What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA say about the Saints going into Week 5
It’s too soon to say the New Orleans Saints have figured anything out or fixed their problems, and we won’t be able to say that until they’ve leveled out the win-loss column. But what we can do is acknowledge the growth they’re making in some areas while continuing to focus on where they can improve. And though they did lose Week 4’s game with the Minnesota Vikings, there are some positive takeaways when you look through the advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, ANY/A, SCIA, and XLRA (okay, those last two were made up). Here’s what we’ve learned:
Overall
The Football Outsiders DVOA metric (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) improved the Saints’ rating this week (up to No. 22 after ranking them No. 27 a week ago), crediting the offense for approaching league-average efficiency (ranking the Andy Dalton-led unit at No. 19) and acknowledging their top-10 defense (ranked No. 9 across the league), but too many errors and missed opportunities on special teams saw the kicking units rank dead-last around the NFL (at No. 32). Let’s take a deeper look at each phase:
Offense
DVOA: No. 19 (Last week: No. 26)
EPA/Play: No. 25 (Last week: No. 31)
Success rate: No. 6 (Last week: No. 14)
Dropback EPA: No.24 (Last week: No. 27)
Dropback success rate: No. 12 (Last week: No. 16)
Rushing EPA: No. 21 (Last week: No. 26)
Rushing success rate: No. 2 (Last week: No. 9)
As we’ve noted before, the EPA (Expected Points Added) and success rate stats from rbsdm.com are reliable indicators of success in different areas, reflecting how effectively teams are moving the ball, converting first downs, and scoring points relative to down and distance.
And we saw some small improvements across the board with Andy Dalton at quarterback, finding a higher success rate with passing plays and running more effectively. Now let’s not get it twisted – this is still a mediocre unit that isn’t playing up to its talent level, but Dalton may be getting more out of it than Winston was. Which makes sense given their strengths as passers. Dalton is more decisive and gets the ball out quickly, while Winston prefers to let plays develop while chasing a big gain.
The Saints offense was designed for passers with Dalton’s skill set, not Winston, hinging on Drew Brees’ knack for eagerly taking a 7-yard pickup over and over again. It doesn’t mean Dalton is a better quarterback than Winston (their resumes are proof of that), but he may be a better fit with things as they currently stand. As for the run game: blocking is continuing to improve week-by-week and we’re seeing it pay off with greater success on the ground. Cesar Ruiz in particular deserves some praise for his growth as a run blocker.
Defense
DVOA: No. 9 (Last week: No. 10)
EPA/Play: No. 9 (Last week: No. 8)
Success rate: No. 6 (Last week: No. 4)
Dropback EPA: No. 20 (Last week: No. 12)
Dropback success rate: No. 11 (Last week: No. 5)
Rushing EPA: No. 5 (Last week: No. 4)
Rushing success rate: No. 10 (Last week: No. 8)
We saw the Saints defense take a step back this week, particularly through the air where Justin Jefferson got the better of his matchup with Marshon Lattimore. It was a rare bad day in the office for No. 23. But we’ve got to praise the Saints pass rush for continuing to step up week after week with three more sacks and frequent pressure; Kirk Cousins just did a good job evading it and making plays anyway, so credit to him. If this is the worst the Saints pass defense looks all season (and it might be!) it’s still an above-average unit.
And the run defense deserves more credit. Don’t get hung up on the step back from last week’s ranking. They’re still performing as well as any other squad around the league in this phase of the game, limiting Dalvin Cook to a palty 76 yards on 20 rushing attempts. That’s an average of 3.8 yards per carry, a full yard beneath his career average. Minnesota converted just three first downs on the ground in this game and had two gains of 10 or more yards.
Andy Dalton
Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement: No. 1
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average: No. 1
Effective yards: No. 1
QBR: 60.0 (No. 11)
Completion %: 71.4% (No. 2)
TD %: 3.6% (Tied-No. 18)
INT %: 0.0% (Tied-No. 1)
Sack %: 6.7% (Tied-No. 21)
Yards/Attempt: 8.4 (No. 3)
Adjusted Yards/Attempt: 9.1 (No. 2)
Net Yards/Attempt: 7.6 (No. 3)
Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt: 8.2 (No. 2)
Let’s start with a disclaimer: Dalton falls in a different tier than Winston at Football Outsiders owing to his smaller sample size (10 to 59 passes; Winston is with the other starters and those who have thrown 60 or more attempts this season) so we shouldn’t directly compare the two with those stats. Instead, Dalton’s peers include Teddy Bridgewater, Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Bailey Zappe, Dak Prescott, and Trey Lance, all of whom have been limited by injuries or status as a backup to the starter. He also didn’t qualify for the 64-play threshold at rbsdm.com, so we’ve got less to work with here than normal.
And all of those impressive finishes in the percentage and yards per attempt stats? That’s where he would rank among passers around the league if his small sample size did qualify, but it doesn’t, and those numbers will decrease as he drops back to pass more frequently. He’s going to take more sacks and throw interceptions and experience negative plays, that’s just how it goes. Sorry for the cold water, but don’t use this as a reason to call for a permanent change under center.
But the data we do have suggests Dalton is one of the better backup quarterbacks around the NFL, getting the ball out quickly and decisively and avoiding negative plays. He had a couple of really ugly moments (that dropped interception and fumble before halftime stand out in a bad way) but for the most part he did enough to give the team a shot at winning Week 4. That might be the most we could ask of him with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas watching from the sidelines. If Dalton starts again in Week 5, possibly with his best pass-catchers available, we’ll have a better idea of his ceiling in this offense.
