Behind the Numbers: Digging into a fourth straight loss for the Packers
The Green Bay Packers dropped their fourth straight game, this time to the Buffalo Bills in a contest that played out pretty much as expected. The Packers’ underperforming defense was outmatched by a superior offense, while offensively, Green Bay again struggled to put points on the board for much of the game.
Now that I’ve had the opportunity to rewatch and reflect on this game, here are the numbers that you need to know about from the Packers’ performance.
30
Featuring Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should have been a part of the Packers’ game plan for the entire season, but that hasn’t always been the case. Just last week against Washington, Green Bay ran the ball only 12 times. Against the Bills, however, Jones and Dillon had 30 carries for 197 yards, despite trailing for the entire game. Far too often, we’ve seen the Packers abandon the run game and become one-dimensional. This is a Bills defense that primarily rushes just four and plays with light boxes, so moving the ball on the ground was going to be the Packers’ best path to success on offense.
398 to 369
The Packers managed to outgain the Bills 398 yards to 369. They also had more first downs and controlled the time of possession. However, Green Bay still lost by two scores. While I do believe there is a silver lining in seeing Green Bay stick with the run, as that has to be a big part of their offensive identity, they can’t win games solely on the ground–or at least not against really good teams. The passing game, specifically downfield throws, still has to be an element for this offense to lean on.
30-1
Sunday in Buffalo was the first time that the Packers had won the turnover battle all season long. It was also the first time that they lost a game under Matt LaFleur in which they had won the turnover battle. The interceptions by Josh Allen allowed Green Bay to keep the game relatively close, but the lead was never truly in jeopardy. Continuing to win the turnover battle will be important as it will provide a struggling offense with more opportunities to score.
111
The Packers need to be able to push the ball downfield, and each of their three rookie wide receivers can provide that juice. Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Samori Toure combined for 111 receiving yards on Sunday and two touchdowns. But perhaps even more encouraging than the stat line was that Doubs made two contested catches on throws that required some trust from Aaron Rodgers. Meanwhile, Toure made a route adjustment based on how he was being defended, and Rodgers connected with him. It’s a simple concept, but this is also something Rodgers has been longing for from his young receivers this season. All three of those receptions just described are how these rookies are going to continue to build trust with Rodgers. However, to a degree, that trust needs to take a back seat at 3-5, with each of the rookies playing larger roles in the passing game, given their big play abilities.
8
Regardless of whether or not you agree with some of the calls, penalties were a major issue for the Packers again. In total, they were flagged eight times for 58 yards, one week after being called for nine penalties against Washington. It’s not only the penalties that are hurting this team but also when they are occurring. LaFleur said after the game that not only against Buffalo but for the entire season, Green Bay has been flagged at some inopportune times, either killing their own momentum or extending drives for the opponent. The margin for error for this team is too small right now for them to overcome this many penalties.
49
The Packers totaled 20 pressures against Buffalo, an impressive number, one week after recording 29 against Washington. That’s a whopping 49 pressures in the last two weeks; however, they’ve generated just three sacks. If you ask LaFleur, he would rather see consistent pressures over sporadic sacks, but at some point, Green Bay has to be better at converting these opportunities. Against mobile quarterbacks like Taylor Heinicke and Josh Allen, defined rush lanes are important because both had avenues to get away from the pressure, which led to some big plays.
5
At one point, the Buffalo offense put together five straight scoring drives, which pretty much took away any hope that the Packers had of winning this game. Ultimately, the defense’s inconsistent play this season falls on the play caller and coach, Joe Barry, but the players also have to be performing at a much higher level as well. We saw Eric Stokes get briefly benched at one point, there were 16 missed tackles, which has been a major issue all season, along with poor run fits by the front seven, and Quay Walker got ejected. Stokes, Rasul Douglas, Adrian Amos, Dean Lowry, and De’Vondre Campbell are all players who have seen their play fall off somewhat drastically from a season ago.
85
Stefon Diggs finished the game with six receptions for 108 yards, including 85 yards and a touchdown while matched up with Rasul Douglas. After Jaire Alexander had traveled the previous two weeks with the opponent’s top receiver, that wasn’t the case in Buffalo. On Monday, Matt LaFleur mentioned that the reason behind this was that Green Bay didn’t want to sit in man coverage with the secondary’s backs to Josh Allen, whose mobility can hurt teams. This sounds great, but it’s not as if the Packers stopped Allen from running, who was able to extend a few drives and totaled almost 50 yards on the ground. On top of that, Diggs had a big day as well—so they didn’t end up stopping either player. I do wonder if Walker hadn’t been ejected, if the Packers would have utilized him as a quarterback spy, or if this was going to be the game plan regardless.
2.63
Last week behind a makeshift offensive line, LaFleur very much made sure that group was protected and it limited the offense and playbook. They only ran the ball 12 times, tight ends were asked to chip often, and Rodgers got the ball out at the quickest rate of the season. This week, however, and even without Elgton Jenkins, there was more trust in the big men. Green Bay ran the ball 30 times and averaged 6.7 yards per rush, the offensive line allowed only six pressures, and that was with Rodgers holding the ball for 2.63 seconds—his second longest rate this season. For the offense to improve, the offensive line has to consistently play better, but LaFleur has to provide them the ability to do so as well.
