Advanced Stats: Cardinals first real Cowboys competition in months
It’s Week 17 in the 2021 NFL season and the Dallas Cowboys are NFC East Champions. With the division wrapped up, Dallas can focus on seeding from this point onward. Currently the No. 2 seed via a three-way tiebreaker with the L.A. Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Cowboys have the potential to finish anywhere in the top four with two games remaining.
Coming off of a 56-point decimation of the Washington Football Team, the Cowboys are on a four game winning streak and sit at 11-4 on the season. Dallas will host the Arizona Cardinals in a Sunday afternoon game and at home, the Cowboys have averaged 38.4 PPG and 426.1 YPG.
Arizona is 10-5 on the season but have lost five of their last eight games after an impressive 7-0 start to the season. They are one game behind the Rams in the NFC West and currently hold the No. 5 seed. The Cardinals have played particularly well on the road this year with a 7-1 record, averaging 30.3 points per game and 2.5 takeaways in those games.
Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) - Football Outsiders
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
DVOA is a metric which measures the success of each play as compared to league average using percentage points above or below average. The metric measures down, distance, field location, quarter and quality of opponent.
With DVOA, teams are looking for a higher percentage offensively and a lower percentage defensively. On offense and special teams, the objective is to perform above league average while defenses are looking to force their opponents to perform below league average.
Information via Football Outsiders.
DVOA Offense
The Cowboys lead the Cardinals in two out of the three DVOA categories with a tie on passing DVOA.
Dallas and Arizona both tie for seventh overall in passing DVOA at 26.9% each. Both team’s quarterbacks rank highly in individual passing DVOA as well with Kyler Murray in fifth place with a DVOA of 17% and Dak Prescott right behind him in 6th place with a 16.8% rating.
Rushing DVOA favors the Cowboys with a -4.2% DVOA on rushing attempts, 16th overall. The Cardinals are 22nd with a -12.9% DVOA.
Overall offensive DVOA favors the Cowboys with a 10.6%, 8th overall compared to the Cardinals 3.4%, 16th overall.
Offensive Advantage: Cowboys
DVOA Defense
As a brief reminder, while we are looking for positive DVOA’s on offense, a negative DVOA is better on defense.
Much like we saw in offensive DVOA, the Cowboys hold the edge in two of the three categories.
The Cowboys defense has been phenomenal in terms of generating takeaways and preventing 3rd down conversions this season. Dallas is first in passing DVOA with a -22.6%. The Cardinals have also done really well in this regard as they rank fifth overall with a -3.7%.
The Cardinals take the edge in rushing DVOA with a -18.1%, fifth best in the league. The Cowboys are quite a bit behind Arizona in rushing DVOA at -7.1%, 19th overall.
The Cowboys defense ranks first overall in total defensive DVOA at -16.6%. Arizona is again not far behind in 5th place with a -9.7% DVOA.
Defensive Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Advantage: Cowboys (Cowboys lead 4 of the 6 categories)
Expected Points Added and Success Rate
(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)
EPA measures the impact a play has on the likelihood of scoring. With EPA, yardage, field position, and down and distance all weigh in on what the expected net points would be for the situation. As an example, a first and goal at the one-yard line would represent a higher EP-Expected Points than a third and 10 on your own 20 yard line.
EPA is the difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the beginning of the play compared to the end of the play. It measures the plays impact on the score of the game.
Success rate is a measure of how often teams get 40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on third down or fourth down.
EPA figures gathered by rbsdm.
EPA: Offense
This matchup represents the first time this season that the Cowboys have not held the advantage in offensive EPA over their opponents. Arizona leads all four categories and will represent a challenging matchup for the Cowboys.
Both teams rank in the top 10 in EPA per play with Arizona averaging .084 per snap and the Cowboys averaging .058. Arizona ranks three spots higher than Dallas but the gap is relatively small.
Passing EPA or EPA per dropback, also favors Arizona by a slight margin. The Cowboys average .138 EPA per dropback, 10th overall, while the Cardinals average .168 EPA per dropback, 6th overall.
Rushing EPA is where Arizona has the largest gap over Dallas with AZ ranking 10 spots higher with a -.041 per play compared to the Cowboys -.081. In laymans terms, this means both teams are failing to reach their expected points total on average every time they hand the ball off.
Success rate is a category that the Cowboys have led in most games this season but that is not the case this week. The Cardinals have a success rate of 47%, sixth overall, while the Cowboys are not far behind at 46%, 11th in the NFL.
Offensive Advantage: Cardinals
EPA: Defense
While the goal is score points on the offensive side of the ball, we are looking for the opposite from the defense. The defense’s mission is to prevent the opponent from reaching their expected point total. Therefore, we are looking for a negative number for EPA and a lower number for success rate.
While the Cardinals hold the edge offensively, the Cowboys have the advantage defensively.
Starting with EPA/play, the Cowboys rank No.1 in the league holding opponents to -.121 per snap. The Cardinals also perform well in this regard as they rank 4th with a -.081.
The Cowboys lead the league in Passing EPA/play with a -.150. Arizona is again not far behind Dallas with a -.044 Passing EPA/play, 5th overall.
Rushing EPA/play favors the Cardinals who rank 3rd overall with a -.140 EPA. The Cowboys are also holding their opponents to a negative EPA while running the football but with a -.067 they are 18th overall.
The Cowboys defense leads the league in third-down conversion rate allowed so it is no surprise the overall success rate against is also among the best in the NFL. The Cowboys opponents have a success rate of 40.5% overall, the 2nd best defensive total among all teams. The Cardinals are allowing a 43.6% success rate, 13th overall.
Defensive Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Advantage: Cardinals ( Winners of 5 of 8 EPA categories)
Toxic Differential:Toxicity
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Toxic differential (also referred to as Toxicity) is a statistic created by then Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Brian Billick. Billick realized that adding the number of explosive plays an offense generates and subtracting the number of explosive plays a defense allows, then adding the turnover margin, was a key barometer of team success.
Under Billick’s formula, explosive plays are defined as passing plays over 20 yards and rushing plays over 10 yards. These figures were gathered by Sharp Football Stats.
Toxic Differential: Offense
Both the Cowboys and Cardinals have strong offensive attacks with each team having strong QB play, a running attack and a bevy of receiving talent to attack opposing defenses with. The Cowboys are first in YPG (409.5) and PPG (30.5) and the Cardinals are 8h in YPG (376.5) and 10th in PPG (26.3).
The Cowboys rank eighth in explosive passes with 54 for the season and 10th in explosive runs with 49 runs of 10 yards or more. They are averaging 6.87 explosive plays per game. The Cowboys explosive play leaders are CeeDee Lamb with 18, and Amari Cooper with 13. Lamb is generating an explosive play on 16% of his touches and averaging 8.9 yards per play.
The Cardinals rank fourth in explosive pass plays with 56 this season and 15th with 46 explosive runs. They are averaging 6.8 explosive plays per game and have done a phenomenal job in protecting the football with just 14 turnovers on the year. The Cardinals explosive play leaders are WR’s A.J. Green and Christian Kirk with 14 explosive plays each. Green is creating an explosive play on 18% of his touches and averages 9.4 yards per play.
Adding the explosive runs and passes and then subtracting turnovers allows us to determine the offensive toxicity score.
Cowboys: 54 explosive passes+ 49 explosive runs= 103 explosive plays.
103 explosive plays – 19 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 84.
Cardinals: 56 explosive passes+ 46 explosive runs= 102 explosive plays.
102 explosive plays – 14 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 88.
Offensive Advantage: Cardinals
Toxic Differential- Defense
The Cowboys defense has done a great job of stopping opponents on 3rd down and limiting their success rate, ranking in the top 2 in both regards, but have allowed their fair share of explosive plays this season. The defense has given up 55 explosive passes, the fourth most in the league, and 43 big runs this year. Where the defense has shined is in takeaways, generating 33 (25 ints and 8 fumbles) for the season helping the Cowboys with a +14 turnover differential. The Cowboys are allowing 6.53 explosive plays per game.
The Cardinals defense has done an excellent job of preventing explosive passes this season, giving up just 34 so far. They have been succeptible to giving up big runs though with 58 for the season, the 3rd most in the league. They have also done a great job of creating takeaways with 24 this season (12 ints and 12 fumbles). The Cardinals are allowing 6.13 explosive plays per game.
Cowboys: 55 explosive passes+ 43 explosive runs= 98 explosive plays.
98 explosive plays – 33 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 65.
Cardinals: 34 explosive passes+ 58 explosive runs= 92 explosive plays.
92 explosive plays – 24 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 68.
Defensive Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Toxicity is determined by subtracting the defensive total from the offensive total.
Cowboys Toxicity: Offense 84 – Defense 65 = Overall Toxicity +19
Cardinals Toxicity: Offense 88 – Defense 68= Overall Toxicity +20
Overall Advantage: Cardinals
ANY/A
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt, or ANY/A, is a formula which incorporates passing yardage, touchdowns, sacks and interceptions into a per-throw average. ANY/A has a direct correlation to scoring points and as such ranks third in win predictability.
The Cowboys lead in all three categories with an impressive 7.18 ANY/A for and a ridiculously low ANY/A against of 5.0. Their ANY/A differential is 2.18 for the season.
The Cardinals have a strong ANY/A for of 6.96 and have also done a good down in ANY/A against with a 5.8 for the season. They have a differential of 1.16.
Both QB’s individually have done very well with an ANY/A of 7.0 for Dak Prescott and 7.07 for Kyler Murray.
Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Recap
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Toxicity: Cardinals (1 out of 2 but overall edge)
DVOA: Cowboys (4 out of 6, tied for one as well)
EPA: Cardinals (5 out of 8)
ANY/A: Cowboys (3 out of 3)
Overall: Push
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