Analyzing whether Danielle Hunter trade is possible for 49ers
By mid-June there aren’t many moves a team can make to go “all-in” on a given year. The 49ers have already put themselves in a prime spot to contend this year while also having draft picks and some salary cap flexibility in the future. However, one potential move is left on the trade market with rumors surfacing that Vikings defensive end Danielle Hunter could be available in the trade market.
Hunter, 28, is the caliber of edge defender that fits with any team. Last season he put up 10.5 sacks and logged 70 total pressures according to Pro Football Focus. Since joining the league as a third-round pick of the Vikings in 2015 he’s never had a season with fewer than 6.0 sacks, and he’s had double-digits in four of his seven seasons. In fact, the only two seasons where he has 6.0 sacks were his rookie year and the 2021 season where he only played in seven games. All of his pass rushing success is accompanied by consistently strong run defense that allows him to stay on the field for all three downs.
Edge defenders of Hunter’s caliber don’t typically come available, which is why the 49ers have to at least poke around on a possible deal. Let’s take a dive into what this might look like and some of the pros and cons of such a colossal move by San Francisco:
Why is he available?
Minnesota appears to be doing a little bit of a retooling on their roster. They already let running back Dalvin Cook go, and Hunter is entering the final year of his contract (more on this later). He’s set to turn 29 in the middle of this season and he’s had some health issues that may give the Vikings pause on handing him a third contract. Hunter missed all of 2020 after having surgery to fix a herniated disc in his neck, and then his 2021 campaign was cut short by a pec injury that forced him to miss the final 10 games of the year. As he enters is final season, Minnesota may want to get something in return for him knowing he may very well exit in free agency.
What might a trade look like?
Buckle up, because there are some layers to this answer.
As with all trades, it’ll depend on how many teams are in the mix and what kind of bidding war goes on for his services. The Vikings will likely get a third-round compensatory pick if he leaves, so that’s where the bidding figures to start. A second-round pick in 2024 and perhaps another late Day 2 or early Day 3 pick in 2025 might get it done.
HOWEVER, our friends at the Vikings Wire floated something interesting where the 49ers could include quarterback Trey Lance in the deal. That may bring the pick compensation down significantly depending on how Minnesota feels about Lance as he enters his third season with veteran QB Kirk Cousins going into a contract year. It’s not inconceivable that the Vikings could go this route and try to find their franchise QB without using a draft pick.
For the 49ers though it’s not easy to just throw Lance into a trade. Quarterback depth is important, and they believe they have three QBs on their roster they can win with between Lance, Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold. With all due respect to Brandon Allen, letting go of Lance brings that number to two. There aren’t many players who’d make it worthwhile for the 49ers to let go of the 2021 No. 3 pick, but Hunter at least makes it a discussion.
If San Francisco’s coaching staff and front office have truly seen enough of Lance to believe he won’t be their starter at any point, then it’s easy to see them prioritizing their pass rush, making that move and relying on a Purdy-Darnold-Allen trio to get them through the season.
It’d be a pretty significant risk, but the 49ers have made it clear how valuable they think game-wrecking pass rushers are. Lance and one of the 49ers’ 2024 third-round picks could be enough to get the Vikings in on a trade.
What's Hunter's contract situation?
Hunter is only under contract through the 2023 season. He would cost San Francisco $5.5 million against the cap this year.
Would he need a new deal?
Eventually he will, and this might be a sticking point for the 49ers in any trade.
They could be looking to add him just for 2023 where they can pay him $5.5 million to try and win a title this year and then let him walk in the offseason. It should be noted that in this case they would probably not be keen on moving Lance in a trade.
It’s unlikely Hunter would want to even play without a new deal though, and at that point it becomes about the type of contract he wants and whether the 49ers can or want to afford it. They may like Hunter, but read the same tea leaves the Vikings are on his age and injury issues in 2020 and 2021. San Francisco isn’t in a great spot to absorb another monster contract that lands in the $20-25 million per year range, and that’s likely the floor of what a productive edge defender like Hunter would be after in a new deal.
What about the current 49ers DEs?
The idea of pairing Hunter with Nick Bosa is what makes this so tantalizing for the 49ers. Hunter, Bosa, Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead would be a nightmare for opposing offenses.
San Francisco doesn’t have a ton of proven depth behind Bosa, so Hunter would push second-year DE Drake Jackson down the depth chart, and could leave a player like Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant or rookie Robert Beal Jr. without a role.
The 49ers may want to see what they have in that group before they go make a major swing like this. If they struggle in training camp, then maybe San Francisco is more apt to go big at such an important position. If they’re better than that, the 49ers could stand pat or go after a cheaper free agent veteran.
Soooo... should they make the trade?
In a vacuum, yes. Any time a player like Hunter can be acquired, any team should do it.
However, there are a ton of moving parts here that make the deal unlikely. The 49ers have been aggressive to acquire players in the Kyle Shanahan-John Lynch era, but it’s typically borne out of necessity. Hunter would very much change the long-term picture for San Francisco assuming he requires an extension.
This is a move the 49ers should at the very least be looking into, but the likelihood that they will before training camp isn’t particularly high.
