Auburn basketball vs. Tennessee: Score prediction for game with 'championship implications'
AUBURN — The door is ajar.
Auburn basketball suffered a hit to its SEC regular-season title hopes when it fell at home to Kentucky on Feb. 17, and matters were made worse when Jaylin Williams went down with an injury to his right knee. The Tigers sat two games back from the top of the conference standings without much time remaining to close the gap.
But then the Wildcats laid the smackdown on Alabama on Saturday while Auburn left Georgia with a victory, and the Tigers suddenly find themselves one game back of the conference's leaders — the Crimson Tide and Tennessee — with four contests remaining. Catching Alabama will take some help, but Auburn (21-6, 10-4 SEC) can pull even with the Vols by beating them in Thompson-Boiling Arena on Wednesday (6 p.m. CT, ESPN2).
"Tennessee is next, and it's got a lot of championship implications," coach Bruce Pearl said after his Tigers topped the Bulldogs.
Here's a scouting report on the Vols (21-6, 11-3), as well as a prediction for how this one will play out.
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Auburn basketball: Good luck containing Dalton Knecht
The conversation about Tennessee begins with Dalton Knecht, the former Northern Colorado Bear who's transformed himself from a mid-major standout into a potential lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Knecht averages 20.1 points on 47.7% shooting, and few players in the conference have been able to couple volume and efficiency from 3-point range like him; he's taking 5.5 triples per game and hitting them at a 40.3% rate.
Tennessee's offense runs through Knecht, as he has a usage rate of 30.7%, per College Basketball Analytics. Only four other players in the SEC have a mark above 30% — Texas A&M's Wade Taylor IV (31.7%), LSU's Jalen Cook (30.8%), Mississippi State's Tolu Smith (30.3%) and South Carolina's BJ Mack (30.1%). Auburn's Johni Broome is narrowly behind at 29.8%.
Tennessee is on another level at home
Auburn's matchup with Tennessee is its stiffest regular-season test left, and the numbers back that up.
The Vols have a net rating of +32.7 at home. That's a stat that measures a team's point differential per 100 possessions. Alabama is also +32.7 at home, and the Tigers are +28.4 in Neville Arena.
Tennessee, when playing in Knoxville, averages an SEC-high 20.5 assists per game. The Vols also pace the conference in defensive rating (87.6), steal percentage (13%), field goal percentage allowed (34.%), 3-point percentage allowed (25.8%) and opponent's true shooting percentage (44.8%). An opposing team hasn't registered 80 or more points in Tennessee's building this season, and only three have scored 70 or more.
Can the Tigers do it again without Jaylin Williams?
It's unclear when Williams will be able to return — Pearl said it'll be on a game-by-game basis — but Auburn was able to survive without him at Georgia because of various players stepping up. Chad Baker-Mazara posted a career-best 25 points in his first start with the Tigers, and Alabama-Huntsville transfer Chaney Johnson, also starting for the first time this season, logged an efficient 16 points.
A double-big pairing of Broome and Dylan Cardwell worked, too. That duo hadn't played together since it saw 1:30 against Indiana on Dec. 9, but it shared the floor for 10:35 versus the Bulldogs. The Tigers outscored Georgia 23-13 in that time.
Auburn basketball vs. Tennessee: Score prediction
Tennessee 65, Auburn 60: These two teams combined for 89 points in their last meeting in Thompson-Boiling Arena. That was a true rock fight that likely won't happen again, but a similar defensive duel should be expected. If Baker-Mazara stays hot or someone else steps up, the Tigers have a chance. For now, though, the Vols get the edge.
Richard Silva is the Auburn athletics beat writer for the Montgomery Advertiser. He can be reached via email at rsilva@gannett.com or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @rich_silva18.
This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Auburn basketball vs. Tennessee: Scouting reporting for SEC matchup
