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Arkansas baseball vs. Texas A&M: Scouting report, prediction for top-five SEC showdown

jackson fuller, fort smith southwest times record
·4 min read

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas baseball is one win away from a ninth SEC West title, and standing in the Razorbacks' way is their direct competition for the division crown.

The No. 2 Razorbacks (42-10, 19-8 SEC) hit the road this weekend to face No. 4 Texas A&M (42-10, 17-10) for a three-game series beginning Thursday night. The Aggies' only hope of usurping Arkansas for the SEC West championship is pulling off a sweep in the final series of the regular season.

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Both teams still have hopes of winning the overall conference title, but they need help. Arkansas must win one more game than Kentucky and match Tennessee's winning output this weekend to at least share the crown. The Aggies need to sweep Arkansas, hope Kentucky gets swept by Vanderbilt and have Tennessee lose two games to South Carolina.

Arkansas is one win or one Georgia loss away from clinching a top-four seed in the SEC Tournament. All three games between the Hogs and Aggies will be available to watch on national television, with the series opener on ESPN2 and the final two games on the SEC Network.

Here's a look at one thing to watch this weekend for Arkansas, a more detailed look at Texas A&M and a series prediction.

What happens next for Arkansas baseball's starting rotation?

It feels like changes are coming to what is still statistically one of the best weekend rotations in the country. Arkansas starters rank second nationally with a 3.20 ERA, but Mason Molina and Brady Tygart have produced stinkers in back-to-back weeks, failing to log more than three innings in their last four starts combined.

As of Wednesday morning, the Hogs rotation for the Texas A&M series is still to be determined. Ben Bybee has plenty of experience as a midweek starter, and Dave Van Horn has previously said that Gage Wood is under consideration.

Arkansas baseball's Hagen Smith fires a pitch during the Razorbacks' 7-5 win over Mississippi State Friday, May 10, 2024.
Arkansas baseball's Hagen Smith fires a pitch during the Razorbacks' 7-5 win over Mississippi State Friday, May 10, 2024.

Whoever starts against Texas A&M needs to throw strikes and look better than Molina and Tygart have over the past two weeks. This question will define Arkansas' season with the NCAA Tournament around the corner and expectations of an impending trip to Omaha.

Texas A&M players to watch

Batters: One through nine, the entire Texas A&M lineup is explosive and efficient. The Aggies are tied for second in the SEC with 475 runs and lead the conference with 339 walks. Again, throwing strikes needs to be a premium focus for Arkansas pitchers.

Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery (6) celebrates a home run with his teammates in the first inning of the Longhorns' game against the Texas A&M Aggies at the UFCU Disch-Falk Field in Austin, Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery (6) celebrates a home run with his teammates in the first inning of the Longhorns' game against the Texas A&M Aggies at the UFCU Disch-Falk Field in Austin, Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Individually, the Aggies are led by a three-headed monster in Braden Montgomery (.333/.476/.778), Jace LaViolette (.320/.455/.825) and Gavin Grahovac (.327/.416/.636). Montgomery leads the SEC with 77 RBIs and LaViolette is third with 69. The trio has combined for 69 home runs, just one short of Arkansas' total output of 70.

And over the last two weeks, no Texas A&M hitter is hotter than catcher Jackson Appel, who also has a team-best .347 batting average. The Arkansas pitching staff will need to do its best this weekend.

Pitchers: All signs point to Thursday night's opener featuring one of the best pitching matchups in the country when Arkansas' Hagen Smith (9-0, 1.65 ERA) faces Texas A&M's Ryan Prager (8-1, 2.71). The Aggies' sophomore lefty has given up more than three earned runs in just two starts this season, but his ERA has risen by nearly a full point over his last four starts.

Justin Lamkin (2-2, 5.47) and Shane Sdao (4-1, 2.02) will follow Prager if Jim Schlossnagle sticks with his same rotation from last weekend. Sdao made his second weekend start of the season on Sunday and pitched seven scoreless innings as Texas A&M knocked off Ole Miss 6-0 to avoid a sweep.

Out of the bullpen, Evan Aschenbeck (7 saves, 1.94), Chris Cortez (7-2, 3.71) and Brad Rudis (5-0, 1.26) are the top arms. As a whole, Texas A&M's pitching staff ranks third in the SEC and eighth in the country with a 4.00 ERA.

Prediction: Texas A&M wins series 2-1

This is the first time all year, I am not predicting an Arkansas series victory. The Aggies are desperate coming off back-to-back series losses and will be buoyed by their home fans. Still, one win will be enough for Arkansas to clinch the SEC West title, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hogs get it done Thursday night with Smith on the mound.

This article originally appeared on Fort Smith Times Record: Arkansas baseball vs. Texas A&M: Scouting report, prediction