Auburn basketball vs. Mississippi State: Score prediction, scouting report for rematch

AUBURN — It's time to shift expectations.

Auburn basketball isn't mathematically eliminated from winning the SEC regular-season title, but the Tigers would need a lot of help to make up ground on first-place squads Tennessee and Alabama. It's a tough pill to swallow — "It's going to be the hardest recovery," Auburn coach Bruce Pearl said of his Tigers losing to the Vols on Wednesday — but the season is far from over.

The goal now is to secure a top four seed in the conference, and with it a double bye to the third round of the SEC Tournament in Nashville. Getting there starts with beating Mississippi State on Saturday (3 p.m. CT, ESPN2/ESPNU). The Bulldogs have already beaten Auburn (21-7, 10-5 SEC) once this season, dropping the Tigers in Starkville on Jan. 27.

Here's a scouting report on Mississippi State (19-9, 8-7), as well as a prediction for how this one will play out.

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Josh Hubbard has only gotten hotter since starting against Auburn basketball

Four-star freshman Josh Hubbard made the first start of his collegiate career in Mississippi State's win over the Tigers earlier this season, and he took advantage by dropping 17 points. His production has only grown since, as he's averaging 18.3 points, 2.4 rebounds and two assists over his last nine games.

Hubbard's best game of the year came in a heartbreaker against Kentucky on Tuesday. He made four of his 10 shots from 3-point range on the way to dropping a season-high 34 points. Hubbard is shooting 40.4% from deep over his last five games, including a 45.2% mark on above-the-break attempts.

Mississippi State has trouble on the road

The good news for Auburn is that the Bulldogs have struggled away from Humphrey Coliseum this season. Mississippi State is 2-6 in true road games this season, and those couple of wins came against Missouri on Feb. 10 and LSU on Feb. 24. The former has yet to win a conference game, and the latter has a record under .500 against SEC teams.

Mississippi State has a turnover percentage of 15.4% in road games this season, per College Basketball Analytics. That ranks No. 11 in the SEC ahead of Vanderbilt (16.2%), Ole Miss (16.3%) and LSU (16.5%).

Another battle between Johni Broome and Tolu Smith

Auburn's Johni Broome and Mississippi State's Tolu Smith are the two best big men in the conference. Neither particularly excelled in the January meeting, but Broome impressed in the second half with 14 points, three rebounds and two blocks. He also held Smith to nine points. Smith has scored fewer than 10 points on two other occasions this season.

"Tolu Smith had nine points," Pearl said Jan. 27. "What kind of a job did Johni Broome do in there? Yeoman's work. Played great defense, played hard. ... He had some great baskets and some great plays himself on the inside. We probably could have done a better job of getting it to him."

Auburn basketball vs. Mississippi State: Score prediction

Auburn 79, Mississippi State 74: The Tigers top the Bulldogs to remain in contention for a top four seed in the SEC. Mississippi State, led by Hubbard and Smith, keeps it close, but Auburn does what it usually does and takes care of business in Neville Arena.

Richard Silva is the Auburn athletics beat writer for the Montgomery Advertiser. He can be reached via email at rsilva@gannett.com or on X, formerly known as X, @rich_silva18.

This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Auburn basketball vs. Mississippi State: Score prediction for Tigers