Michigan football too low in PFF’s 2023 Big Ten power rankings
PFF is among the best in the business when it comes to analysis. The advanced analytics company gives an accurate depiction of what was in terms of scoring each player in college football, but their analysts also do a great job of predicting what will be.
Two years ago, Anthony Treash appeared with us on the “Locked On Wolverines” podcast and proclaimed Michigan would beat Wisconsin (when no one thought it was possible) and gave the Wolverines an above average chance to beat Ohio State. He was equally bullish last year. Max Chadwick appeared on the podcast this year and was all-in on Michigan’s national championship aspirations.
PFF released its ELO rankings this week. While Michigan football is ranked very highly among the 133 teams in the highest level of the sport, that doesn’t mean the Wolverines are the top dog.
Here is how the Big Ten teams are ranked against each other as well as our opinion as to where they should be.
Northwestern Wildcats
Verdict: Exact right spot
Just a few years after making two Big Ten Championship games, it doesn’t appear that Pat Fitzgerald has any answers.
Northwestern won the season opener in dramatic fashion in Ireland before losing every game left on the schedule. Maybe it gets better, but the program has been getting worse for two straight years, and there’s little indication it’s on the way up.
Indiana Hoosiers
Verdict: Right spot
Despite Indiana upending a handful of teams last year, there’s really no indication Tom Allen has the Hoosiers returning to the glory that was the 2020 season. The defense needs help. The offense changed identity midseason last year. And the plucky chaos team of old appears to be out the window.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Verdict: Perhaps too low
Rutgers started as a competitive team each of the last few years before falling off spectacularly once it started playing some of the big dogs in the conference. The defense has been good, mostly, but the offense has been abysmal. There’s no telling whether or not any of the quarterbacks will take control and improve year-over-year, but we could see the Scarlet Knights again flirting with bowl eligibility, despite a very tough schedule.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Verdict: No idea
With Matt Rhule taking over the Huskers, there’s really no telling what this Nebraska team will be. There is talent, but probably not as much as there has tended to be in Lincoln over the years. Under Scott Frost, usually Nebraska was competitive, it just couldn’t finish. We’ll see what Rhule does, and he’s a fantastic football coach. But it wouldn’t surprise us to see the Cornhuskers have any kind of year — good, bad, meh — because they’re just that unknown.
Michigan State Spartans
Verdict: About right
Perhaps we would have had MSU higher this year if Payton Thorne and Keon Coleman didn’t unexpectedly enter the NCAA transfer portal during spring ball. At the moment, there are really no redeeming qualities on the offensive side of the ball for the Spartans, and there’s limited hope on defense, save for a handful of transfers and linebacker Cal Haladay. A 7-5 mark is probably the ceiling for this team — and even that feels like a bit of a stretch — even if most in East Lansing don’t want to admit it.
Purdue Boilermakers
Verdict: Too high
After losing head coach Jeff Brohm, quarterback Aidan O’Connell and several other star players, this really should be a step-back year for Purdue. Ryan Walters, a defensive-minded head coach, takes over and while Hudson Card could step up after being at Texas, it feels like Purdue is likely to be closer to the bottom of the division than not.
Maryland Terrapins
Verdict: Too low
There are numerous new coaches in College Park as well as some losses along the offensive line. But with Taulia Tagovailoa returning and Mike Locksley reteaming with Josh Gattis, the offense has the potential to be electric. If the defense plays at the level it did last year, the Terps could upend one of the big dogs in the division.
Wisconsin Badgers
Verdict: Too low
The jury is out on what Wisconsin will be in 2024, though most pundits (here included) expect a big year under new head coach Luke Fickell. The defense should still be very good while the offense — with new offensive coordinator Phil Longo and SMU transfer QB Tanner Mordecai — should take a step forward. The Badgers still have incredible running backs, Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi. Aside from Iowa, this is the class of the Big Ten West. One bad year and a coaching change doesn’t really change that.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Verdict: About right, maybe a spot or two too low
The defense isn’t really in question, even with the loss of Jack Campbell to the NFL. Phil Parker has done an excellent job perennially reloading. The offense is what is. But with Cade McNamara, Erick All, and Kaleb Brown joining the squad, as long as Brian Ferentz recognizes the personnel and plans accordingly, the Hawkeyes should take a step forward — a big one — on that side of the ball. There’s no reason Iowa shouldn’t be the West’s representative in the Big Ten Championship game this year.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Verdict: Too high
Way too high. Illinois was a very good story last year going 8-4, but with the departures of QB Tommy DeVito, RB Chase Brown and defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, this feels like a step-back year, not one where it steps forward or remains the same.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Verdict: Too high
This makes no sense. There are few returning playmakers in Minneapolis, but multiple losses on the lines as well as QB Tanner Morgan and RB Mohamed Ibrahim. Athan Kaliakmanis may step in and do an admirable job or even surpass Morgan’s ability, but that remains to be seen. He did OK filling in against Penn State last year, but he didn’t open a lot of eyes, either.
This could be a year that Minnesota is middling.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Verdict: Right spot
At this moment, Penn State, while being a perennial media darling, is among the best teams in the conference and a dark-horse College Football Playoff contender. The only issue for the Nittany Lions is that they play in the Big Ten East, which has both Michigan and Ohio State. Drop them in the ACC, Pac-12 or Big 12, and there’s a good chance that PSU would be the favorite to win the conference.
For better or worse this season, Penn State is third in the conference — no higher, no lower.
Michigan Wolverines
Verdict: Too low
Coming off of two straight Big Ten Championships along with two straight dominant wins over Ohio State, Michigan should have earned the benefit of the doubt. What’s more, the Wolverines return most of their high-profile playmakers, including J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum. At the moment, the conference appears to be Michigan’s to lose, so it’s kind of odd to see PFF place the Wolverines at the No. 2 spot in the conference. If anything, Michigan got better this offseason, while the personnel in Columbus indicates they’ll be worse.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Verdict: Too high
While it is somewhat splitting hairs declaring the No. 1 ESPN FPI team as the top dog in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes show no indication they’ve solved the issues presented by Michigan. What’s more, despite having a lot of talent, Ohio State will break in a new quarterback, multiple linemen on both sides of the ball and new faces in the secondary. If there was any year in the past decade where it appears OSU could take a step backward, it would be this one.
That said, a step back for Ohio State doesn’t preclude it from winning the conference.
