Has Baker Mayfield finally found a home, or did the Bucs whiff again?
TAMPA — In theory, this was the perfect move. The team’s salary cap was overdrawn, and the quarterback’s resume was underwhelming. It was as if Baker Mayfield and the Bucs were destined to find each other in that gray area between hope and desperation.
But now that he’s here, now that he’s beaten out Kyle Trask, now that Todd Bowles has gambled his future on Mayfield, there is one large question that remains to be answered:
Does this ever work?
Has a quarterback taken near the top of the draft ever turned his career around after a sour divorce in his first NFL stop?
The good news? Yes! The qualifier? Only if you sort of squint.
There have been top picks that have gone on to long and lucrative careers with new teams, but they rarely live up to the hype of their draft status. Vinny Testaverde, for instance, escaped Tampa Bay after six mostly unsatisfying seasons and went on to become the No. 6 passer on the all-time yardage list when he retired. But does anybody really consider Testaverde a great quarterback?
In other words, a team can find success with a reformed phenom but it usually helps to adjust your expectations. Mayfield is no longer a sensation, no longer a sought-after star of prime-time TV commercials, but he doesn’t really need to be in Tampa Bay. The Bucs, presumably, would be happy if Mayfield turns out to be a solid quarterback capable of taking the team to the postseason.
His stats say it’s possible while history says it’s doubtful. Considering the Bucs acquired him in free agency for a $4 million salary that’s not even in the top 32 of NFL quarterbacks in 2023, you can surmise how much faith other owners and general managers had in Mayfield’s potential.
But here’s the thing:
Mayfield’s stats in Cleveland were not that bad. If you compare his first 60 games in the NFL, he had a higher passer rating (86.7) than Peyton Manning (84.8), more touchdowns (92) than Tom Brady (88) and more yards (14,125) than Matt Ryan (13,759). He even won a playoff game in his first four seasons, which is more than Manning or Ryan could say.
The point is, Mayfield did not bomb in Cleveland. He threw too many interceptions and seemed to annoy some people, but he was nowhere near a Tim Couch or JaMarcus Russell-type of bust.
(There are three quarterbacks taken No. 1 who went on to win the Super Bowl with other teams that don’t really fit this conversation. John Elway and Eli Manning forced trades before ever playing for their original team, and Matthew Stafford spent 12 quality seasons in Detroit before winning with the Rams.)
With all of that in mind, here’s a look at some of the second-chance (or third- or fourth-) results for quarterbacks taken near the top of the draft, from some of the worst to some of the best:
Ryan Leaf, No. 2 pick in 1998, San Diego
Once considered a contemporary of Peyton Manning when they entered the 1998 draft, Leaf wore out his welcome in San Diego in spectacular fashion. He threw 33 interceptions to 13 touchdowns while getting a reputation for being lazy and irresponsible. The Bucs signed him to a free-agent deal in 2001, but Leaf quit rather than having his base salary reduced from $900,000 to $700,000 when he fell to No. 4 on the depth chart. He signed with Dallas, where he went 0-3 as a starter and never played another regular-season snap.
David Carr, No. 1 pick in 2002, Houston
Carr had the unfortunate luck of being drafted by an expansion team, and he paid the price by leading the league in sacks in three of his first four seasons. He stuck around Houston for five years before being released and signing a two-year deal with Carolina. He went 1-3 as a starter for the Panthers, got hurt, released and bounced around the NFL for another four years without ever starting a game.
Jameis Winston/Marcus Mariota, Nos. 1 and 2 in 2015, Tampa Bay and Tennessee
They were linked in the 2015 draft, and have remained somewhat entwined in the NFL. Mariota was 29-32 in Tennessee with an 89.6 rating. Winston was 28-42 in Tampa Bay with an 86.9 rating. Winston has had flashes of success in New Orleans and Mariota was briefly a starter in Atlanta, but both seem destined to play journeyman backup roles in the NFL.
Jeff George, No. 1 pick in 1990, Indianapolis
George, like Mayfield, had some initial success in the NFL. Enough so that the Colts were able to get two first-round picks and a third-round pick when they flipped him to Atlanta four years later. George took the Falcons to the playoffs in his second season as a starter, but ended up with a pretty pedestrian career. He played for five teams and had a 46-78 record as a starter.
Sam Bradford, No. 1 pick in 2010, St. Louis
He was the offensive Rookie of the Year in 2010 and that somehow enticed several other teams even after St. Louis gave up on him. Bradford was traded to Philadelphia for Nick Foles and a second-round pick in 2015, traded to Minnesota for a first-round pick in 2016 and then got a two-year deal in Arizona with $15 million guaranteed in 2018. For all that, he never played in a postseason game.
Jim Plunkett, No. 1 pick in 1971, New England
Too many interceptions and too many losses in New England convinced the Patriots to turn to Steve Grogan when Plunkett got hurt. They shopped him around and somehow got San Francisco to give up three first-round picks and one second-round pick, which the 49ers almost immediately regretted. He was released two years later. Signed by Oakland as a backup in 1979, Plunkett became the rare No. 1 pick to excel elsewhere. He won two Super Bowls with the Raiders and went 8-2 in four playoff appearances.
Steve Young, No. 1 pick in 1984, Tampa Bay
This is cheating just a little because Young was the No. 1 pick in the supplemental draft after the USFL went belly up. He was 3-16 in his first two seasons with the Bucs and then got squeezed out when Vinny Testaverde was drafted No. 1 in 1987. Young was dealt to San Francisco for second- and fourth-round picks by Tampa Bay. You probably know the rest of the story. Young spent four years as Joe Montana’s understudy before winning a Super Bowl of his own and, eventually, getting elected to the Hall of Fame.
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