Bears shouldn’t get a second chance at Texans QB Deshaun Watson

On April 27, 2017, after watching the Cleveland Brown select Myles Garrett No. 1 overall, the Chicago Bears made a bold move that would define the next five years of their franchise. The Bears traded their third and fourth round selections to San Francisco, letting them move up to the first overall pick and giving them their “pick of lot” on the 2017 quarterback class.

The star-studded class included Patrick Mahomes, an All-Pro who played in his second straight Super Bowl this past Sunday, and the Houston Texans’ own Deshaun Watson, who led the NFL in passing this past season.

Unfortunately for the Bears, their scouting department led them to conclude that Mitch Trubisky, a one-year starter for North Carolina, was their guy at second overall.

In the past four seasons Trubisky, despite multiple playoff appearances, has certainly proved to Chicago he isn’t their guy moving forward. Even with above average defenses and studs at wideout like Allen Robinson, Trubisky has failed to keep them competitive once the team reaches the post-season. Last offseason the team voiced their displeasure by deciding to turn down the fifth-year option and now it is widely regarded that the team will move forward.

Ironically, rumors now speculate that Deshaun Watson, disgruntled with Jack Easterby and the dysfunctional management for Houston, is a candidate to solve their quarterback woes. The Chicago media has gone out of their way to court Watson, with fans speculating when he followed two Chicago weatherman and fans working together recently to donate to Watson’s charity.

Houston must consider all offers when deciding what to do with their stud quarterback, especially if the decision reached is a trade. However, the Bears are not an ideal candidate for the Texans to trade with.

To begin, the Texans are supposedly looking for two firsts, two seconds, and two defensive players in any trade package according to John McClain. Many other analysts are adamant that the discussion around Watson will start at three first rounders. If the Texans are to trade Watson, the goals are relatively simple. They need to assemble draft capital, figure out the next quarterback, and help the roster or salary cap situation. When looking at Chicago, that framework becomes troubling for executing a deal.

In terms of draft compensation, the Bears could offer the 20th overall selection in this April’s draft with two additional firsts in 2022 and 2023. That number could go to four firsts hypothetically if a deal was executed on draft day, however that would certainly be unprecedented. This is all before considering what level of day two compensation Chicago would be willing to include in a package for Waston. Assumably, with general manager Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy on the hot seat, the Bears would be willing to throw everything at a Watson trade to save their jobs.

Is a package of firsts that starts at 20th and is likely never below 20th appealing to Houston? This isn’t a top ten selection from the likes of Miami or Carolina that can quickly provide a new solution under center. These level of picks likely ensure that Houston will not be able to find a starting quarterback until the 2022 NFL draft, after what one imagines would be a pathetic 2021 campaign.

First-round picks are incredibly valuable, even in the lower portions of the round. However, are they OK to throw away a season to wait for the next quarterback after trading the fan’s favorite player?

Something tells me even that isn’t appealing even to someone with Easterby’s level of job security.

Next, Houston has been adamant on the importance of players they’d get back in a Watson trade. This part may actually be the biggest stinger for Chicago, as the Bears’ assets do not necessarily lineup with the future need of the Texans.

Many mention the idea of including Khalil Mack in a Watson trade. Would Houston want to absorb the bloated contract of a $27 million pass-rusher for a team that is about to tank? Mack’s deal is expensive and he is close to the wrong side of 30 at 29 years old. This is only two years younger than franchise star J.J. Watt, who many argue doesn’t fit with the Texans plans because of his age. This doesn’t seem like a logical inclusion.

Other mock drafts include corner Kyle Fuller, who is certainly an above average corner and would boost the Houston secondary. That probably isn’t enough for a team that is looking for “two young defensive starters.” Would Chicago be willing to include star inside linebacker Roquan Smith? Smith is coming off a phenomenal, 139-tackle campaign and is debatably the most important player for Chicago’s defense with 18 tackles for loss.

The only other players under 27 with 20-plus tackles are safety Eddie Jackson, CB Jaylon Johnson and NT Bilal Nichols. Jackson is a former All-Pro and considered elite at his position while the other two are unproven commodities.

What defensive starters could Chicago sell Caserio on while already having to offer more in draft compensation due to the position of their 2021 selection? The difficulty satisfying the ‘young defensive starter’ criteria is a big question for Pace in putting together an adequate package.

As always, money must be looked at.

The Bears are in salary cap hell entering the 2021 season, not dissimilar to the Houston Texans. They are a projected $10 million under the cap, which means moves would certainly have to be made before absorbing Watson’s contract. Watson is projected to count around $11 million against the cap in 2021 before ballooning to over $30M in 2022.

Cutting Akiem Hicks ($11 million) or Fuller (salary savings at $11 million) would start making this roster look far more capable of absorbing a player with a $400 million price tag like Deshaun Watson.

Finally, would Watson want any part of Chicago?

They are a team that passed on him in 2017 with an entire off-season knowing they’d most likely select the first quarterback. The Bears are in a division that includes Aaron Rodgers and a conference that still has the reigning Super Bowl champion Buccaneers looming large. Robinson has seemingly noted his desire to leave and chase a ring.

Getting away from Easterby is always going to be a win for Watson. However, is Chicago the right situation to waive the no-trade clause for? That’s debatable.

Ultimately, the questions over draft compensation, lack of young defensive starters, and an unclear quarterback succession plan make Chicago a less-than-likely destination for Watson compared to suitors such as Miami or New York.

Sorry Chicago, Madden may be your best choice at seeing D4 on the roster.