best offensive lines, Philadelphia has established its identity as a run-first team. Ground and pound is the game they want to roll with, and ground and pound is what they are going to attempt with not much success. Running the ball and 64% of their plays outside of fourth quarter, the highest rate in the league.
Plus, if you do play an under, then you're expecting no scoring, and that's exactly what the Saints can provide you. Saints this season, 27th in first quarter points, averaging just 2.7 points per game in nine games played this season. The Saints have scored 3 points or zero in six in the first quarter. No points definitely helps taking unders. I like the under 44 for the Saints at the Eagles.
FRANK SCHWAB: I like that too. I can't figure out either side here, so I might as well do a total, right? It makes perfect sense to me. The Saints just-- offensively, they're so challenged. And with Trevor Siemian guiding the show, you're not gonna get many quick-strike touchdowns. You're absolutely right about that matchup with the Eagles all of a sudden becoming a running team. They didn't want to run the ball at all five, six weeks ago, and now they want to run it every down. So I agree that that's gonna get shut down. The under does look pretty good here. And like I said, I can't figure out either side, so maybe the total is the way to go.
PAM MALDONADO: What are you thinking for your best bet for this week?
FRANK SCHWAB: I'm gonna go with the Minnesota Vikings plus 1 and 1/2 against Green Bay, and I might as well just make it a moneyline at this point. This spread has moved down from 2 and 1/2 to 1 and 1/2, which disappoints me. Because I thought it might go the other way just because the Packers are such a public team. And I don't think your casual fan realizes that the Vikings are this year's good bad team, as Charles Robinson pointed out on our podcast a couple of weeks ago. I'm gonna be looking to get value on the Vikings whenever I can.
I just think that this is a team that-- and I know I've talked about this. It's trite. It's cliche. You could say that of a lot of teams. But this team could be 9 and 0. All you need to do is a couple of plays in their losses. They've been in every single game. Should have won at Arizona. There's been a couple of other games that they really could have won. And if you're talking about a 7 and 2 Vikings team, I think they're favored in this game. I think that this is a good team.
Like I said, I'm gonna be trying to get value on them. I do think that they could get some things going with Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook. I just think that this team is ready to go in and get a big win against Green Bay. They're not gonna catch Green Bay in the division this year, but I think that that's gonna be the statement game that says the Vikings are in this wildcard race. And they might be a difficult out in the playoffs too. So give me the Vikings moneyline. I really like them in this spot.
PAM MALDONADO: Dalvin Cook against the Packers last season, 163 rushing yards, three ground scores, plus a receiving touchdown. Can he replicate that same success this weekend? We're gonna find out.
FRANK SCHWAB: Yeah, absolutely. I hope so, anyway. So what's your next best play, Pam?
PAM MALDONADO: Something that we are both in agreement with. And I am taking them Boys plus 2 and 1/2 at the Kansas City Chiefs. What happens with the Chiefs? They cover one game, and all of a sudden people are just touting that they are back. But the Raiders' off-the-field issues definitely affected their performance, and it showed in last week's loss to the Chiefs.
Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, I trust him. I think he is a great offensive coordinator. He is a smart play caller. I believe that Kellen Moore is going to utilize the ground game, using running backs Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard to keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands just in case the Chiefs are, in fact, back. But the Chiefs, they're 0 and 5 against the spread this season at home, 0 and 9 against the spread in their past nine home games in the regular season, still 27th in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt, 24th in yards allowed per completion, 24th in touchdown rate.
This is still a bad defense, even if Mahomes is still on fire. But who's been the more consistent team? Dallas. Who has the better defense? Dallas. The Chiefs still 31st in the league for turnovers. The Cowboys, fourth best in takeaways. I like them Boys on the moneyline as well plus 120.
FRANK SCHWAB: I couldn't have said it better. This is my second play too. I didn't get this line. Why are people so quick to anoint the Chiefs great again? It was one game against a really emotionally spent Raiders team, but everybody all week has just been, oh my God, the Chiefs are back. Mahomes is gonna be-- they could be. The defense has played better. I'll give them credit for that. But it's one game. That doesn't erase the mediocrity before that.
And if you take the first 10 weeks of this season, nobody could argue the Chiefs have been the better team than the Cowboys. Nobody at all. And the Cowboys did have the one bad game against Denver, but I think they showed last week that was just a flat spot, an anomaly. Came out and absolutely pummeled the Falcons. I think this is a very, very good Cowboys team. If the Cowboys were favored by 2 and 1/2, I'd understand it. I'd say, yeah, they're the better team.
Chiefs aren't covering at home, as you pointed out. They have not been consistent. How is the defense gonna stop this Cowboys offense? But when I saw the line, I said Chiefs minus 2 and 1/2, we're just totally buying back in on the Chiefs. We're not even gonna stop and wait. We're just gonna be like, oh yeah, Chiefs are good. They have nothing to worry about anymore. I don't get that at all.
I love the Cowboys in this spot. I'll be on the moneyline too. I just don't-- again, you pointed it out a lot better than I could, but I will echo your thoughts of why. Why are the Chiefs all of a sudden just back? And, look, if they go out and handle business, if they go out and win this game by 10, all right--
PAM MALDONADO: Kudos to them.
FRANK SCHWAB: --then the Chiefs are back. Yeah, then the Chiefs are back, and I'll tip my cap. But right now, you're giving me 2 and 1/2 points with a team that's been one of the best in the NFL. Been far better than the team I'm betting against. I just have to take that. And, look, if the Chiefs win, I will. I'll tip my cap. But right now, the Cowboys are just screaming value. Easily the better spot here.
PAM MALDONADO: And plus what we've seen with Patrick Mahomes this season that we haven't seen in seasons prior is he's forcing situations where none exist. He's throwing the ball, looking for those deep passes instead of doing the dink and dunk. The Cowboys, they have a lot of weapons that they can utilize in both the running back-- they're using the running backs as passing backs. They're using their tight end. They're using fullbacks. They have wide range of options. If you put Chiefs in a play-from-behind situation, that's where some of those turnovers can be generated. I love the Cowboys. Give me the moneyline.
FRANK SCHWAB: Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, I don't-- if there's an offense out there that's just gonna torch the Chiefs, we're gonna look up and they're gonna have 38 points on the board, it's the Cowboys. Because like you said, they can come at you so many different ways. They can decide, oh, you're gonna give us the run? Yeah, we'll take five yards a pop with Zeke and Tony Pollard. No doubt about it. Oh, you're gonna give us a tight end? Dalton Schultz, he'll have a big game.
PAM MALDONADO: Exactly.
FRANK SCHWAB: Oh, why don't we just sprinkle in CeeDee Lamb? Of if you're gonna double CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper's right there. I don't know how you stop this offense, and I definitely don't think the Chiefs can. Let's recap what we got. We have the Saints under 44 against the Eagles. I agree with that one just because these teams are gonna be weird. This is gonna be a rock fight, I think. I had the Vikings.
And me and Pam both agree the Cowboys are screaming value here. Plus 2 and 1/2, moneyline, whatever you got on the Cowboys, take it. Because you are actually getting the better team as an underdog here. And we're both not ready to proclaim the Chiefs all the way back quite yet. You can follow me over on Twitter @YahooSchwab, Pam is at @PamelaM35, and you can follow all of our content over @YahooSportsbook. I'll be back on Monday to host the next episode of "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." Until then, good bye and good luck.
