Around the Mountain: Some NCAA Tournament bracket projections as the second half of league play begins

Feb. 5—The industry of college basketball bracketology has erupted over the past decade.

What was once the niche market of a few of the top national networks is now being done by podcasts, blogs, local and national websites and beyond.

What is it, exactly? It is the sometimes daily updating and prognosticating of which 68 teams will make it into the NCAA Tournament in March — an exercise that has no real impact at all on who actually makes it into the NCAA Tournament.

It's added content that keeps the discussion alive around a sport. As UNM coach Richard Pitino has said about power rankings, polls and things like bracket predictions, media in general "have to crown a champion every week" by putting out content and lists that fans may complain about, but certainly eat up.

With that said, Sports Illustrated's Kevin Sweeney, who is also one of the hosts of the web show Fielding the Bracket on the Field of 68 Podcast Network, joined the Journal for Episode 78 of the Talking Grammer podcast (available Tuesday on ABQJournal.com, the Journal's YouTube page or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts) to help us break down where the Mountain West stands in the world of bracketology at the midway point of league play with hopes of as many as six teams playing in the Big Dance.

"It's hard to sift through everything. It's also early February and a lot of things will change and it's probably not worth pulling anyone's hair out on February 5, February 6 about who's In? Who's Out? Or No. 7 seed versus 8 seed," Sweeney said.

"... But I think the league as a whole is in very good shape and I think it's certainly good for the Mountain West that this is the conversation we're having, not like, how do we sneak a second or how do we sneak a third team into the field?"

The first big bracket projection Sweeney has compiled this season for SI.com will publish Tuesday. On Monday, he shared with the Journal his thoughts on what to watch for when following bracket projections and where the Mountain West's six teams in the hunt currently stand. My summary of his thoughts, listed by Monday's NET ranking, is here:

—New Mexico Lobos (NET 18): "Solid shape" with the Lobos in at around the No. 8 or No. 9 seed with the understanding a lot of the UNM story remains to be told with so many tough road games in the final nine games of league play. The Lobos didn't have a strong nonconference season in terms of big wins, especially on the road, but have done nothing to hurt their case to date.

—San Diego State (NET 20): The Aztecs have the best chance at not only getting in the tournament, but having a really good seed because of some of the quality wins they had in nonconference play coupled with no bad losses. SDSU is likely headed for a seed between 4 and 8.

—Utah State (NET 24): The Aggies are the surprise of the Mountain West, but like the Lobos, don't have a huge list of big wins yet, putting them at about a No. 7 seed.

—Colorado State (NET 28): The Rams had a great nonconference season with quality wins (Creighton, for one) but has been less spectacular in league play. Still, Sweeney has them in as the last No. 6 seed.

—Boise State (NET 35): The Broncos, like the Lobos, check in around the No. 8/9 range based on some huge wins but less-than-spectacular computer metrics. BSU will tell anyone who will listen (or isn't listening) that they played a very tough schedule, but they didn't win enough with that schedule to get them very high in the computer metrics.

—Nevada (NET 56): The Wolf Pack has lost four of six, including the 34-point Pit loss to UNM, and is on the outside looking in at the moment. But Nevada does have good wins (TCU, for instance) that could help their case.

PLAYERS OF THE WEEK: Boise State's Max Rice, powered by his career-high 35 points and seven made 3-pointers against the Lobos in the Pit last Wednesday, was named the Mountain West Player of the Week on Monday. He also had 12 points and four more made 3-pointers in Saturday's win over Air Force.

UNLV's Dedan Thomas Jr. won his second MW Freshman of the Week award on Monday after averaging 13 points and 5.5 assists in wins over Fresno State and Wyoming.

ALL-FRESHMAN TEAM: At the midway point, I see the league's all-freshman team being pretty clear cut, not only for the top five players on it, but who would win Freshman of the Year if the season ended today.

Here are my midseason MW all-freshman picks:

—G Dedan Thomas, UNLV

—G Tru Washington, New Mexico

—G Mason Falslev, Utah State

—F JT Toppin, New Mexico (Freshman of the Year)

—F Cam Manyawu, Wyoming

TEAM OF THE WEEK: Three teams are worth a mention here who all entered the week off potential momentum-draining losses a week ago.

First, the two honorable mentions.

Nevada bounced back from the 34-point loss in the Pit to the Lobos last Sunday with a 90-60 home win over San Jose State in Reno. You know. Your standard 64-point Mountain West turnaround from one game to the next.

Colorado State had lost two in a row, including a heart-breaker in overtime to rival Wyoming before beating San Diego State at home and picking up its first league road win at Fresno State.

But, clearly, the Boise State Broncos had the best week of any team in the Mountain West. Coming off a home loss in overtime to Utah State, the Broncos got the big upset over the Lobos in the Pit, then beat Air Force by 38 points at home on Saturday and are tied with Utah State (7-2 in league play) for first place in the league standings at the midway point.

POLL POSITION: Three MW teams found their way into Monday's Associated Press Top 25 with two others checking in among the top handful of teams in the "others receiving votes" section.

—No. 22 Utah State (19-3, 7-2 MW): The Aggies fall from No. 17, have a high vote of No. 10 and did not appear on 10 (of 61) voter ballots.

—No. 24 San Diego State (17-5, 6-3 MW): The Aztecs were unranked last week, received a high vote of 15 and didn't appear on 27 voter ballots.

—No. 25 New Mexico (15-4, 6-3 MW): The Lobos drop from No. 19 with a high vote of 15 (Dylan Sinn of the Journal-Gazette in Fort Wayne, Ind.) and 27 voters left UNM unranked.

—Boise State (16-6, 7-2 MW): The Broncos' 49 points leave them four spots out of being ranked (No. 25 UNM has 123 points).

—Colorado State (17-5, 5-4 MW): The Rams' 43 points are five spots out of the rankings.

HIGH FIVE: Here are the five games to watch this week in the Mountain West (listed in chronological order, not ranked):

—Nevada at Utah State, Tuesday, 7 p.m. (TheMW.com)

—Boise State at Colorado State, Tuesday, 7 p.m. (TheMW.com)

—San Diego State at Nevada, Friday, 6 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)

—UNLV at New Mexico, Saturday, 6 p.m., (CBS Sports Network)

—Boise State at Utah State, Saturday, 8 p.m. (FS1)