Ahead of Dodgers series, Diamondbacks' Corbin Carroll looks like postseason star
For much of the past decade, looking at the Dodgers roster has been a terrifying exercise. A Hall of Famer here, a megastar there, a guy who’s always killed your team lurking in the shadows. This year’s group isn’t quite that. They have identifiable weaknesses — areas where the Diamondbacks are clearly superior.
Still, the Dodgers hold one massive advantage. The top two hitters in their lineup, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, are ferocious presences. Both are almost certain to finish in the top three of NL MVP voting.
So how can the Diamondbacks punch back in the NL Division Series? The answer might just lie in their rookie sensation, Corbin Carroll.
No, Carroll is not Betts or Freeman. According to Baseball Reference’s calculations, Betts was worth 8.4 WAR in the regular season with Freeman at 6.6. Carroll led the Diamondbacks with 5.4. But like Betts, he’s a leadoff man who can hit for average and power, while creating far more havoc than the veteran Betts does on the bases.
Just look at Carroll’s contributions against the Brewers in the wild-card round. Playing the first two postseason games of his career, he went 4 for 7 with a double, a home run and two walks.
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Even that stat line might understate Carroll’s impact. Two innings into the series, the Diamondbacks were already down 3-0, their chances of taking Game 1 hovering around 20%. Little life existed in the dugout.
Then, Carroll — the first rookie to ever hit 25 homers and steal 50 bases — took a changeup from Brewers’ ace Corbin Burnes out to the second deck in right field.
“That was the spark,” Christian Walker said. “It just kind of let everybody know, hey, we're in this.”
The Diamondbacks didn’t look back in a 6-3 win. And the next night turned out to be a similar story. Arizona trailed again entering the fifth inning, when Carroll turned on a Freddy Peralta changeup and grounded it down the right-field line for a double. The hit ignited a stagnant Diamondbacks’ offense, setting the table for a four-run inning that keyed a 5-2 win.
“It’s hard to put into words what he does for this team,” Merrill Kelly, their NLDS Game 1 starter, said. “I don’t think we’re here without him.”
There is, inherently, a burden to shoulder when a player doubles as both a rookie and his team’s most important player. Yet against the Brewers, Carroll never appeared fazed, even when the Diamondbacks lacked any signs of life early on.
In each of his key at-bats, he avoided the type of unnecessary aggression that often plagues inexperienced hitters, laying off pitches just outside the strike zone to set up both his crucial hits. In Game 1, when he walked twice, that composure helped set up an important insurance run as well.
Even Carroll knows it’s an unusual brand of equanimity. In a postgame interview with MLB Network, he was asked where that comes from.
“I think maybe some of it natural, some of it learned,” Carroll said. “My approach has always been, never get too high, never get too low. Don’t ride those waves, just stay even-keeled and get through it.”
This week’s divisional round will certainly bring more waves. It’s also, though, a series that could be tailored to Carroll’s strengths.
His 54 stolen bases this season were good for third in baseball, all while being caught just five times. The Dodgers, meanwhile, ranked fifth-worst with 142 stolen bases allowed. Their 17% caught stealing rate was also well below league average. In 13 regular season games against Los Angeles, Carroll stole six bases in six tries — his most steals against any single opponent.
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None of which is to say Carroll is the only Diamondbacks player capable of carrying the offensive load. Ketel Marte, who hits behind him in the lineup, was among the best second basemen in the league this year. On Tuesday, he followed Carroll’s homer with one of his own to tie the game. Against the Dodgers in the 2017 NLDS, Marte — one of two remaining Diamondbacks from that series — went 4 for 12 with a homer.
But to counteract the stardom of Betts and Freeman, Carroll might just be the Diamondbacks’ best bet. Speaking with reporters amid postgame celebrations Wednesday night, he specifically mentioned the Dodgers’ “1-2 punch” at the top of their lineup.
“We know what we’re up against,” Carroll acknowledged.
The rookie also issued a warning:
“I wouldn’t count us out.”
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Corbin Carroll gives Diamondbacks fighting chance in NLDS matchup
